Word Around The Chevy In The Parking Lot

UFC FN 107: London

By LeRoiStephon (LeRoiStephon), Last Updated 1 month ago

What’s up dudes.. It’s time for another article from your boy LeRoiStephon.. Fights get started super early this weekend at 12:30 CST and they’re all on FightPass.. Let’s get right into it..

Word Around the Chevy In The Parking Lot is, ”LeRoiStephon Has A Bunch of Extra Content Out?!!”

MMA EDGE Fantasy Podcast Episode 11 ft “The Vanilla Gorilla” Chase Sherman

Black Market Picks Episode 7 w/Divine Prodigy Soon

Word Around the Chevy In The Parking Lot is, ”There’s A New Scoring System In Town”

Previous New
Significant Strikes 0.5 pts 0.5 pts
Advance 1 pt 3 pts
Takedowns 2 pts 5 pts
Reversals 2 pts 5 pts
Knockdowns 3 pts 10 pts
Win in Round 1 100 pts 90 pts
Win in Round 2 70 pts 70 pts
Win in Round 3 50 pts 45 pts
Win in Round 4 40 pts 40 pts
Win in Round 5 40 pts 40 pts
Win By Decision 25 pts 30 pts

There’s a new scoring system in town, and it makes wrestlers and grapple heavy contests WAY more valuable than they were in the past! Fights with lots of reversals, takedowns and passes are going to be worth just as much as fights with loads of significant strikes as takedowns, reversals and passes are worth EXPONENTIALLY more than in the past! Targeting a DOMINANT grappling performance isn’t necessarily equal to a dominant striking performance, but it’s definitely significant! Boring lay an pray fests should still be avoided as always, but if we think Demian Maia is gonna put on a clinic, he’s got significantly more worth than in the past!

Word Around the Chevy In The Parking Lot is, ”What’s A Stack??!!”

What’s all this talk about stacks and hedging?? Check out my articles, so you can know what the heck I’m talking about!!”

Art Of The Hedge Case Study #1
Art Of The Hedge Case Study #2: Weigh Ins And Your Stack
Art Of The MMA Hedge Case Study #3: Combinations and Probabilities

Word Around The Chevy In The Parking Lot Is, “Play Ratings Are Not About Predicting Fights”

GPP Play ratings are about DK value and not predicting finishes. Play ratings aren’t about who wins or loses, but instead, about a player’s value on multiple entries in comparison with his opponent in a GPP format… A guy will often be predicted to win but have a low play rating because of his potential return for his price.. A guy who is likely to return a decision at more than $11,000 will get a weak rating, while the slight dog in a close fight at $8,000 will get a strong rating… Play ratings are about the player’s potential worth considering his price in relation to his finishing potential and scoring potential!! Wins and losses really don’t count for that much here, as Wins and losses aren’t the bottom line in DFS, points are… Some guys can outscore others even in a Loss!!

Cash Play Ratings Are All About how we want to play fighters in cash games which are much different than GPP… In cash games we want to play it safe, and rack up as many sure points as possible to try and come in with more than a 50% win rate!!

GPP Play Ratings

Lock- Play Without Hedging… Play on Multiple Entries Comfortably… 100% exposure
Strong- 50% exposure
Moderate- 10-25% exposure
Favor- Have more exposure to favored fighter to unfavored fighter
Hedge- Have Equal exposure to each fighter
Weak- 5-10% exposure
Avoid- Avoid player completely.. No Exposure

Cash Play Ratings

Must Play- Must Play Because Of Expected Ownership or Outcome
Lock- Sure thing cash play!!
Strong- Should be at the top of your list for cash games
Consider- Moderate Consideration For Cash
Risky A risky proposition for cash games, no guarantees, but a solid pick if they pay off
Favor- Have more exposure to favored fighter to unfavored fighter
Weak- Not a very strong candidate for cash
Avoid- Avoid player in cash

