WGC-Bridgestone Invitational Picks & Projections

Let me start out by saying that I have never written a blog about fantasy golf, up until the MLB All-Star break, I rarely played fantasy golf with the exception of a major here or there. I’ve always been a fan of golf, but have never known enough about each of the players’ games to really predict which courses they would excel on. That’s when the All-Star break hit me and I had nothing better to do with my time other than join a bunch of PGA leagues and hope for the best.

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Up until a few weeks ago, anytime I would put together a golf team, I would rely on the wonderful words of wisdom from bloggers Gibbathy and HarryV. They clearly know a lot more about golf than I ever will and they post some great blogs every single week. If you play fantasy golf and don’t read their columns, I highly recommend it. Their picks are usually spot on, but as an everyday and almost every sport Grinder, I have a hard time not doing my own research and coming up with my own picks, so the last two weeks I have done just that and have actually had some success with it.

Of course, by making my first ever golf blog and saying that my picks have worked out fairly well, I am surely setting my picks up for failure. But nonetheless, I have to at least give it a shot. What I have done is pretty simple, here is how the projections works: I have taken all of the golfers that have at least a 200/1 or greater shot of winning this weeks tournament. Out of all of those golfers, I have calculated their average odds of winning the tournament based on odds posted on 7 different sites.

I started my projections with just the odds to win, but then quickly realized that I needed something else in there. So I decided to include each golfer’s percentage of cuts made which is one of the biggest factors in fantasy golf because if they make the cut, you get 4 rounds of scores, if they don’t, you are stuck with only 2 rounds. After deciding on these two factors as my basis for my projections, I had to weigh them in terms of importance. I gave the odds about 80% of the weight and the % of cuts made about 20%.

This then gave me a value for each golfer, one that took into account both their odds to win and their % of cuts made. That is shown below. Once I had the values set, I ranked the golfers from highest to lowest values. Then came the tricky part, how to project a score for each golfer based on their value. Keep in mind that these projections are based off of Draftstreet’s scoring and pricing.

Based on DS scoring, I decided to use a score of 30 as the highest projected score and 7 as the lowest score because 30 is around the average score for a first place finish and 7 seemed like a good low point. Once I had these numbers set, I gave the second, third, and fourth place golfers their appropriate score based on DS’s scoring system and then even distributed a lower point total all the way down the list.

Here is what I came up with:

