Why Am I Not A Shark? - S1E13: What Happened Last Night?
Last night was weird.
And I lost money.
Kershaw allowed 2 runs and went 7 innings which is good, but on DK Amir Garrett scored 2 less points and costed like 7 thousand less dollars. We don’t pay that $12-$13k for that! On Fanduel, Jason Vargas (that’s right Jason Vargas), the same guy that was selling used cars this offseason in Florida (not true) Jason Vargas, outscored Kershaw by 3 points??? (BTW Vargas is 3-0 with a 0.44 ERA and 0.77 WHIP right now, WHAATTT???!). Ubaldo, yes Ubaldo, went in a time machine back to 2010 and straight up SHUT DOWN the Reds. It just ain’t right.
All of that lead to some interesting tournament lineups that resulted in people winning them who rostered freaking Jason Vargas.
On Fanduel I rostered: Kershaw and tried to attack Zimmerman with lefty bats (Dickerson, Miller, Lomo) along with attacking Chacin with lefty bats (Peralta, Lamb, Herrmann), and threw in Reddick as a punt play (greatest punt play ever!). Bats weren’t coming through on my part, but bats for those who faded Kershaw were not coming through as the Red Sox, Reds, and Orioles were all held in check. At 8pm my time (mountain), when I saw about 30% ownership on Kershaw, and seeing I had the D-backs bats going late thought I would min cash. But I was about 10 FD points away from doing that… My goal is to NEVER min-cash but when you know you are having a suboptimal night, min cashing feels like a win.
On DK, my fortune was different with the two lineups I set. One lineup (Kershaw and Garrett) allowed for me to pay up for Harper and Murphy along with adding some of those Rays lefty bats against a terrible Jordan Zimmerman. I went 2.6x with that lineup. My other lineup (Kershaw and Ross) netted me 2.5x as I paid up for Harper, Votto, Rays bats. Not the greatest night on the bat side.
Overall, I went down $38 and my bankroll is still 65% higher than beginning of year as I played a higher dollar tournament on Fanduel. In general, I like the $25 and up structure and prizes better on Fanduel, but I like Draftkings’ lower dollar ($3-$20) games better. This occasionally gets me to play more of my action on Fanduel like it did last night.
I am looking forward to tonights’ slate! This is DAILY Fantasy, so we have to move onto TODAY.
On a shorter slate (5-7 games), I think ownership is more important than a night like last night (15 games!). Last night there were 30 starting pitchers to choose from along with studs like Kershaw and Madbum, ownership doesn’t matter as much as just making a great lineup. On a night like tonight, ownership is a bigger deal.
Looking at the slate, I think the Nationals stack will be popular: they put up 14 runs last night and are in a better spot on paper than last night. Syndergaard and Strasburg are going to be popular and Nola and Duffy will probably be popular GPP options tonight too. So what am I going to do before setting lineups? I am going to play around!
Will you roster Thor?
Or is Stras more of your guy tonight?
If I put in Syndergaard and a full Nationals stack, I can fit in Duffy or Corbin pretty easily as an SP and build a lineup with some value at SS and OF. I can do the same with Strasburg as well since he is cheaper than Syndergaard. That tells me that people will likely punt two of C, SS, and OF3 and are able to pay for a premium bat at the other spot.
I imagine some people will go back to the Baltimore well as they face Scott Feldman. You can fit a Syndergaard or Strasburg with a full Orioles stack, punt at C, 2B, and SS, and still fit in a Danny Duffy in. If they wanted to punt SP2 and play a Corbin, they could pay up for a David Murphy and a middle tier C or SS.
Why does this matter? Well it matters to me because given that, I can look to see if there are SP combos or other lineup combinations that are equally as good as the lineups I was playing with above to be different. People get contrarian wrong; sure if you want to throw in an Atlanta stack or a Phillies stack and hope to get lucky go ahead, but in the long run that’s throwing money away. I am talking about guys in good spots that will be overlooked because they can’t fit into the popular lineups. For example, could I play a Paxton and Nola lineup and get better bats to make up for not having Strasburg or Syndergaard? I will decide that in the next 3-4 hours.
On Fanduel, I go through the same exercise:
Syndergaard + Nationals 1-4: Hard because it forces one to punt 1B.
Syndergaard + Nationals 2-5: Possible; easier to punt at OF and Zimmerman is underpriced
Strasburg + Nationals 1-4: Possible if savings is applied to 1B for a Moss or Valencia.
Strasburg + Nationals 2-5: Can get a pretty good midtier OF3 bat
With the Orioles, it is a similar story in that it’s easier to fit in Strasburg with Orioles 1-4 and still get 1 decent bat.
So in short, I would expet to see more Strasburg than Syndergaard because of pricing at bats. Of course of people go down to a Duffy or Paxton, they can get all kinds of bats, so we will see that as well especially if people construct multiple lineups.
Bottom line, if I know where people might go with pitching and where they will hunt for value, it can help me move slightly away from that without going too crazy. If I can’t find people in as good of spots, then I go with the chalk and hope no punt plays blow up tonight. What I really see as being different is either stacking a team outside of Washington and Baltimore, or paying down with pitching and paying up in spots where most people are going to punt… But that only makes sense if you think a Paxton + Premium bat > Strasburg + Punt Play. But that’s what makes the game fun!
I’m ready to set some lineups and see if I can rake some cash tonight!