Volatility and how to Capitalize
In looking for something to do while watching Sunday Night Football last night, I started breaking down past winning lineups in the NBA contests.
There were some interesting results, but probably the biggest piece of information I gleaned from my unintentional discovery was exactly where the fantasy points are coming from in GPP winning lineups.
I broke down all the positions, going from PG all the way down to C. When I broke them down, I started looking at the maximum points and the minimum points for each position.
Then, I ended up averaging across the entire player pool for each position. I won’t bore everyone with the remaining math processes I used to come to this conclusion, but the results from the GPP winning lineups do indicate that this information is accurate to some degree (at least for now).
Let’s go ahead and back track a little bit and ask the question “what is volatility?” I define volatility as being the difference between player minimum points scored, and player maximum points scored. The greater the difference, the greater the volatility, and the greater the volatility, the greater the potential as a GPP play.
A little bit of info regarding the numbers that I use. The percentages are essentially a consistency ranking, the higher the percentage the more consistent they are and the less volatile they are. The volatility rankings are between one and two, and the higher the number, the more volatile they are. Occasionally on any 1 given slate, certain positions are going to be outside those parameters. What you do with this number will be exclusively on you.
Without futher Adieu, here are the volatility rankings for tonight’s slate. Broken down by position:
This is just the beginning of my journey to develop the perfect lineup. My projections are regularly hitting within .5-1 fantasy points. I’m happy to say that this means that my projections are accurate enough to be used by the government. Because of the accuracy of my projection system, I should IN THEORY be winning. However I am never placing at the top of any GPP, the reason is one I have outlined above. In order to win you need to capture the right players at the right time. I am hoping and believing that ranking volatility will help get myself over that hump from decent to good.
Tonight I am going to be beginning the task of determining the best way to use this information; keeping it simple and using this information in a way that makes the most sense. The simplest way is going to be building multiple lineups around the SF position, as the position represents the most consistency on any given night with tonight being no exception. While you can’t with 100% certainty count on production from any player, I feel comfortable saying that SF will be a spot that will generate production.
After that I am going to be looking for low salary point guards and centers who can and have gone off. If the price is low you only need about 5x value, however the low end of fantasy production for centers is about 7. Which makes it a bit scarier to take chances on the unknowns and risk missing out on some of the guys like James Harden or Russell Westbrook.
And finally, I will be filling in the remaining players using my standard research procedure. I always say I am going to keep my blog going, and I never do. But I have had to give my two weeks notice at work due to some very serious health issues, therefore I will be updating and improving my process between doctors appointments and hopefully I can crack the code.