Jimi Manuwa vs. Corey Anderson

Fight Odds: Manuwa -140, Anderson +120
Salaries: Manuwa $8,400, Anderson $7,800
Weight Class: 205
Fight Duration: 5 Championships Rounds
GPP Play Rating: Strong Anderson, Weak Manuwa
Cash Play Rating: Strongly Consider Anderson

Fight Analysis: We’ve got an awesome matchup here as we get wrestler and cardio machine Corey Anderson going up against the UK native striker Jimi Manuwa! Up to this point, Corey Anderson hasn’t shown any glaring weaknesses in his game outside of his susceptibility to leg kicks early on in his career, and his continuing susceptibility to be tagged by big power punches. Corey Anderson, being a former candidate for the Olympic wrestling team, has strong wrestling, and a striking game that is SUPER active at 5.11 sLpm, and technically sound except for one thing: although Anderson has supremely improved his striking game, because of his inexperience, he still has a tendency to get tagged by power punch counters at the end of the round. Corey Anderson outworked and outlanded both Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and also Gian Villante, but because of his striking inexperience he got tagged with big shots that cost him the fight! That being said, we’re seeing a better version of Corey Anderson every time out, and his striking is continuously improving, along with his wrestling, which is exhibiting MUCH more well timed takedowns than earlier on in his career! Jimi Manuwa is a very athletic power striker who is somewhat typical of his English background: a strong striking game with a grappling game that may be developing but is underdeveloped in comparison to his American counterparts because of the lack of wrestling on that side of the pond. Manuwa has BIG power, but he’s not highly active and his offensive wrestling game is pretty much non-existant. Because of the propensity for Anderson to get tagged by power shots, Manuwa will continuously have his chances to steal this one throughout the night, but I don’t see him outlanding Anderson, and with the deficiencies in his wrestling and grappling, I think that Anderson continuously puts the seal on rounds with super well timed takedowns. Ovince St. Preux isn’t as technical of a wrestler as Anderson and St. Preux had not problems dictating the pace when it came to the grappling and I don’t think Anderson struggles too much here either. I’m picking Anderson but Manuwa could land a power shot and finish this one.

GPP Play Strategy: Manuwa isn’t super sexy to me as unless he can get Anderson out of there within the first two frames: Manuwa really isn’t that valuable here from a DFS standpoint as he doesn’t land a lot and he doesn’t wrestle. Anderson has ALWAYS scored well, even in 3 round losses, and this is a 5 round fight. If Anderson wins this one, he could score like 200 POINTS… NO BS… He’s that active with the wrestling and his strikes that he could put up a historic score in 5 rounds.. Anderson, in his 2 losses has scored at least 50 points: how could we possibly go wrong here, and I personally think Anderson could outscore Manuwa, even in a loss

Cash Play Strategy: I love Anderson in Cash but am not so high on Manuwa unless I’m stacking..

Parking Lot Prediction: Anderson by Decision

Gunnar Nelson vs. Alan Jouban

Fight Odds: Nelson -330, Jouban +270
Salaries: Nelson $9,200, Jouban $7,000
Weight Class: 170
Fight Duration: 3 Standard Rounds
GPP Play Rating: Favor Nelson
Cash Play Rating: Consider Nelson

Fight Analysis: We’ve got two of the more exciting talents in the division on deck here in that we get Black House MMA product Alan Jouban facing off against SBG member and Conor McGregor’s traning partner, Gunnar Nelson. I think both of these guys are super talented but Alan Jouban has shown WAY more kinks in the armor than Gunnar Nelson up to this point: the most exceptional part of Nelson’s game is his top level BJJ game, BUT, when he faced talented wrestlers/grapplers like Rick Story and Demian Maia, because he didn’t have access to his most exceptional tools, he had to rely on a competent but not ELITE, low output, Karate striking game, where he only lands at an average of 2.02 sLPm.. Alan Jouban, although he made a living as a model in the past, is a straight up brawler at times. It’s not like he lacks technical skill, but he has no problem exchanging gunfire in the pocket, and he has taken loads of damage throughout his UFC career. Jouban has a susceptbility to getting hurt early and has been dropped 1 million times in the first round throughout his career: I think Jouban has corrected this fault but it is an issue. At the end of the day, Jouban’s inefficiencies are more disturbing than Nelson’s and because Jouban doesn’t have impenetrable takedown defense, I’m gonna pick Nelson to roll here and dominate the ground action to a submission.

