MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 6/23: Astros at Yankees

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Thursday, June 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


HOU vs. NYY


MLB DFS Analysis: Framber Valdez (LHP | 107)

9100 DK ( 18.20% of cap) / 10200 FD ( 29.14% of cap) / 44 Y ( 29.14% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 14.63 Exit Velocity 90.10
PlateIQ FD Proj. 29.20 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 16.49 Barrel % 4.80%
DK Pts$ 1.61 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 2.86 Statcast Hard% 40.40%
Y Pts$ 3.75 Hard% Percentile NA

See More Stats Made Simple for HOU vs. NYY : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 35.00 Games 35.00
Expected L 2.00 Expected R 7.00
xFIP L 3.75 xFIP R 3.39
K/9 L 9.84 K/9 R 7.74
BB/9 L 5.06 BB/9 R 3.33
GB/FB L 4.33 GB/FB R 5.03
HR/9 L 0.84 HR/9 R 0.64
Hard% L 26.20% Hard% R 30.30%

See More Stats Made Simple for HOU vs. NYY : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Framber Valdez is O.K. His 3.61 SIERA is the best on the slate since 2021, other than the 3.55 of Joe Musgrove. But these are the Yankees and Valdez has serious command issues without the strikeout stuff to neutralize it. The argument for him is that his power prevention is excellent. The argument against him is that we’re playing a lot of contact in Yankee Stadium against a Yankees lineups that crushes on contact.

Quick Breakdown: If ownership is favorable, we should do it; but early returns say that ownership will be a bit high, so I’m off.

MLB DFS Analysis: Jameson Taillon (RHP | -127)

7900 DK ( 15.80% of cap) / 9300 FD ( 26.57% of cap) / 44 Y ( 26.57% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 12.16 Exit Velocity 88.70
PlateIQ FD Proj. 23.67 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 14.11 Barrel % 7.20%
DK Pts$ 1.54 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 2.55 Statcast Hard% 38.00%
Y Pts$ 3.21 Hard% Percentile NA

See More Stats Made Simple for HOU vs. NYY : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 42.00 Games 35.00
Expected L 3.00 Expected R 6.00
xFIP L 4.72 xFIP R 4.02
K/9 L 8.80 K/9 R 7.90
BB/9 L 3.54 BB/9 R 1.26
GB/FB L 0.63 GB/FB R 0.99
HR/9 L 1.52 HR/9 R 1.05
Hard% L 29.60% Hard% R 29.20%

See More Stats Made Simple for HOU vs. NYY : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Don’t play mediocre pitching against the Astros. They don’t have the strikeouts in their lineup to give us a boost.

Quick Breakdown: Without the baked-in Ks, I’m not sure what we’re looking for here.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: HOU Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Jose Altuve 5300 3400 8.81 / 11.34 0.234 / 0.212 0.342 / 0.338 6.90%
Michael Brantley 4100 3000 8.05 / 10.34 0.113 / 0.141 0.327 / 0.364 6.00%
Alex Bregman 4300 3200 7.96 / 10.39 0.161 / 0.185 0.32 / 0.343 6.60%
Yordan Alvarez 5500 4100 10.11 / 13.21 0.253 / 0.339 0.382 / 0.44 16.50%
Kyle Tucker 4900 3600 8.74 / 11.39 0.263 / 0.232 0.364 / 0.357 11.40%
Yulieski Gurriel 3200 2500 6.14 / 7.81 0.172 / 0.137 0.313 / 0.279 3.10%
Mauricio Dubon 2600 2000 6.18 / 7.75 0.164 / 0.132 0.309 / 0.284 4.50%
Jose Siri 2100 2100 6.21 / 7.84 0.159 / 0.164 0.261 / 0.265 9.90%
Martin Maldonado 2800 2200 4.85 / 6.24 0.157 / 0.134 0.269 / 0.246 6.90%

Break down every HOU vs. NYY hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Three-game slate, so we’re not diving deep into lineups. Just play everyone here in a home run ballpark. Taillon is fine, but not great. The fear is the Yankee bullpen shutting the door on the Astros, but Taillon will get some run. His 1.24 HR/9 isn’t high, but it’s the second-worst on the slate since 2021. Same for his 7.4% barrel rate.

Optimal Plays – Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker

Secondary Plays – Everyone else

Stackability – GREEN


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: NYY Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
DJ LeMahieu 4700 3200 7.6 / 9.75 0.129 / 0.123 0.331 / 0.328 4.40%
Aaron Judge 5900 4100 9.5 / 12.49 0.316 / 0.347 0.389 / 0.414 20.20%
Anthony Rizzo 5600 4000 8.18 / 10.67 0.242 / 0.258 0.349 / 0.365 9.00%
Giancarlo Stanton 5200 3800 8.52 / 11.18 0.27 / 0.288 0.363 / 0.38 17.90%
Josh Donaldson 4000 2900 7.19 / 9.58 0.252 / 0.198 0.341 / 0.31 15.40%
Gleyber Torres 4300 3700 6.88 / 8.85 0.262 / 0.184 0.356 / 0.295 9.00%
Aaron Hicks 2900 2800 6.18 / 8.08 0.143 / 0.107 0.301 / 0.286 5.10%
Kyle Higashioka 2700 2500 5.64 / 7.24 0.225 / 0.191 0.291 / 0.273 14.10%
Joey Gallo 3000 3000 6.45 / 8.63 0.24 / 0.267 0.316 / 0.334 18.60%

Break down every HOU vs. NYY hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Not the best stack on the slate, but the Yankees can get there against anyone with command issues. They don’t strike out as much as they used to and it’s forcing pitchers to throw strikes. Which isn’t working out so well for pitchers. This is the fourth-best stack on the slate and the Astros bullpen is good, but it’s the Yankees. You know the potential here.

Optimal Plays – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Everyone else

Stackability – GREEN

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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