Week 2 NFL DFS (Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh)
When building a tournament lineup, there’s no doubt that stacks of correlation can yield great results in tournaments. A lot of sharps will tell you about the recent trends in shoot-outs for NFL games, and the QB/WR combo, or what have you, for maximizing your upside. We want to maximize upside. So let’s take a look at week 2.
(At the end of the article I’ve highlighted my favorite plays to this point, consisting of NYG/NO, TB/ARZ, ATL/OAK, CIN/PIT and other price points and big plays that I think could factor in to your and my decisions)
*This game should be a good one, we have a 48.5 total, and offenses that can be explosive. Again, I like going with the home team QB. Pittsburgh is favored, but a lot of the sharps money is coming in on the Bengals. Antonio Brown performs better at home and is going to gobble up targets as usual. AJ Green, is as integral to the CIN offense as Brown is for PIT. PIT showed it was liable to the deep and intermediate pass against WAS last week where Desean Jackson had a big game and was open with ease. AJ Green also has reverse road splits that are extreme- where he scores more in away games throughout his career. I expect this game to be a battle and lower scoring, but then again, it could go off the rails with Green and Brown.
*Notice how I only have one Bengal here. I generally don’t do this strategy, however, AJ Green is such a big part of the offense for CIN, and there are other middling options that aren’t exceeding in targets. Uzomah and Lafell and Bernard, are essentially a coin flip. Tyler Boyd is also the slot WR who should get some targets. I just don’t see any other Bengal besides AJ Green getting several targets needed to win a GPP. DeAngelo Williams has a role similar to DJ for ARZ. He will get lots of touches AND be active in the passing game in a high-scoring projected affair. I don’t like any CIN RB’s because
*****Worth a shot****
Eli Rogers (PIT) (WR) – Eli Rogers looks good, he just will have way less targets than Brown and Williams so I don’t like him as a GPP candidate. He’s good but one of his TDs last week was from a very lucky redzone bounce intended for another WR. Take that away and he’s not a GPP winner.
Jesse James (PIT) (TE)- Pittsburgh likes to pass, and Heath Miller secured lots of targets vs CIN last year, however, again James has his potential capped with the offense running almost entirely through Williams and Brown. You don’t want 15 points as a ceiling to win a GPP, but if you’re in need of a cheap value play you could do a lot worse than James.
(CIN/PIT, ATL/OAK, TB/ARZ, NO/NYG)
48.5, 50, 50.5, 53.5
The top four games of the slate for projected points all have sharp money coming in on the OVER
CIN, OAK, ARZ, NO….is where the sharp money is coming in for straight up victories
Favorite plays so far for our GPP process; price exclusive
QB- Eli Manning (NYG). (If I’m making 10 lineups, I’m also exclusively going Manning here. The Saints just aren’t showing me anything defensively, and with Breaux out, we just haven’t seen anything warranting fading the Saints secondary. I’m going against poor defenses vs. good offenses until they show me they can stop somebody) 53.5 Total Projected Over/Under. If I’m being contrarian I’ll throw a couple cheap lineups in with an inexpensive QB just in case that inexpensive QB also goes off and I can get lucky and win with a stacked WR/RB lineup that is pricy (I.e. Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks).
RB1- David Johnson (ARZ) (I don’t know how I feel about spending up at RB- I don’t like to often. If you look at Todd Gurley, last year when priced over $7,000…he never delivered to expectation despite being a stud in ideal matchups. RB production is so TD dependent I think that’s why. That being said, the fact that DJ is Palmer’s second favorite option arguably first; in the passing game; I can get behind him this week as a FLEX WR/RB position. He even lined up in the slot. He makes the exception as an expensive RB to pay up for this week. If this game is an ARZ blowout win or shootout, DJ could win a GPP.
RB2- Deangelo Williams (PIT) Williams is such a huge part of the PIT offense and has the ability to catch passes and break off long runs. He’s getting targeted like a WR1 AND he runs the football effectively. He’s almost a must-start regardless of matchup, and the matchup is fine with 48.5 points expected.
WR1- Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) (You can’t fade him. How often does he go up against Drew Brees? The game exploded last year, there’s no reason it can’t again and I think it likely will. If it doesn’t, I’m OK knowing the process was right on)
WR2- Antonio Brown (PIT) – Brown is arguably the best WR in the NFL. He should tear it up as usual. I only slightly prefer OBJ this week. However, Brandon Marshall was slightly impeded last week by a CIN defense that can be solid at times- definitely more imposing than WAS. That being said, you can’t go wrong by playing Brown at home, really ever. The process lends itself to success for him and his target share and ability.
WR3- Amari Cooper (OAK) (We should notice a trend here, and that is, WR1 target monsters with good QBs are likely to give you upside and less likely to give you a dud in case they fail to score. If Cooper doesn’t score 2 TD’s, but gives you 10 for 120, you can live with that. The Carr/Cooper connection is real and Atlanta just isn’t…look what TB just did.
TE- Coby Fleener (NO) (The Giants still struggle across the middle and deep in their secondary as Witten had no problem catching passes from Dak Prescott last week. Fleener can only go up from here after last week’s dud, and should get targets, and deep targets, in a game with the highest total on the slate from vigorous passing offenses. All it takes is for Fleener to burn the NY safeties once for a 45 yard gain or TD. Add in 8 receptions across the middle and you’ve got a Millionaire Maker winner right here. At $3,900 on DFK, i’m willing to go 90% in on Fleener. Though, do tread with some caution, if he just isn’t up for playing football this year, then Cooks and Snead will take the reins and you should look elsewhere at TE. Maybe Jesse James for (PIT) if you want a value option.
FLEX- Brandin Cooks (NO) It’s a tough call with Fitz or Cooks….I just get nervous with Brees on a grass field, and with Cooks not being able to make cuts as well not being on turf. But sure, the Giants can’t cover the middle of the field, and Cooks make for a great slot target guy this week if game flow remains fast paced and with lots of offense. Again, if the game is nip/tuck and your team needed to score and keep pace…wouldn’t you want Brees to throw or OBJ to catch passes? I would if I was coach.
DEF- NONE Avoid all teams here as the Over/Under is too high for all games so far and all offenses look solid. If you are playing 150 lineups though, why not try Arizona? They can do miraculous things at home sometimes and Patrick Peterson can score TDs. CIN maybe shuts down PIT? I can’t say a TD is likely though. Still a clear fade for all of these defenses so far.
Stay Tuned for TEN/DET….47.5 projected on the docket.