Week 2 DFS Stacks (ATL/OAK) and Favorite Plays So Far
When building a tournament lineup, there’s no doubt that stacks of correlation can yield great results in tournaments. A lot of sharps will tell you about the recent trends in shoot-outs for NFL games, and the QB/WR combo, or what have you, for maximizing your upside. We want to maximize upside. So let’s take a look at week 2.
(At the end of the article I’ve highlighted my favorite plays to this point, consisting of NYG/NO, TB/ARZ, ATL/OAK, and other price points and big plays that I think could factor in to your and my decisions)
ATL @ OAK (Over/Under=50)
*I love this stack right here. Carr/Cooper won’t sink you in any tournament and I think are approaching a Roethlisberger/Brown reliability quotient. Julio Jones, the top WR in Atlanta, will also be overlooked as he “underperformed” last week. We have the (third) Over/Under of the week, and it’s only .5 points lower than the second game. TJ Hernandez had some statistical gold on how the top Over/Under game totals take a few weeks to catch up for their reliability standards in terms of points scored. The Falcons showed their vulnerable as Mike Evans beat them deep, and TB put up 31 points. On the road, I’m expecting ATL to be very vulnerable in OAK’s home opener. Cooper didn’t score last week, so I think he’s a top (3) play of the entire slate for me. Also, OAK could not keep up with Cooks or Snead, and there’s no reason Julio can’t get you 10+ catches and a TD this week. All plays should vault or keep you in GPP consideration.
*Ah, the game stack. Well, it worked for NO/OAK last week. If you stacked crabtree/cooper/brees/cooks/snead….you had 5/9 or 5/10 players already needed to keep you in the running for a top tournament finish. Sure, Crabtree and Sanu offer limited upside as did Crabtree/Snead last week….however, in a fast paced game with 50 points expected, you CAN expect that Sanu and Crabtree will get their fair share of target and yardage opportunities…as Snead and Crabtree did last week. Sanu is still undervalued, and looked great last week vs ATL but still flying way under the radar.
*****Worth a shot*** *
RB- Latavius Murray (OAK) (goal-line vultures from the passing game, caught several passes last week..could be very sneaky with Cooper/Carr/Murray/Jones/Sanu…but again…Crabtree is the preferred passing option so it may not be worth the risk here)
RB- Devonta Freeman (ATL) (injury questions but everyone is giving up on him; maybe with good reason, possible PPR threat if Oakland comes up to a big lead)
- (ATL/OAK, TB/ARZ, NO/NYG)**
Favorite plays so far for our GPP process; price exclusive
QB- Eli Manning (NYG). (If I’m making 10 lineups, I’m also exclusively going Manning here. The Saints just aren’t showing me anything defensively, and with Breaux out, we just haven’t seen anything warranting fading the Saints secondary. I’m going against poor defenses vs. good offenses until they show me they can stop somebody) 53.5 Total Projected Over/Under. If I’m being contrarian I’ll throw a couple cheap lineups in with an inexpensive QB just in case that inexpensive QB also goes off and I can get lucky and win with a stacked WR/RB lineup that is pricy (I.e. Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks).
RB1- David Johnson (ARZ) (I don’t know how I feel about spending up at RB- I don’t like to often. If you look at Todd Gurley, last year when priced over $7,000…he never delivered to expectation despite being a stud in ideal matchups. RB production is so TD dependent I think that’s why. That being said, the fact that DJ is Palmer’s second favorite option arguably first; in the passing game; I can get behind him this week as a FLEX WR/RB position. He even lined up in the slot. He makes the exception as an expensive RB to pay up for this week. If this game is an ARZ blowout win or shootout, DJ could win a GPP.
RB2- Doug Martin (TB) From our list of games I’m not looking for another RB just yet- not enough interest for GPPs because they don’t get enough touches. That being said, I like Doug Martin to come close to being a great GPP play. He will get you touches in the rushing and passing game, and methinks people are sleeping on Tampa Bay. If Martin’s volatility results in 2TDs in a shootout, he’ll be a very efficient play. P.S. Charles Sims is a great value play if you believe ARZ wins this one big and expect TB to pass heavy while trailing. He likely won’t produce enough to win you a GPP, but you never know, and makes a solid overall play with a degree of risk.
WR1- Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) (You can’t fade him. How often does he go up against Drew Brees? The game exploded last year, there’s no reason it can’t again and I think it likely will. If it doesn’t, I’m OK knowing the process was right on)
WR2- Amari Cooper (OAK) (We should notice a trend here, and that is, WR1 target monsters with good QBs are likely to give you upside and less likely to give you a dud in case they fail to score. If Cooper doesn’t score 2 TD’s, but gives you 10 for 120, you can live with that. The Carr/Cooper connection is real and Atlanta just isn’t…look what TB just did.
WR3- Larry Fitzgerald (ARZ) (Top WR1 in a game where ARZ is favored and the game is expected to eclipse 50pts. Fitz looked great last week, and with his (Q) status for his knee, I think a lot of people will be off him. Assuming he’s fine, he looked fine Sunday, he should have a chance for elite targets in a game that should have a lot of offense and a faster pace.
TE- Coby Fleener (NO) (The Giants still struggle across the middle and deep in their secondary as Witten had no problem catching passes from Dak Prescott last week. Fleener can only go up from here after last week’s dud, and should get targets, and deep targets, in a game with the highest total on the slate from vigorous passing offenses. All it takes is for Fleener to burn the NY safeties once for a 45 yard gain or TD. Add in 8 receptions across the middle and you’ve got a Millionaire Maker winner right here. At $3,900 on DFK, i’m willing to go 90% in on Fleener. Though, do tread with some caution, if he just isn’t up for playing football this year, then Cooks and Snead will take the reins and you should look elsewhere at TE. Maybe Jesse James for (PIT) if you want a value option.
FLEX- Brandin Cooks (NO) It’s a tough call with Fitz or Cooks….I just get nervous with Brees on a grass field, and with Cooks not being able to make cuts as well not being on turf. But sure, the Giants can’t cover the middle of the field, and Cooks make for a great slot target guy this week if game flow remains fast paced and with lots of offense. Again, if the game is nip/tuck and your team needed to score and keep pace…wouldn’t you want Brees to throw or OBJ to catch passes? I would if I was coach.
DEF- NONE Avoid all teams here as the Over/Under is too high for all games and all offenses look solid. If you are playing 150 lineups though, why not try Arizona? They can do miraculous things at home sometimes and Patrick Peterson can score TDs.
Stay tuned for TEN/DET and CIN/PIT…..the latter game should shift hundreds of thousands of dollars this weekend depending on whether or not PIT/CIN shoots out or grinds low.
Be well and never play more than you can afford to lose.