GPP Play Strategy: This fight shouldn’t be priced this far apart as if Jouban can fend off the takedowns, he’s the better, more active, more creative striker

Cash Play Strategy: Nelson is a strong cash game consideration for me.

Parking Lot Prediction: Gunnar Nelson by Submisison Round 2

Brad Pickett vs. Marlon Vera

Fight Odds: Pickett -145, Vera +145
Salaries: Pickett $8,200, Vera $8,00
Weight Class: 135
Fight Duration: 3 Standard Rounds
GPP Play Rating: Strong Pickett, Avoid Vera
Cash Play Rating: Strongly Consider Pickett

Fight Analysis: Marlon Vera doesn’t lack talent, but honestly, this is a huge step down for Brad Picket who is at the end of a very solid career that has been taking on a lot of ranked opponents lately, while Vera is still very young and developing. IMO, this is a big step down for Pickett, that really doesn’t challenge his weak points AT ALL. Vera doesn’t have any offensive wrestling to speak of, he’s willing to fight off his back at times which means that Picket will be able to land takedowns, and Vera isn’t NEARLY as developed of a striker as Pickett. Most of Pickett’s recent losses have been to current or future title contender level fighters and Vera isn’t anywhere near that yet. I like Picket to win this however he wants, especially being his last fight, in his home country, against a short notice opponent. As long as Brad Pickett doesn’t get caught in a submisison, I don’t see how he loses this.

GPP Play Strategy: Picket is my man.. I’m riding him all the way to the top as the UFC has set him up super good in his last fight.

Cash Play Strategy: I love Pickett in Cash too.. He’s my favorite guy in this price range

Parking Lot Prediction: Brad Pickett by Decision

Makwan Amirkhani vs. Arnold Allen

Fight Odds: Amirkhani -110, Allen -110
Salaries: Amirkhani $8,300, Allen $7,900
Weight Class: 145
Fight Duration: 3 Standard Rounds
GPP Play Rating: HEDGE
Cash Play Rating: Consider Allen

Fight Analysis: Makwan Armirkhani has been on a roll lately, but I don’t like his formula for success thus far in his career. Amirkhani is a solid athlete, with a really high level wrestling game and nothing else: being one dimensional is never a long term formula for succes! Amirkhani is dynamic when he can get up against lower level fighters who really don’t have a super sound takedown defense game, but we’ve yet to see him in the Octagon with a truly dynamic athlete who could possibly defend his takedowns, force him out of his element and force him to strike: Arnold Allen is definitely that guy! The first plus part of this matchup is that Allen trains at Tristar and his focus, even before the Amirkhani fight, was his grappling: Allen is a strong athlete who already passed a tough grappling test against Alan Omer, where although he had trouble early, he was able to eventually adjust to the elite takedown game of Omer and submit Omer, one of the better pure wrestlers in the division. It’s my belief that once Amirkhani is forced to strike, although his athleticism covers up his insufficiencies as a striker to an extent, he’s a fish out of water and that’s why I think Allen stuffs his takedowns and picks him apart to a decision or a stoppage.

GPP Play Strategy: One of these guys is going to be on a winning lineup tonight whether it’s going to be Allen or Amirkhani so this fight is a must play… I believe in the Allen side of things so he will be my heavier play, but if Amirkhani wins, he’s DEFINATELY on the winning lineup with all the takedowns and passes he will rack up..

