Yahoo Bargain Basement Value 12/9/2016
With the price of Russell Westbrook ever rising, value picks are becoming more important every night he plays. That goes double if you want to squeeze another stud in with him. Tonight with the Thunder facing the Rockets with the highest O/U posted as of this writing and Westbrook with the opportunity to tireMichael Jordan’s consecutive triple double record, I really want some exposure to Westbrook. Since he will cost nearly a third of the Yahoo $200 cap, one to two value plays will be necessary to cash.
On Yahoo, I want my near min value players to return at least 2X their salary (ex a $10 needs to return 20) and hopefully have a 2.5X+ upside. As such, I try to target players with a FPPM as close to 1 as I can get who will benefit from a minutes boost due to an injury to another player or 6th man type players who generally get overlooked as people flock to starters. On a large slate like tonight, there are a wide range of players to choose from. Below is a look at some value targets I’ve isolated to my budget player pool, though keep in mind value plays can change as news breaks throughout the day and it’s important to stay on top of potential lineup changes.
Wayne Ellington $12 – In the 6 games he’s played for Miami he’s averaged 23.9 YFP and 34 MPG which converts to a whoping 1.9X and .7 FPPM. One note of caution, folks will be looking at DVP numbers for SG to project Ellington’s production but he’ll be playing a fair share of SF minutes matched up against James. On the flip side, his minutes are blow out proof with all the Miami injuries. Until Miami gets healthier, Ellington is a default value option.
Norman Powell $10 – Carroll is out tonight for rest and I expect Powell to start. In his 4 starts this season, he’s averaged 14.5 PPG (with 2.5 3P made), 3.75 REB, 2 AST, and .5 STL. Boston’s DVP is slightly skewed due to Crowder’s extended absence and with him back, Powell’s matchup isn’t quite as good as it looks. But for the min salary he’s definitely worth a look.
Patrick Patterson $12 – Patterson also stands to benefit with Carroll out and is averaging 20.3 YFPPG. That 1.7X makes him another default value option I look at every night he plays. the matchup is also solid as Boston PF is a plus position to attack giving up the 4th highest FPPG to PF and offer up a +7% boost over league average PF production at home.
Marco Belinelli $10 – Belinelli was a go to value play for a while constantly delivering 1.5-2X on a min salary. After going slightly cold coming off a mild hamstring injury, he’s back at it with 2 games of 2.5X returns. Matchup isn’t great as the Magic are among league best in terms of defending SG as well as opponent 3P%. However, he should see a slight boost facing the Magic 2nd unit.
Thabo Sefolosha $10 – In his last 2 starts for ATL, Sefolosha is returning close to 2.5X and 29+ MPG and his production is not purely scoring dependent. That’s exactly the type of trend I look for when targeting value plays which gets a little extra boost with Bazemore being out.
Dwight Powell $11 – Powell was the biggest beneficiary of Bogut being out last game and I expect that to continue tonight he should see close to 30 minutes. Indiana ranks 7th DVP for PFs and 3rd vs C’s plus they give up +9.7% to PF and +2.3% to C compared to league avg FP away.
Good luck tonight, and remember to watch for any news opening up additional value plays.