UFC 182 - By The Numbers
I’ve been an avid Boxing and UFC bettor for years (although Boxing is my number 1 sport) and one of the methods I use to determine my bets, is a more statistical approach than what most people are used to. I do not use this method to soley determine what bets I place, I use them in ADDITION to several other things. I have also used this approach to help on Kountermove, a fantasy MMA site. It has served me well in the past, and I hope that it will continue to do so in DFS.
The problem with this approach, is that it can only be applied to certain fights, due to the number of fighters making their UFC debuts, and the lack of statistics in Non-UFC fights. I like to have a minimum of 3 UFC fights, in order to consider this information valuable. Anyway, on with the show.
Advanced statistics show that Dunham lands 4.93 significant strikes per minute (SLpM) with 36% accuracy. Giving him a pace of 13.7 significant strikes THROWN per minute.
Rodrigo Damm allows opponents to connect at 43% accuracy.
13.7 strikes thrown at 43% accuracy = 5.89 significant strikes landed per minute. For 2.9 FPTS per minute.
Now, we do the same for Damm.
3.57 SLpM at 37% accuracy, for a pace of 9.6. While Dunham allows opponents to connect at 37%.
9.6 strikes thrown at 37% accuracy = 3.6 SLpM. 1.8 FPTS per minute.
Assuming the fight goes the full 15 minutes, we wouldn’t be too far outside of our minds to suggest that Dunham strikes his way to 43.5 FTPS, while Damm falls significantly shorter at 27 FPTS.
Now, we can do the same thing for takedowns.
Dunham averages 1.67 takedowns per 15 minutes at 33% accuracy. Leaving a pace of 5 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. Damm only allows his opponent to take him to the mat on 16% of attempts.
5 takedown attempts at 16% accuracy leaves us with 0.8 successful takedowns per 15 minutes for Dunham. 1.6 FPTS.
Damm averages 0.52 takedowns per 15 minutes at 16% accuracy. For 3.25 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. Dunham allows opponents to successfully take him down 22% of the time.
3.25 takedown attempts at 22% accuracy leaves us with 0.7 successful takedowns per 15 minutes. 1.4 FPTS.
Conclusion – This one is most likely to take place on the feet. Vegas has Dunham a large favorite in the fight, setting the line at -550 in his favor. The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds, with the over juiced to -205. Based on the numbers, we wouldn’t give Damm much of a shot, either. A Dunham decision could be the most likely scenario due to neither man being big punchers. But if there’s one thing that I’m sure of, it’s that the higher the pace, the higher the likelihood of a KO/TKO. I wouldn’t completely rule it out. Either way, I expect Dunham to rack up some points in this one.
Hector Lombard: 2.6 SLpM (1.3 FPTS per minute). 1.1 Takedowns Per 15 min (2.2 FPTS per 15 min).
Josh Burkman: 2.5 SLpM (1.25 FPTS per minute). 1.6 Takedowns Per 15 min (3.2 FPTS per 15 min).
Vegas odds have a -800 favorite with the over under set at 1.5 rounds juiced -150 to the over.
Statistics suggest this fight is closer than the odds. However, statistics don’t take into account that Burkman hasn’t fought in the UFC since 2008, when he lost 4 of his last 5 UFC fights. He does have experience, though, so the possibility is there. And if you’re putting in multiple lineups, he could really free you up to get another big shot in there. But I expect a Lombard victory, and wouldn’t rule out the +100 bonus for the 1st round victory.
Brad Tavares: 3.3 SLpM (1.65 FPTS per minute). 1.3 Takedowns Per 15 min (2.6 FPTS per 15 min).
Nate Marquardt: 2.7 SLpM (1.35 FPTS per minute). 1.24 Takedowns Per 15 min (2.5 FPTS per 15 min).
Vegas odds have Marquardt a -135 favorite and the over/under set at 1.5 rounds juiced -205 to the over.
Having a potential (albeit slight) advantage in both strikes and takedowns, as well as the $1,200 lower pricetag, the initial lean here would be Tavares.
Donald Cerrone: 2 SLpM (1 FPTS per minute).
Myles Jury: 3.2 SLpM (1.6 FPTS per minute).
Vegas odds have Cerrone as a -200 favorite and the over/under set at 2.5 rounds juiced -195 to the over.
I have left out the takedowns for this fight for the moment. FightMetric is showing that every fighter that has every attempted a takedown on Jury has been successful. I would think that isn’t the case, so I have gone without it for the time being.
Jon Jones: 2.4 SLpM (1.2 FPTS per minute).
Daniel Cormier: 2.8 SLpM (1.4 FPTS per minute).
Vegas odds have set Jones as a -165 favorite and the over/under is set at 4.5 rounds equal at -115 on both sides.
FightMetric suggest that Cormier has avoided ALL of the takedown attempts against him, while Jones has avoided 96%. Stalemate.
I don’t love either fighter in this fight. I think it boils down to who implements their gameplan the best. If I were sure Jones could avoid being taken down, I’d love his chances to rack up some points in the striking game. But…..I just don’t know. I will likely play neither side.
This is my first attempt at blogging this information. In the weeks to come, I’m sure I’ll clean it up, add some, and take some away. I hope you enjoyed it.