Cash Play Strategy: I like Allen so much I feel comfortable playing him in cash

Parking Lot Prediction: Allen by Decision

Joe Duffy vs. Reza Medadi

Fight Odds: Duffy -670, Medadi +475
Salaries: Duffy $9,700, Medadi $6,500
Weight Class: 155
Fight Duration: 3 Standard Rounds
GPP Play Rating: Moderate Medadi, Weak Duffy
Cash Play Rating: Consider Medadi

Fight Analysis: This is pretty much a two true outcome fight for me: Either Duffy wins this one by keeping it standing and picking Medadi apart, OR, Medadi is able to get his high level grappling game going, and he dominates Duffy on the mat like Dustin Porier did. That being said, Duffy has a chance to gain a submission as he’s VERY slick off his back. Because Duffy is at TriStar, I am confident that he’s going to be able to come in here, stop the takedown game of Medadi and take home the victory.

GPP Play Strategy: Duffy is facing too tough of an opponent to be this expensive. He’s talented and should win this, but he’s probably going to struggle to get his offense going early and he’s not going to land a bunch of takedowns so he PROBABLY won’t pay off his salary. Medadi is firmly in play as Duffy has struggled with his defensive wrestling in the past and is a willing grappler off his back. You should have at least one Medadi lineup this weekend.

Cash Play Strategy: Medadi has a fair chance at winning so at his price, he opens up EVERYTHING else… I love the idea of utilizing Medadi and then building around him. It’s not even a ridiculous punt as Medadi beat Michael Johnson which speaks volumes of his skill.

Parking Lot Prediction: Duffy by Decision

Francisimar Barroso vs. Darren Stewart

Fight Odds: Barroso +160, Stewart -185
Salaries: Barroso $7,400, Stewart $8,800
Weight Class: 205
Fight Duration: 3 Standard Rounds
GPP Play Rating: Avoid Fight
Cash Play Rating: Avoid Fight

Fight Analysis: This fight seemed pretty worthless on paper, and it proved to be going in the direction of being exactly that until Darren Stewart landed an accidental headbutt and the fight was scored a TKO on the night but later, this was corrected and the fight was scored a No Contest and rightfully so. Darren Stewart is extremely active and pushes an awesome pace, BUT, his wrestling isn’t very elite and Barroso stuffed all his takedowns which relegated him to cage grinding. This is who Darren Stewart really is and I don’t believe there’s too much that’s going to change that in the near future although he may indeed develop a more skilled wrestling game in the future. Barroso is the better striker by a bit but I just don’t know how long that Stewart will allow this to take place at range. I don’t see many takedowns being landed here, and I don’t like the possibilities of any type of KO type of finish… This should be an ugly scrap with loads of cage grinding so I’m staying away, but since Stewart took it once, I’m picking him to take it again!!

GPP Play Strategy: I’m Avoiding this one all together and if it costs me it just does..

Cash Play Strategy: I’m avoiding this in cash too

Parking Lot Prediction: Stewart by Decision

Daniel Omielanczuk vs. Timothy Johnson

Fight Odds: Omielanczuk +160, Johnson -185
Salaries: Omielanczuk $7,700, Johnson $$8,500
Weight Class: HEAVYWEIGHT
Fight Duration: 3 Standard Rounds
GPP Play Rating: Weak Johnson, Weak Omielanczuk
Cash Play Rating: Avoid This Fight In Cash

Fight Analysis: This is an intriguing fight in reality in some ways, but this is absolutely a worthless tilt for fantasy, despite the fact that it’s a heavyweight fight. Johnson is a very skilled wrestler with a Division 2 background, while Omielanczuk has a deep Judo background that makes him a tough to take and hold down as well. Because Johnson has a significant height advantage of 3” and a reach advantage of 4”, and should carry about 30 lbs of weight advantage, I think Johnson bullies his way to a hard fought decision. Omielanczuk is super hard to finish, and so is Johnson, so I don’t see the finish here.

GPP Play Strategy: I’m saying it right now.. Nobody from this fight will be on a winning lineup. If anyone is though, it’ll be Omielanczuk by KO, but that’s a longshot.

