Yahoo Bargain Basement Value 12/12/2016
Greetings and salutations! I must admit, the past few days I’ve had a bit of a rough run hitting on most my value picks while many studs have fallen completely flat! While studs and scrubs is a strategy which can work well, another roster building I like to employ is balanced plus scrub where the savings of a min value player are spread among the rest of your roster construction fairly evenly. With Harden facing Brooklyn, a vast majority are going to try to fit him and one of the Clippers into a stars and scrubs lineup and the balanced plus scrub is a solid strategy to differentiate especially if you’re a player who enters multiple lineups and hedges the chalk.
On Yahoo, I want my near min value players to return at least 2X their salary (ex a $10 needs to return 20) and hopefully have a 2.5X+ upside. As such, I try to target players with a FPPM as close to 1 as I can get who will benefit from a minutes boost due to an injury to another player or 6th man type players who generally get overlooked as people flock to starters. Below is a look at some value targets I’ve isolated to my budget player pool, though keep in mind value plays can change as news breaks throughout the day and it’s important to stay on top of potential lineup changes.
Sam Dekker $10 – Dekker was a great find for the Rockets and has averaged a healthy 21.4 MPG and 17.84 YFPPG over the last 5 and has the benefit of facing the Nets tonight who allow top FPPG at every position. And that’s not all! Brooklyn offers the 4th highest opponent 3P% while Houston has the highest 3PA in the league, Dekker has averaged 2.4 3PA over the last 5. This game not only has the highest OP/U of the night but also the largest spread so there is an opportunity for Dekker to get some extra run in a blowout.
Patrick Patterson $12 – Patterson has been playing 6th man minutes all season averaging 30 MPG over the last 3 and has returned less than 1X his $12 salary only 3 times all season. With his very healthy average of 20.4 YFPPG, he’s about as safe a value play as you can find and a default option I consider every night he plays.
Cory Joseph $10 – Joseph is coming off a horrible game playing 24 minutes and only returning 7.7 YFP. Ouch! However, the 10 games before that he’s averaged 21.6 MPG and and 21.54 YFPPG. If you consider last game more of an outlyer, Joseph should be in line to return 2X on his min salary. The match-up isn’t very favorable but Joseph should see most minutes against the 2nd unit.
Marco Belinelli $10 – Belinelli looks like he’s completely recovered from his hamstring injury averaging 26.2 MPG and 19 YFPPG over the last 5. The last 2 games have been a bit rough for him, but I expect a bounce back as he’s in good spot tonight facing the Pacers who allow the 3rd most 3 pointers made to shooting guards this season.
Rodney Stuckey $10 – Speaking of the Pacers, Monta Ellis has been rules out. We’ve seen the pacers elevate both C.J. Miles and Glen Robinson into the starting lineup so far this season and rostering a budget bench player when they are given a starting slot is a great strategy to follow. However, sometimes being a little sneaky can give you the edge. Stuckey is coming off a poor performance returning only 9.6 YFP on 27 minutes. Yuck. However, the 5 previous games he’s averaged 23.6 MPG and 19.1 YFPPG. He should see a minutes bump with Ellis out and gets to face the “lock (uh…more like lay) down” defense of Belinelli.
Good luck tonight, and remember to watch for any news opening up additional value plays.