What Went Wrong: 7/6

In this blog I will take a look at my lineup to determine what errors were made, and hopefully lead the way toward improvements in the future. Everyday I will enter a $1 100 man contest on FD that will be used as the measuring stick for this blog.

July 6

Yesterday was a tough day to watch as I ignored some clear statistical advantages, and then let Mother Nature punch my lineup in the face by giving me a zero at the pitching slot. While I don’t want to make massive changes based on one day, there were certainly a few things to be learned as I plow ahead.

In an effort to shorten the portion that focuses on picks, and instead devote more time to the actual ‘What Went Wrong” section, I am going to simply list the players I selected and give a short statement explaining why each were selected.

Pitcher- Lance McCullers: The Blue Jays have a bottom of the league offense and McCullers has high strikeout potential
Catcher- Matt Wieters: Affordable salary, and facing a pitcher who is below average against lefties (hardest position for me to pick on this slate)
1st Base- Wil Myers: Power potential and facing a pitcher who struggles against righties
2nd Base- Daniel Murphy: Power potential, hits for average, facing a below average pitcher
3rd Base- Kyle Seager: Low cost, participating in a game with a high run total
Shortstop- Carlos Correa: Amazing matchup, participating in a game I think could turn into a route
Outfield- Jose Pirela: Hits for average in the #1 slot, facing a below average pitcher
Outfield- Michael Brantley: Hits for average against a below average pitcher
Outfield- Hunter Renfroe: Power potential that fills out a Padres stack against a below average pitcher

I didn’t put as much emphasis on stacking a team (although I ended up with a 3 man stack) for this slate. I personally don’t enjoy stacking as much, so I focused more heavily on individual matchups. The one thing I wish I had more was top tier power, but going with McCullers and Correa kind of ended that possibility. I suppose you can’t cover all of the bases. If there is one player I wish I could have fit in my lineup it is George Springer, he was in an early version of the lineup but I thought it had too many holes. We’ll see what happens.

Results/Reflection

Ugh, what I would give to get the pitching correct. It’s such a critical part, yet I am currently 0 for 2 in terms of making a good choice. McCullers was bad from the start by racking up a high pitch count early on and not yielding the high strikeout numbers I had hoped for.

The bats weren’t really any better. Both Tomlin and Liriano pretty much shut down a good chunk of my bats and once again it was an early night.

When looking at what went wrong my focus is on the bats. I think McCullers was a good play that simply busted out in this one. It happens. My bats are a different story. I have to stop trying to be too clever with my picks. Tomlin was a -190 favorite, so stacking against him was more than likely a bad idea from the start. Last night Cleveland was the stack to roll with, and many in my contest did. I should have recognized that they were facing a pitcher who was still very raw in terms of MLB experience, and didn’t have a history of keeping the ball in the park. In fact, when looking at the better lineups from last night it seems like players were targeting relatively inexperienced pitchers.

Overall, it was just a bum night. My pitcher was a mess, and my batters were as well. I have to keep in mind though that MLB is a game based on massive variance and one or two bad nights don’t necessarily mean everything about the night was a bad idea. I’ve got 3 days until the All-Star Break, so I’m hoping I can begin putting something together so I can head into a few days off feeling good about my progress, instead of continuing to look like one of the worst players out there.

Onto day 3.

Results: -$2

Best of luck everyone!

About the Author

  • rickysabogal

    First time reading the column, really enjoyed it. Very easy to relate to. Good luck on day 3!

  • mattyice522

    First base is tough because it is stacked while catcher you basically have to roll the dice

  • Mhesters

    I don’t think McCullers was a bad choice (assuming pitch Fx is correct) he had a brutal rookie umpire that was not giving either the top or the bottom of the strike zone. I don’t always know if pitch fx is correct but if it was, those pitch counts were on the umpire who has no business anywhere near a major league plate.

  • tgowen

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thanks for the feedback everyone. As bad as it seems since I’ve been playing for 4+ years I’ve never really spent time reflecting on my selections until now. The challenge I’m finding is recognizing what was a “bad day” and what was a “bad pick.” Hopefully I can start to consistently turn it around, I’ll just have to ride the tough times until then.

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