Why Am I Not A Shark? - S1E12: Sticking To The Plan

By Mark Kieffer (kieff5280), Last Updated 2 months ago

If you have been reading my stuff, you know that I had a pretty profitable couple of days on Sunday and Monday, significantly growing my bankroll. The big question I had to myself on Tuesday was “how should I attack the slate?”.

On one hand, I had been hot the past couple of days and with my wins perhaps playing a high dollar game or playing more volume could lead to into winning even more. On the other hand, I had a great couple of days, and the skeptic in me isn’t sure that I am hot, perhaps just lucky and I could easy lose my money.

I know of a lot of people in the community get a big win, try to keep it going, play in an even bigger tournament only to bust out. I actually think that separates the “sharks” from the regular guys. I mean honestly, I think I am as good as the Top 10-15% of the field. I don’t have the winnings to prove that, I don’t have the live finals, etc., to prove that, I am a nobody…. But in my head, I really do feel like if I played 1 on 1 against the Top of the Field, I would be about .500 with them. I think I can hang.

But you know what? Taking that $1800 I won, throwing it into a $1500 buy-in tournament or playing a few $300 tournaments would have lead to be doing busto. I would have been risking over half of my bankroll, which is stupid. I am trying to NEVER have to deposit again and get to a level where perhaps I can earn a little side income for fun. Going for broke and chasing the big payouts against the top of the field would have been dumb.

And guess what? My lineups yesterday sucked. I had a bunch of Orioles bats (sucked), Darvish (stunk), Fulmer (was just OK), faded Scherzer in my main lineups. Not a great night for that plan. I threw in $72 or approximately 2-3% of my bankroll. I played a few lineups in DK and 2 lineups on FD. I lost $60 basically. I had a lineup with Indians bats and a lineup with Diamondbacks bats with OK enough pitching and fading Orioles that cashed. Now my bankroll is down 2.3%, and still up 68% from where I started the season. I live to fight another day and I live to try to grow on top of my profits rather than playing catch-up.

You ever run hot? Do you do anything different or do you stick with your plan? I guarantee how we manage our bankrolls is what separates us from the sharks.

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Comments

  • mopeezymuzik

    GREAT POINT! I won 3500 in NBA and chased the larger buy-ins and BUSTO!! Very expensive mistake! Discipline to do what you suggest is the key!!

  • theking1988

    Great stuff, Mark.. I always feel the same way, when I win big… Do I go for gold again, or do I stick to my plan? I have found sticking to my plan is always the better option

    On another note, I didn’t place again for the third day in a row yesterday… I went w/ a mini stack in tournaments w/ TB, and Red Sox bats… Cash games, I had exposure to the O’s/Reds game, David Peralta, Brett Gardner, and Brian McCann at catcher… Curious to get your thoughts on this, and if I went wrong somewhere… The mistake last night was not having Nats bats in my lineup, which, I also ask, what did those grinders see that I missed?

    Thanks Mark!

  • kieff5280

    @theking1988 said...

    Great stuff, Mark.. I always feel the same way, when I win big… Do I go for gold again, or do I stick to my plan? I have found sticking to my plan is always the better option

    On another note, I didn’t place again for the third day in a row yesterday… I went w/ a mini stack in tournaments w/ TB, and Red Sox bats… Cash games, I had exposure to the O’s/Reds game, David Peralta, Brett Gardner, and Brian McCann at catcher… Curious to get your thoughts on this, and if I went wrong somewhere… The mistake last night was not having Nats bats in my lineup, which, I also ask, what did those grinders see that I missed?

    Thanks Mark!

    I like the mini-stack of TB, I like attacking Zimmerman. Red Sox move I hate; people are trying to pick on Liriano… Is he prone to blow-ups? Yeah…. But he can also throw a no hitter and strike out 14 batters. I don’t like picking on guys that have upside like that… O’s/Reds was disappointing. Nothing wrong with that, I had Votto in a lineup, just bad luck. O’s struggle against lefties and I had Garrett in one DK lineup with Kershaw to get bats, but I didnt expect him to do as well as he did.

    With the Nats, I included Harper and Murphy in my DK lineups, I couldn’t fit him on Fanduel… With Teheran, he struggles against lefties. Allows a 0.344 WOBA against lefties vs a 0.255 WOBA against righties, his K% is 16.5% against lefties vs. 25% against righties. Lefties slug 0.455 vs. righties 0.319

    Bottom line, there is a lot of evidence that Teheran can give up some power to lefties… So Harper and Murphy are in play. I could see why people would play Eaton, although I did not, and I think a lot of people played Difo because of price to fit in a Kershaw, and he’s a switch hitter going left against Teheran as well.

  • theking1988

    Wow, ok, I see the reason why now… I overlooked that big time; it’s a learning experience for me and can use that moving forward… Let me ask this next question, with those numbers against Teheran v. lefties, and the O’s struggles against lefties… are those numbers/trends something that I should use or incorporate in my research and really use them to my advantage for the plays every day?

  • theking1988

    Wow, ok, I see the reason why now… I overlooked that big time; it’s a learning experience for me and can use that moving forward… Let me ask this next question, with those numbers against Teheran v. lefties, and the O’s struggles against lefties… are those numbers/trends something that I should use or incorporate in my research and really use them to my advantage for the plays every day?

  • kieff5280

    Yeah I think so. When you play this for a while, these are things you pick up and just keep in mind….But this game is about picking guys in good spots…. Harper is one of the best in the game; he literally is rosterable every single day. Right now, he has been locked in at the plate, and happened to face a pitcher who struggles against lefties, in warm weather, in a hitters ballpark catered to lefties. He could have gone 0-4 and put up a 0, but all those factors make it work taking the chance on.

    Same thing with the Orioles; if the lefty pitcher going against them is horrible, I am not going to worry about it. If the lefty pitcher is decent or one they are unfamiliar with, I consider rostering… But attacking the Orioles is scary because 1-8 they can all go yard. I only did it on DK because I was playing Kershaw and rostering Garrett allowed me to spend up on Harper and Murphy.

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