What Now?

This is my first attempt at a blog and while I intend to be back for NHL and provide insight and hopefully some winning picks, I want to let everyone in on a little something I realized a few days ago. Ready? I mean, are you really READY? Ok, here it is. Sometimes, check that, many times things that happen don’t make sense. I’m serious. Sometimes there are things that happen that just shouldn’t. We all pay up for the “top” pitcher in hopes that they “should” give us the win, especially on Fanduel. Now I know you shouldn’t believe me as I am a “no-name” and am by no means a top ranked grinder (maybe in NHL, but that’s a debate for another day). I want you to click this link and take this test. For real, just do it and play along.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/07/03/upshot/a-quick-puzzle-to-test-your-problem-solving.html

Did you do it?

Did you find out what so many of us should know, yet disagree with?

Sometimes the simplest answer is the correct answer. Many times we try to look so hard at why something happened that we can’t just accept it as an anomaly. I ran into this same scenario in the past NHL season. I kept thinking “well, this is why this must have happened. I have to take advantage of it the next time I see it.” Guess what happened? I lost. I lost a lot by my standards. It wasn’t until I realized that there are people out there that can help us figure out what is the norm and what is the exception. 3 things I learned that helped bring me back, is something I think we can all learn and use in any sport we play.

1) Trust Vegas.

Simple as that folks, just trust them. They are there because they are good. Not good in the idea that they are on a heater, but good in that they are the reason we try to out-think them. Don’t. They are right the majority of the time. When they say the high scoring team should be team A, treat them as though they are.

2) Stick to what works.

For each of us that is something different. Some of us are born to be GPP players, others born to be cash game players, and others are a little of both depending on the sport we are playing. Don’t ever try to do something you aren’t comfortable with or something you aren’t good at.

3) Trust Vegas!

I get it, you think you are smarter than everyone else. If not, why would you play? The problem is that there are many people who are smarter than you when it comes to sports and fantasy sports. While I always play one “smitr” (smartest man in the room) lineup, I typically spend most on the lineup that Vegas dictates.

I hope you all can use this in the future, and saw it as important after we have seen so many “top” pitching options crap the bed in recent days. Let me know what you think in the comments section. I can provide research from the economist as well that proves this point a little more if asked.

Cheers!

-kkrogs01

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