Cash Play Strategy: Avoid This Fight In Cash

Parking Lot Prediction: Johnson By Decision

Mark Diakiese vs. Teemu Packalen

Fight Odds: Diakiese -230, Packalen +190
Salaries: Diakiese $8,900, Packalen $7,400
Weight Class: 155
Fight Duration: 3 Standard Rounds
GPP Play Rating: Favor Packalen
Cash Play Rating: Consider Packalen

Fight Analysis: I think this is a very interesting fight. We get grapple heavy fighter Teemu Packalen going up against super athlete and prospect Mark Diakiese. The most exceptional part of Diakiese’s game is his athleticism which is closely followed by his wrestling game! Diakiese is very explosive and so although he doesn’t have any elite wrestling chops, if you don’t have the strongest takedown defense, Diakiese is probably going to find a way to drag you down. Although Diakiese is a super athlete and has a nice power wrestling game, his striking is very mediocre and he gets a bit lost on the feet at times due to his inexperience. Teemu Packalen has been very impressive up to this point, knocking out Thiabault Gouti despite the lack of a big striking background, and almost upsetting French product Mickael Lebout on short notice. Teemu Packalen has a brown belt in BJJ and showed some strong wrestling and grappling in his matchup with Lebout who had some pretty decent takedown defense. This is very significant as two fights in a row, Diakiese has been dragged to the mat and controlled and I believe that it’s an indicator that he might just be a pretty typical English product; strong kickboxing and maybe offensive wrestling, but weak defensive wrestling overall. If Packalen has been improving his grappling game, he has an excellent oppurtunity to exploit the holes in Diakiese’s wrestling game and I personally think he will.

GPP Play Strategy: I don’t believe we’re at any lack of good low priced options, but nonetheless, in a grappling heavy affair, I am of the belief that Packalen is FIRMLY in play, but so is Diakiese. We should see a million wonderful grappling exchanges,and whoever wins this should come out with an excellent final mark..

Cash Play Strategy: Packalen is in consideration here in a fight that should be full of grappling exchanges.

Parking Lot Prediction: Packalen by Decision

Vincente Luque vs. Leon Edwards

Fight Odds: Luque -125, Edwards +105
Salaries: Luque $8,700, Edwards $7,500
Weight Class: 170
Fight Duration: 3 Standard Rounds
GPP Play Rating: Favor Edwards
Cash Play Rating: Consider Edwards

Fight Analysis: It’s hard to make an honest assessment concerning this fight because these are two highly skilled competitors who are in their best form, but Edwards is coming off of a dominating performance against Albert Tumenov and I think that’s extremely impressive and I’m going to therefore pick him to win. Luque has the power advantage here, and he’s also the better grappler, but Edwards passed a tougher test in Tumenov, so I’m going to pick him to pass this one as well..

GPP Play Strategy: I will have little Luque exposure at this point but plan to have plenty of Edwards..

Cash Play Strategy: Edwards is a cash game consideration as he will probably at least net you 30 points here.

Parking Lot Prediction: Edwards by Decision

Tom Breese vs. Oluwale Bamgbose

Fight Odds: Breese -300, Bamgbose +250
Salaries: Breese $9,000, Bamgbose $7,200
Weight Class: 185
Fight Duration: 3 Standard Rounds
GPP Play Rating: Favor Breese
Cash Play Rating: Slightly Consider Breese

Fight Analysis: We’ve basically got a striker vs. grappler matchup and although Breese is the deserving favorite, an experienced and powerful striker and athlete like Bamgbose is going to have every chance in the world to land the upset, especially considering that Breese has left Tristar because he wants to employ a more bruising style. I really like the improvements Breese has been making but Bamgbose is SUPER dangerous as a striker and could very well finish Breese here as he’s been making big improvements to his defensive grappling game. That being said, I expect Breese to consistently ground Bamgbose either to a decision or a sub.

GPP Play Strategy: Breese is the heavier play for me, but I will have some Bamgbose this weekend…

Cash Play Strategy: I kind of like Breese in cash but think it’s risky too..