Notorious PGA Projections

Player Salary % Cuts Made Odds to Win % Chance to Win Value Proj. $/Point
Boo Weekley $10,291.00 80.00% 150.00 0.67% 2.253 13.23 $777.81
Jim Furyk $15,580.00 75.00% 47.14 2.12% 3.579 19.46 $800.55
Jason Day $18,120.00 93.33% 33.29 3.00% 4.811 22.58 $802.59
Henrik Stenson $17,288.00 75.00% 37.00 2.70% 4.149 21.19 $815.77
Bubba Watson $17,413.00 81.25% 39.71 2.52% 4.093 20.85 $835.31
Angel Cabrera $13,995.00 81.25% 66.00 1.52% 3.110 16.69 $838.41
Miguel A Jimenez $10,459.00 90.00% 150.00 0.67% 2.453 12.45 $840.08
Dustin Johnson $19,383.00 62.50% 25.86 3.87% 5.040 22.92 $845.57
Paul Lawrie $10,321.00 80.00% 182.14 0.55% 2.138 12.19 $846.52
Brandt Snedeker $21,023.00 75.00% 21.57 4.64% 6.043 24.65 $852.73
Matt Kuchar $21,383.00 94.12% 23.00 4.35% 6.143 25.00 $855.32
Ian Poulter $16,060.00 72.73% 51.43 1.94% 3.360 18.77 $855.66
Billy Horschel $15,174.00 90.00% 67.71 1.48% 3.247 17.73 $855.80
Martin Kaymer $13,118.00 66.67% 74.57 1.34% 2.648 15.31 $856.95
Zach Johnson $15,001.00 72.22% 55.14 1.81% 3.222 17.38 $862.89
Sergio Garcia $18,589.00 80.00% 36.29 2.76% 4.301 21.54 $863.06
Hunter Mahan $20,116.00 75.00% 25.86 3.87% 5.290 23.27 $864.49
Lee Westwood $20,852.00 85.71% 27.00 3.70% 5.344 23.96 $870.23
Charl Schwartzel $19,109.00 84.62% 33.86 2.95% 4.587 21.88 $873.17
Justin Rose $21,342.00 72.73% 23.00 4.35% 5.715 24.31 $877.99
Adam Scott $22,901.00 90.00% 16.29 6.14% 7.818 26.00 $880.81
Rory McIlroy $20,816.00 72.73% 25.43 3.93% 5.308 23.62 $881.46
Steve Stricker $19,705.00 87.50% 32.86 3.04% 4.733 22.23 $886.38
Jason Dufner $17,686.00 75.00% 42.86 2.33% 3.787 19.81 $892.89
Keegan Bradley $18,377.00 73.68% 38.29 2.61% 4.033 20.50 $896.44
Harris English $12,919.00 80.95% 125.00 0.80% 2.403 14.27 $905.37
Rickie Fowler $16,484.00 76.47% 55.29 1.81% 3.302 18.08 $911.88
Ernie Els $16,807.00 69.23% 50.00 2.00% 3.345 18.42 $912.28
Ryan Moore $12,754.00 58.82% 81.43 1.23% 2.380 13.92 $916.03
Webb Simpson $15,654.00 72.22% 57.43 1.74% 3.151 17.04 $918.74
Luke Donald $18,839.00 72.73% 39.29 2.55% 3.949 20.15 $934.76
Bo Van Pelt $14,705.00 72.22% 78.86 1.27% 2.687 15.65 $939.39
Graeme McDowell $17,962.00 54.55% 42.86 2.33% 3.378 19.12 $939.66
Hideki Matsuyama $15,308.00 75.00% 70.00 1.43% 2.900 16.00 $956.75
Nick Watney $14,046.00 68.42% 92.86 1.08% 2.424 14.62 $961.04
Phil Mickelson $26,409.00 80.00% 13.43 7.45% 8.898 27.00 $978.11
Bill Haas $16,146.00 66.67% 55.29 1.81% 3.106 16.35 $987.76
Martin Laird $13,479.00 64.71% 101.43 0.99% 2.260 13.58 $992.79
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano $9,759.00 60.00% 167.86 0.60% 1.784 9.77 $998.95
John Merrick $11,543.00 61.11% 146.43 0.68% 1.891 11.15 $1,034.89
Russell Henley $12,372.00 68.42% 139.29 0.72% 2.072 11.85 $1,044.39
Peter Hanson $11,197.00 58.33% 137.86 0.73% 1.878 10.46 $1,070.30
Kevin Streelman $12,235.00 63.16% 157.14 0.64% 1.887 10.81 $1,132.06
Nicolas Colsaerts $14,394.00 46.67% 80.00 1.25% 2.158 12.54 $1,147.99
Richard Sterne $13,255.00 60.00% 121.43 0.82% 2.007 11.50 $1,152.61
Paul Casey $15,045.00 50.00% 80.86 1.24% 2.212 12.88 $1,167.67
Jamie Donaldson $9,858.00 50.00% 153.57 0.65% 1.638 8.04 $1,226.35
Scott Piercy $11,860.00 52.63% 146.43 0.68% 1.722 9.42 $1,258.61
Francesco Molinari $11,426.00 42.86% 118.57 0.84% 1.684 9.08 $1,258.80
Tiger Woods $37,928.00 90.00% 4.57 21.88% 23.238 30.00 $1,264.27
D A Points $9,962.00 45.45% 200.00 0.50% 1.399 7.69 $1,295.06
Branden Grace $13,733.00 50.00% 112.14 0.89% 1.874 10.12 $1,357.63
Thorbjorn Olesen $11,063.00 33.33% 150.00 0.67% 1.320 7.35 $1,505.96
Jonas Blixt $13,325.00 52.63% 157.14 0.64% 1.676 8.73 $1,526.21
Matteo Manassero $13,575.00 42.86% 125.00 0.80% 1.641 8.38 $1,619.04
Shane Lowery $13,087.00 28.57% 157.14 0.64% 1.195 7.00 $1,869.57

These projections are sorted by the very last column which is essentially the column that shows you the best value picks. That column basically says that each fantasy point is going to cost you that amount of salary.

Now on to the picks, based on these projections, here is my optimal lineup on Draftstreet:

  • Boo Weekley – $10,291
  • Jason Day – $18,120
  • Henrik Stenson – $17,288
  • Bubba Watson – $17,413
  • Jim Furyk – 15,580
  • Brandt Snedeker – $21,023

I would love to hear everyone’s thoughts on both the picks as well as the criteria that I used in the projections. I am still very new to fantasy golf and would love to perfect these as best as I can.

In any event, I hope these can help some Grinders out this week!

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

Comments

  • stlcardinals84

    Leading RG Analyst

    • 290

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2018 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    Day has been battling a sore wrist and had it wrapped at the Open. Tread carefully. Otherwise that looks very much like a playable team on DS this week.

  • jecarl2

    I like including the odds to win, a lot of experts do not even mention that aspect. The last two weeks the favorite and second betting choice favorite have won (Mickelson 18 to 1 & Sneds 12 to 1 (Mahan was also the second betting choice at 20 to 1 last week) Of course the odds are always inflated when Tiger is in the field.

  • RotoCole

    I can’t even begin to tell you how much I appreciate you doing this. Thanks

  • vinsane38

    Superb algo – my favorite takeaway here is how effin expensive Tiger Woods is. A lock to score well and not be a “sucka MC” (missed cut), but valuation VERY rich.

    AND Hunter Mahan withdrew

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