What did we learn last night? ROI edition - FD Monster v Squeeze

Before I jump into the little mini-look back that I did, I want to point out that the Rangers and Yankees scored 23 runs last night. Shin Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury combined for less than a single FanDuel point. Jerks.

Moving on.

A little about me (stay with me, it’s going somewhere. I promise)…

I got into Daily Fantasy Sports for football and football alone. I’m 32 years old, and have been playing fantasy football for as long as I can remember. I joined FanDuel in 2012 with a $100 deposit, won a GPP early, and never looked back. Shortly after I joined FanDuel, I came across Rotogrinders and began reading everything I could find on the site for football. It was awesome. Still is. After football season ended, I found myself still visiting RG.com and reading about fantasy basketball.

Now I’ve never played fantasy basketball in my life, but I played actual basketball for a long time so obviously the game interests me. Unfortunately, as a Cavs fan, the NBA was dead to me about 10 minutes after Jim Grey sat down with Lebron on July 8, 2010. Nonetheless, the articles drew me in, and I started casually playing daily fantasy basketball once or twice a week.

As the kids say on the internet these days… That escalated quickly.

Turns out daily fantasy basketball is freaking awesome, if you have the time to pay attention. I went from reading an article or two per week to tuning into GrindersLive every night to make sure I don’t miss any late scratches and to defend the under-appreciated genius of Larry Drew. Spoiler alert… I couldn’t defend him.

Basketball winded down, and baseball began. It only made sense to keep rolling along and making this DFS thing a year round addiction. And so I did. I decided to really watch my bankroll and allocate the right amount of money to the right games. I read Jonathan Bale’s book and became more active on twitter…. but as I continued down the path of grinding Daily Fantasy Sports, I realized something.

I stink at H2H, 50/50’s and double ups. Like… really bad.

I’ve read the GrinderU articles, watched CSURams88’s video, read the Daily Plays columns, and practiced the strategies of “10% of your bankroll in play on mostly 50/50’s and double ups per night”.

And I got crushed. Over and over. To the point where is was getting embarrassing.

I’m on a GroupMe chat with 6 buddies who are all incredible DFS players, and my performance in these games became a running joke on the thread. (On a side note, if you aren’t using GroupMe, you’re missing out.)

This baseball season my ROI for 50/50’s, double ups, and H2H’s is -26%. Negative. Twenty. Six. Percent. Here’s a little tip… anytime you see my name in a H2H matchup, SCOOP ME UP. Because I’m terrible at cash games.

So I stick to the GPP’s, where my ROI this baseball season is not only positive, but positive enough to keep me coming back every day.

So now on to the reason I sat down this morning to write. (See, I told you it was going somewhere.)

I am not a high stakes player by any stretch of the imagination, but when I calculated my ROI in baseball GPP’s this year to be 600%, I thought to myself, “Holy shit, if you risked more than a couple of bucks per night you might be onto something”.

But would I? I remember a forum post earlier this year about some donkey whining about the bigger bankroll players entering multiple entries in GPP’s. Let me be clear before I move on… I think multiple entries into GPP’s are awesome and I use them (to a much smaller scale) in the FanDuel squeeze (nearly) every night.

I was hoping to look back at the first half of the baseball season, and see how my multiple entries in the $2 FanDuel Squeeze would have fared if I entered those exact lineups in the $200 FanDuel Monster. (Thanks to sbk5065 for posting the links to the big tournaments in the forums.)

Unfortunately, the tourney links that sbk5065 posted are only active for about a week, so I only have data from 7-23 til today. I’ll share my findings from this week, but obviously I realize that one week’s worth of data is not sufficient so I will try my best to keep track and share a larger scale look in a month or so.

So here we go. What if I would have ponied up the big bucks to play the $200 Monster every night instead of the $2 Squeeze?

July 23
I had 3 entries into the Squeeze.
1 team cashed at 45.66 FanDuel points for a $6 cash. I had 2 other teams miss cashing.
If that were in the Monster, 45.66 points would have netted $250 cash. Other 2 teams still miss cashing.

July 24
I had 3 entries into the Squeeze.
Scores of 46, 43.25 and 41.75. 2 cashed for $16.
If those were in the Monster, all 3 would have cashed for $1900.

July 25
I had 3 entries into the Squeeze.
Scores of 34 and two dud teams. None cashed for $0.
If those were in the Monster, score of 34 would have cashed for $500.

July 28
I had 3 entries into the Squeeze.
Scores of 36.5 and two dud teams. None cashed for $0.
If those were in the Monster, score of 36.5 would have cashed for $500.

July 29
I had 5 entries into the Squeeze. (Feeling a little cocky, apparently)
Scores of 53.75 and 51.16 and 3 dud teams. 2 cashed for $14.
If those were in the Monster, 2 would have cashed for $1100.

ROI this week:
In the Squeeze- 17 entries. $34 invested. $36 cashed. ROI of 5.8%
If in the Monster- 17 entries. $3400 invested. $4250 cashed. ROI of 25%

What does this mean? I don’t really know. But as I gather more data over the next month or so I will be sure to share it here and we can figure it out together.

About the Author

Comments

  • Cameron

    RG Co-Founder

    • 2014 FanDuel NFL Survivor Champion

    • 2016 RG Season Long Champion: NFL

    Great blog! Keep ‘em coming.

  • lilbiz2006

    It means that the monster typically pays top 20%

  • Lucky26

    I see Jonathan Bale has many books. Which one would you recommend to reads for DFS Football & Baseball?

  • jockpostdt

    The Bales book that I read was Fantasy Football for Smart People; How to Cash in on the Future of the Game. Good read. Actually, I’m about half way through “How to think like a daily fantasy football winner” by CD Carter and I’d recommend that one as well.

  • sonicattack

    The Monster is awesome – if you can afford it. But it definitely makes you think. The Squeeze is basically a lottery ticket. I’d rather use $2 for a 100 man league or something similar.

  • donniccolo

    Great piece other than the lack of a plug for #DFSDOSE on twitter! Keep ‘em coming.

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