Parking Lot Prediction: Breese by Decision

Brett Johns vs. Ian Entwistle

Fight Odds: Johns -405, Entwistle +325
Salaries: Johns $9,300, Entwistle $6,900
Weight Class: 135
Fight Duration: 3 Standard Rounds
GPP Play Rating: Strong Johns, Avoid Entwistle
Cash Play Rating: Strongly Consider Johns

Fight Analysis: Ian Entwistle is a two outcome fighter and he refuses to change. He will land his heel hook, or he will be pounded into the ground and finished. Lately, Entwistle has been pounded into the ground and finishes again and again because he refuses to adapt his game to the UFC level of fighting.. Johns is a well rounded and talented prospect, so I believe that he defends the heel hooks and beats the tar out of Entwistle to a finish

GPP Play Strategy: All Johns no Entwistle for me.. I’m tired of looking for that Hail Mary Entwistle heel hook, so I’m completely off of him

Cash Play Strategy: I think I’m locking Johns in in cash

Parking Lot Prediction: Johns by KO/TKO RD 1

Scott Askham vs. Brad Scott

Fight Odds: Askham -145, Scott +125
Salaries: Askham $8,600, Scott $7,800
Weight Class: 185
Fight Duration: 3 Standard Rounds
GPP Play Rating: Favor Scott
Cash Play Rating: Consider Scott

Fight Analysis: I really like this fight as Askham wins big when he does win, and he kind of gets trounced when he doesn’t. Askham never is going to put on a boring fight. I’m not super confident in either fighter, but IMO, Brad Scott has less technical deficiencies than Askham and has fought a slightly higher grade of competition so I’m picking him. Askham can be tagged, he can be taken down and those have never really been knocks on Scott: Scott is simply not the most gifted athlete in the world and that’s why he hasn’t had more UFC success..

GPP Play Strategy: I’d basically hedge this one, playing a little more Scott because he’s a little more flexible.

Cash Play Strategy: I’d consider Scott as he’s super cheap in a near even fight… I like Scott’s chances but must do more film review

Parking Lot Prediction: Scott by Decision

Lina Landsberg vs. Lucie Pudilova

Fight Odds: Landsberg -320, Pudilova +260
Salaries: Landsberg $9,100, Pudilova $7,100
Weight Class: 135
Fight Duration: 3 Standard Rounds
GPP Play Rating: Avoid This Fight, Weak Pudilova
Cash Play Rating: Avoid This Fight

Fight Analysis: On paper this fight doesn’t seem very sexy as both of these girls styles and skillsets are ANTI-DFS and in reality this fight isn’t DFS sexy either.. These two already faced off in 2015 and it basically consisted of Landsberg landing Muay Thai Strikes from the clinch and grinding Pudilova into the cage. Seeing as though Landsberg is a pretty acomplished Muay Thai fighter, this makes perfect sense, BUT that was about two years ago and maybe Pudilova has improved since then. Landsberg doesn’t lack skill at a distance, but she definitely is at a more pronounced advantage in the clinch and this is usually where she wants to take her opponent. Pudilova doesn’t have any high level skill set that I’m aware of up to this point so I see this fight going much of the same way with few differences.

GPP Play Strategy: The only way I could see this fight being worth something is if Pudilova can pull off the upset.. In a low level fight like this, it could be worth the punt honestly, but I’m pretty much avoiding this fight ALL Together.. I don’t see either of these girls making a winning GPP lineup..

Cash Play Strategy: AVOID This Fight

Parking Lot Prediction: Landsberg by Decision

About the Author

Comments

  • misterfunn

    Johns/Entwhistle thoughts ?

  • LeRoiStephon

    Sorry about that… I completely forgot about that fight… Added it now though.. Should be all gravy… All Johns, no Entwistle

  • blackdirkdiggler

    Thanks for the great information as usual!

  • blackdirkdiggler

    By the way, i was listening to your mma edge podcast on stitcher, and there are sections where the audio is very choppy and u cant understand anything. Just wanted to let u know.

  • grover123

    When did the breeze fight get cancelled?? Man that screwed me good. Did It just get cancelled. Or did I miss the info???

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