UFC Vegas 11/28

UFC on ESPN 18
Luke Sanders vs Joseph Nathan Maness
Luke Sanders is coming off a knockout win against Renan Barao in February of 2019. Luke Sanders comes out swinging and swings hard. Against Barao he wasn’t connecting much early and ate some shots before finally connecting and knocking his opponent out. In all of his fights I’ve seen he likes to stand and exchange until someone falls down. Sanders hasn’t shown to be any good on the ground but that really shouldn’t matter in this fight. Maness has a boxing background as well as wrestling. The only route in my opinion for Maness to win this fight is by grinding Sanders up against the cage and winning boring rounds. I don’t think Maness is going to try and stand and trade with Sanders, because if he does he will likely get knocked out. I’m not very high on this fight, as I think it will be up against the cage for large portions. I think Sanders has the higher ceiling and higher chance to finish so I will have more of him but won’t have much of either these guys.

Su Mudaerji vs Malcolm Gordon
Malcolm Gordon is coming off a submission loss against Amir Albazi. Gordon really isn’t that good on the feet, and on the ground where he has been better previously, looked very poor in his UFC debut. Su Mundaerji is a fairly one-dimensional fighter. He is going to look to stand and strike, and is very active on the feet. He hasn’t shown us that he is any good once the fight goes to the ground, and his TD defense isn’t great either. Gordon will likely try to take this to the ground early, as that is where he has the advantage. Gordon is a low level fighter, so even though Su has poor TD defense I’m not even sure that Gordon can take him down and keep him there. I think Gordon’s only route to a win is by submission here so I will have some exposure to him. Su Mudaerji is one of the most expensive guys on the slate, but I’m not that high on him. He has shown finishing ability before the UFC but it hasn’t translated over yet, and I’m not sure if it will, but since his opponent is so bad on the feet he is definitely live for a finish. I will have shares of both guys since the winner is likely to win ITD.

Kai Kamaka vs Jonathan Pearce
Kai Kamaka is coming off a solid decision win in his UFC debut against Tony Kelley. Kamaka is a high paced fighter, and a great striker for his size. He will dominate in this fight against Pearce. Pearce keeps his hands low when he fights, which doesn’t set up well for someone who will be throwing in volume against him. Kamaka also throws in volume in the clinch. Kamaka is going to outpace and outclass Pearce in this matchup and will likely roll to a win and is also live for a finish. Kamaka is priced up this week but I think he will pay off his price even in a decision with his output. I will have a few shares of Pearce, as his only route to victory here is by knockout because I don’t see him winning rounds.

Racheal Ostovich vs Gina Manzany
This is a very low-level fight with both girls having losing records in the UFC, as well as they are both coming off a loss. Both fighters are going to look to grapple and roll around until one of them rolls into a submission. I don’t really have a lean in this fight but I don’t think Manzany should be that heavy of a favorite as Draftkings pricing suggests. This fight can definitely end ITD, so having exposure to this fight is probably smart, but I would limit it. I don’t think either fighter is any good but the fact that Ostovich is much lower priced makes her more attractive than her opponent. I will have more Ostovich than Manzany, but solely because of pricing.

Martin Day vs Anderson Dos Santos
Martin Day is 0-2 in the UFC but is a high output fighter. He is coming off a knockout loss against Davey Grant in July, where he got KO’d in the third round. Anderson Dos Santos is on a two-fight losing streak, both losses coming by decision. This fight has potential to be very high paced, as both fighters have shown to stand and exchange in the past. I think Dos Santos is going to try to take down Day, as his advantage in this fight is on the ground. I’m not overly impressed by the takedown defense of Day, but I’m also not too impressed with the TD accuracy of Dos Santos, so I’m thinking this fight will be standing for a majority of the time. I favor Day in the striking department, but he does eat a good amount of shots. This will be a back and forth fight where I think the winner will score well so I will have exposure to both. I think Day will win by decision, but both are live for a finish.

Ashlee Evans-Smith vs Norma Dumont
Ashlee Evans-Smith is coming off a decision loss in February 2019. She is a high paced fighter, while striking at 4.86 SS/min and she also gets hit at about that rate too. Her opponent, Dumont, is coming off a knockout loss to Megan Anderson in February this year, where she was KO’d in the first round. She has an advantage on the ground in this fight, so she is going to try and shoot for TDs. On the feet I give the nod to Evans-Smith, but not by much. I lean Evans-Smith in this fight, as I think she is going to win rounds on output alone. Dumont is live for a submission, and if she can get this to the ground, she can also win rounds based on ground control time. This isn’t a fight I’m likely to target much on DraftKings, but if I do, I will be close to 50/50 on exposure.

