Week 17 Props
Dede Westbrook Over 3.5 Receptions (-145)
If you have not read my write ups before, this paragraph appears in all of them. Basically, there are three things I want you to know before you read on. There are no such things as “locks”, I don’t bet more than 1% of my bankroll on any play and you will never get rich picking games. If you are cool with that, you will most likely be betting sports at this time next year since you most likely understand that this a long game we play.
I have interacted with a few guys on Twitter that think it is silly to only bet 1% of my bankroll on my plays and that is fine. To each their own, but I am comfortable with how much I am wagering and that is what is most important. If you are a little more risk averse, then bump it up a little if you are comfortable doing so. I always say, if a loss ruins your day and causes you to act like an idiot to your friends, family, pets, etc, then you are betting too much. You should be able to move on with little to no life disruption and if you can’t, then I would look to the amount of the wager as a cause for concern. For me, that number is $200 per game this season and maybe one day it will be more, but for now, it is what it is. I can remember a time when that number was $25 so I am thankful to be where I am.
My first play of the week will be on Dede Westbrook of the Jacksonville Jaguars. His receptions number seems a bit low at 3.5 and I am willing to pay the -145 for it. The Houston Texans have turned into a pass funnel over the last month or so and I think that helps Westbrook more than anyone. It sounds funny to say, but having Blake Bortles under center actually helps us in this game because there is not many guys on dead teams that will be more motivated this Sunday. You always have to wonder about motivation in Week 17 and Bortles will be looking to grip and rip this Sunday after losing his job earlier in the season.
Bortles has been a walking punchline his entire career but there is reason to believe Blake will be successful this Sunday. First of all, in the last 5 games, the Houston Texans have seen four different quarterbacks throw for 300+ yards against them including fellow backup, Nick Foles, last week when he ripped them for 471 yards. Given the stout run defense and the poor secondary play, it makes sense that Jacksonville will put the ball in the air more than usual especially without lead back Leonard Fournette who is highly unlikely to play. Also, Blake Bortles pass attempts are sitting at 31.5 (-140) at 5Dimes right now so I am not the only one who thinks the Jaguars will take an aerial approach Sunday. I would not be shocked to see that number go higher.
Now I am not crazy enough to take a Blake Bortles prop but I am interested in Dede Westbrook reception total since we only need four to win. In the last three weeks, only nine other receivers in the NFL have seen a higher target share than Westbrook’s 27% so if Blake Bortles were to throw the ball 31.5 times on Sunday (I know he can’t do that but work with me here), that means Westbrook can be expected to see at least 8 targets. I can live with eight targets when you consider that his ADOT has been only 7.8 yards in the last three games, which is short enough for Bortles to hit him, and his catch rate is 67% on the season.
We don’t even need the game script to go our way in this one but if the Jaguars are forced to play from behind, we should fly over this total. With the Texans being in “must win” mode and the Jacksonville defense being what they are now, it is reasonable to think the Jaguars will not be able to “sit” on the ball at any point in this game. I believe this is prop worth a bet and I am willing to lay 1% of my bankroll on the counter to prove it.
Thanks for reading and good luck Sunday. If you would like more from me, you can always follow me on Twitter @TheSharkWins.
I will be posting more prop plays for this Sunday as well as a few sides, totals, teams totals, teasers and a parlay on SharksofVegas.com. You are more than welcome to follow me there as well.