MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 6/23: Astros at Yankees
The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Thursday, June 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Stackability Rating System:
BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
HOU vs. NYY
MLB DFS Analysis: Framber Valdez (LHP | 107)
9100 DK ( 18.20% of cap) / 10200 FD ( 29.14% of cap) / 44 Y ( 29.14% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
| Projections | Proj. | Statcast Metrics | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PlateIQ DK Proj. | 14.63 | Exit Velocity | 90.10 |
| PlateIQ FD Proj. | 29.20 | EV Percentile | NA |
| PlateIQ Y Proj. | 16.49 | Barrel % | 4.80% |
| DK Pts$ | 1.61 | Barrel Percentile | NA |
| FD Pts$ | 2.86 | Statcast Hard% | 40.40% |
| Y Pts$ | 3.75 | Hard% Percentile | NA |
See More Stats Made Simple for HOU vs. NYY : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
| Key Stats vs. L | Proj. | Key Stats vs. R | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 35.00 | Games | 35.00 |
| Expected L | 2.00 | Expected R | 7.00 |
| xFIP L | 3.75 | xFIP R | 3.39 |
| K/9 L | 9.84 | K/9 R | 7.74 |
| BB/9 L | 5.06 | BB/9 R | 3.33 |
| GB/FB L | 4.33 | GB/FB R | 5.03 |
| HR/9 L | 0.84 | HR/9 R | 0.64 |
| Hard% L | 26.20% | Hard% R | 30.30% |
See More Stats Made Simple for HOU vs. NYY : Try PlateIQ Premium!
Framber Valdez is O.K. His 3.61 SIERA is the best on the slate since 2021, other than the 3.55 of Joe Musgrove. But these are the Yankees and Valdez has serious command issues without the strikeout stuff to neutralize it. The argument for him is that his power prevention is excellent. The argument against him is that we’re playing a lot of contact in Yankee Stadium against a Yankees lineups that crushes on contact.
Quick Breakdown: If ownership is favorable, we should do it; but early returns say that ownership will be a bit high, so I’m off.
MLB DFS Analysis: Jameson Taillon (RHP | -127)
7900 DK ( 15.80% of cap) / 9300 FD ( 26.57% of cap) / 44 Y ( 26.57% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
| PlateIQ Category | Proj. | Statcast Metrics | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PlateIQ DK Proj. | 12.16 | Exit Velocity | 88.70 |
| PlateIQ FD Proj. | 23.67 | EV Percentile | NA |
| PlateIQ Y Proj. | 14.11 | Barrel % | 7.20% |
| DK Pts$ | 1.54 | Barrel Percentile | NA |
| FD Pts$ | 2.55 | Statcast Hard% | 38.00% |
| Y Pts$ | 3.21 | Hard% Percentile | NA |
See More Stats Made Simple for HOU vs. NYY : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
| Key Stats vs. L | Proj. | Key Stats vs. R | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 42.00 | Games | 35.00 |
| Expected L | 3.00 | Expected R | 6.00 |
| xFIP L | 4.72 | xFIP R | 4.02 |
| K/9 L | 8.80 | K/9 R | 7.90 |
| BB/9 L | 3.54 | BB/9 R | 1.26 |
| GB/FB L | 0.63 | GB/FB R | 0.99 |
| HR/9 L | 1.52 | HR/9 R | 1.05 |
| Hard% L | 29.60% | Hard% R | 29.20% |
See More Stats Made Simple for HOU vs. NYY : Try PlateIQ Premium!
Don’t play mediocre pitching against the Astros. They don’t have the strikeouts in their lineup to give us a boost.
Quick Breakdown: Without the baked-in Ks, I’m not sure what we’re looking for here.
MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: HOU Batting
| Player | DK Salary | FD Salary | DK/FD Proj | Baseline ISO (L/R) | Baseline wOBA | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve | 5300 | 3400 | 8.81 / 11.34 | 0.234 / 0.212 | 0.342 / 0.338 | 6.90% |
| Michael Brantley | 4100 | 3000 | 8.05 / 10.34 | 0.113 / 0.141 | 0.327 / 0.364 | 6.00% |
| Alex Bregman | 4300 | 3200 | 7.96 / 10.39 | 0.161 / 0.185 | 0.32 / 0.343 | 6.60% |
| Yordan Alvarez | 5500 | 4100 | 10.11 / 13.21 | 0.253 / 0.339 | 0.382 / 0.44 | 16.50% |
| Kyle Tucker | 4900 | 3600 | 8.74 / 11.39 | 0.263 / 0.232 | 0.364 / 0.357 | 11.40% |
| Yulieski Gurriel | 3200 | 2500 | 6.14 / 7.81 | 0.172 / 0.137 | 0.313 / 0.279 | 3.10% |
| Mauricio Dubon | 2600 | 2000 | 6.18 / 7.75 | 0.164 / 0.132 | 0.309 / 0.284 | 4.50% |
| Jose Siri | 2100 | 2100 | 6.21 / 7.84 | 0.159 / 0.164 | 0.261 / 0.265 | 9.90% |
| Martin Maldonado | 2800 | 2200 | 4.85 / 6.24 | 0.157 / 0.134 | 0.269 / 0.246 | 6.90% |
Break down every HOU vs. NYY hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
Three-game slate, so we’re not diving deep into lineups. Just play everyone here in a home run ballpark. Taillon is fine, but not great. The fear is the Yankee bullpen shutting the door on the Astros, but Taillon will get some run. His 1.24 HR/9 isn’t high, but it’s the second-worst on the slate since 2021. Same for his 7.4% barrel rate.
Optimal Plays – Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker
Secondary Plays – Everyone else
Stackability – GREEN
MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: NYY Batting
| Player | DK Salary | FD Salary | DK/FD Proj | Baseline ISO (L/R) | Baseline wOBA | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ LeMahieu | 4700 | 3200 | 7.6 / 9.75 | 0.129 / 0.123 | 0.331 / 0.328 | 4.40% |
| Aaron Judge | 5900 | 4100 | 9.5 / 12.49 | 0.316 / 0.347 | 0.389 / 0.414 | 20.20% |
| Anthony Rizzo | 5600 | 4000 | 8.18 / 10.67 | 0.242 / 0.258 | 0.349 / 0.365 | 9.00% |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 5200 | 3800 | 8.52 / 11.18 | 0.27 / 0.288 | 0.363 / 0.38 | 17.90% |
| Josh Donaldson | 4000 | 2900 | 7.19 / 9.58 | 0.252 / 0.198 | 0.341 / 0.31 | 15.40% |
| Gleyber Torres | 4300 | 3700 | 6.88 / 8.85 | 0.262 / 0.184 | 0.356 / 0.295 | 9.00% |
| Aaron Hicks | 2900 | 2800 | 6.18 / 8.08 | 0.143 / 0.107 | 0.301 / 0.286 | 5.10% |
| Kyle Higashioka | 2700 | 2500 | 5.64 / 7.24 | 0.225 / 0.191 | 0.291 / 0.273 | 14.10% |
| Joey Gallo | 3000 | 3000 | 6.45 / 8.63 | 0.24 / 0.267 | 0.316 / 0.334 | 18.60% |
Break down every HOU vs. NYY hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
Not the best stack on the slate, but the Yankees can get there against anyone with command issues. They don’t strike out as much as they used to and it’s forcing pitchers to throw strikes. Which isn’t working out so well for pitchers. This is the fourth-best stack on the slate and the Astros bullpen is good, but it’s the Yankees. You know the potential here.
Optimal Plays – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Donaldson
Secondary Plays – Everyone else
Stackability – GREEN
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