Spike Carlyle vs Bill Algeo
Spike Carlyle is coming off a decision loss against Billy Quarantillo. In that fight he came out fast paced shooting for takedowns and swinging with everything. He didn’t finish Quarantillo in the first round, and then proceeded to gas out in later rounds. Carlyle is a tough guy, but I question his fight IQ. If nothing has changed since his last fight that we don’t know about, he will likely come out in this fight looking for a first-round finish as well. Bill Algeo is also coming off a high paced decision loss back in August against Ricardo Lamas. If Algeo can survive the first-round onslaught from Carlyle, I think he has a strong chance to win. Algeo also throws in volume, but has a much better cardio than Carlyle. Bill Algeo is easy to takedown but is also a black belt in BJJ, so Carlyle may be a bit more careful in shooting for takedowns. Algeo is a tough guy and has also shown to be a good counter puncher, which will be essential in this fight. I will have shares of both, because if Carlyle doesn’t win in the first round I think Algeo will take over since he has a better gas tank. This has fight of the night potential, and I will likely be heavily exposed.

Takashi Sato vs Miguel Baeza
Takashi Sato is coming off a quick TKO against Jason Witt back in June. Takashi Sato Is a durable fighter, and a very good striker. He is fighting Miguel Baeza who is undefeated in his career with 7 of his 9 wins coming by finish. He throws deadly leg kicks, and has even had a TKO by leg kicks (against Hector Aldana). Sato is quick and light on his feet, and Baeza is going to look to take his legs out early and often with his leg kicks. Sato is quick and has the power to knock his opponent out, but it will become more difficult as the fight goes on as I think he will have less power from his legs. Baeza is a very efficient striker and should be able to ware his opponent down as the fight goes on. I think Baeza wins by knockout in the second or third rounds, but Sato is tough to finish so this fight could go the distance as well. Sato is live for a knockout, so I will have shares of him as well.

Parker Porter vs Josh Parisian
Parker Porter is coming off a knockout loss to Chris Daukaus back in August. Parker Porter is athletic for his size and can move pretty well in the octagon. His chin isn’t much but he showed that he can take some shots and still respond with power. Josh Parisian is coming off a first-round knockout win in Dana White’s Contender Series in August. Parisian is just a slightly better version of Parker Porter, he is younger, taller, more athletic, and more durable. This fight is likely to end by a knockout, and since it is a heavyweight fight it is variable so I will have shares of both. That being said, I think Porter is outmatched everywhere in this fight and I think Parisian will win by knockout.

Anthony Smith vs Devin Clark
Anthony Smith is coming off 2 straight losses, most recently coming against Aleksander Rakic. Smith is definitely on the decline of his career, but he is still saying he wants to work his way back up. This is the perfect opponent for him to build his confidence back up, as it is likely his softest opponent in a few years. Devin Clark is on a 2-fight win streak, both wins coming by decision. Clark is likely going to look to take this fight to the floor, and should be able to find success, as Smith doesn’t defend takedowns very well. This fight won’t be very high paced, but now that it is a 5-round fight, draws some interest. I think the likelihood of Smith finding a finish goes up now, as he has more time to feel out the fight, while also racking up SS along the way. It’s rare to have pricing like this in a 5-round fight, so I will likely take advantage of it, and I like the side of Smith more. I think Smith will now have enough time on his feet to really ware down the chin of Clark and knock him out at some point during the fight. If Smith is smart and doesn’t ware himself down in the first couple rounds, he has a very high ceiling and can finish Clark. I think Smith wins ITD here.

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  • korfhagehDFS

    The Curtis Blaydes vs Derrick Lewis fight has been cancelled, so now we are down to only 10 fights for Saturday night.

  • FitFantasyGod

    Great analysis as always, too bad about the Blaydes fight I was looking forward too it. Let’s redeem ourselves for Perez last week! Also check out my NFL article on game stacks I just wrote if you want!

  • korfhagehDFS

    Yeah that fight was going to be a banger, was really excited to go all in on Blaydes and watch him dominate the wrestling. I’ll check it out, goodluck tonight man

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