What Went Wrong: 7/7

In this blog I will take a look at my lineup to determine what errors were made, and hopefully lead the way toward improvements in the future. Everyday I will enter a $1 100 man contest on FD that will be used as the measuring stick for this blog.

NOTE: For this contest I participated in a “Late Night” slate of 5 games. This allowed me to not do so much of my research when my kids were up.

July 7

Hopefully today is the day things start turning around. I’m not expecting to cash every night, but so far out of the 100 lineups in each contest, I haven’t finished in the top 80.

For my pitcher I went with Greinke. I’m very interested to see what his ownership level is. There is a potential for some high scoring players tonight with sub-par pitchers in bad matchups. However, to benefit from those (I’m looking at you Coors) you have to pay up. Greinke provides high strikeout potential along with being a huge favorite. I’m playing it safe at this position until I prove that I can do otherwise.

As far as bats are concerned, I am picking on Adleman and Hammel. I think Adleman could get knocked around tonight and the Diamondbacks could rack up north of 10 hits, and I’d like to be the beneficiary of them. They also are a fairly inexpensive team to load up on which was necessary considering I went with Greinke. As far as Hammel, I’m going to go ahead and predict the Dodgers hit 3+ HR’s tonight. With that prediction set, I’m loading up on players that have HR potential. My lineup rounded out with Dee Gordon. Matt Moore has been awful against left handed bats so I’m hoping Gordon can get on a couple of times and maybe swipe a base.

NOTE: I type this section prior to games starting to make the rest of the blog easier to complete. Anything typed in it could easily turn out to be absurd, and I don’t have the energy or desire to change it in the event I look like a fool.

Results/Reflection


38th Place: 141.8
Min Cash: 170.2
1st Place: 197.4

Oh, Coors…

Well, starting with the positive, I was able to finally get the pitcher correct. Hopefully, this is a trend that will continue.

The bats once again failed me though. While I was able to have 3 players score north of 20pts, I was wrong on both predictions for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. While 141 isn’t a terrible score, it also isn’t a score that is going to have me cashing. The reality is, I completely busted on 4 slots with my batters. That was the difference.

Where I went wrong was clearly not playing anyone from Colorado. I personally hate Coors games because the lead to inflated prices and are generally way too heavily owned. However, it was a great matchup and proved to be an amazing play. Nolan Arenado alone outscored my two highest scoring bats and he was 22% owned. When only 12% of the lineups cash, that’s going to be tough to overcome.

I’m still not sure how important it is to stack in MLB. Last night, a majority of the cashing lineups stacked at least one team. However, only 1 of the 12 cashing lineups didn’t have Arenando. So I’m left with a few questions:

1. Does stacking increase your chance of landing on a massive difference maker?
2. Is research the key to finding the difference maker?
3. Should stacking be routinely used simply because it gives you a numbers advantage in the event of a blowout?

I think #3 highlights the obvious advantage of stacking. I just don’t know if it is so advantageous that it should be done almost daily. Regardless of the strategy I choose, I have to stop ending the night with so many dead spots. I’ll never expect to win (let alone cash) with half of my batters scoring 6pts or less.

Overall, this was a positive night. Had the Coors game not been a scoring extravaganza this lineup might have been good enough to min cash. I’m not sure how possible it will be, but I think playing in slates of 4-6 games is ideal for me as it minimizes the amount of information I need to digest. I’ve got 2 days before MLB takes a break, it sure would be nice to cash in one of them.

Profit: -$3

Best of luck everyone!

About the Author

  • tjventre

    I’ve enjoyed these so far. Nice job with the Greinke pick. I just wanted to say I’ve had success with shorter slates, like the five-gamer you played last night. As you mentioned, there is less research involved, but there are also fewer paths to a high-scoring lineup (fewer games = fewer runs, fewer homers, etc.). If you build a solid lineup, you’re in good shape because there are only so many players to go around. Someone would have to have a very similar lineup to yours if they wanted to beat you. (This is where finding those hidden minimum-salary guys comes in, but that’s for another post.) Compare this to a 15-game slate, where there are literally dozens of unique combinations of players that could lead to the big total you need. You could build a great lineup that performs well, but so could 12 other people who didn’t even roster any of the same guys you did. That doesn’t happen on a five-game slate. In other words, a big part of winning at DFS is contest selection, so don’t be afraid to keep playing those short slates.

  • tjventre

    Are you going to continue posting?

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