MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 6/23: Cardinals at Brewers

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Thursday, June 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


STL vs. MIL


MLB DFS Analysis: Dakota Hudson (RHP | -101)

8300 DK ( 16.60% of cap) / 8400 FD ( 24.00% of cap) / 34 Y ( 24.00% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 9.56 Exit Velocity 89.00
PlateIQ FD Proj. 20.53 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 11.25 Barrel % 4.50%
DK Pts$ 1.15 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 2.44 Statcast Hard% 41.30%
Y Pts$ 3.31 Hard% Percentile NA

See More Stats Made Simple for STL vs. MIL : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 14.00 Games 14.00
Expected L 4.00 Expected R 5.00
xFIP L 4.88 xFIP R 4.35
K/9 L 4.76 K/9 R 5.45
BB/9 L 4.76 BB/9 R 2.72
GB/FB L 2.50 GB/FB R 1.85
HR/9 L 0.23 HR/9 R 0.68
Hard% L 27.50% Hard% R 32.00%

See More Stats Made Simple for STL vs. MIL : Try PlateIQ Premium!

4.97 K/9 this season in 70.2 IP.

Quick Breakdown: Hell no.

MLB DFS Analysis: Jason Alexander (RHP | -118)

6500 DK ( 13.00% of cap) / 6800 FD ( 19.43% of cap) / 25 Y ( 19.43% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 9.53 Exit Velocity NA
PlateIQ FD Proj. 20.01 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 11.40 Barrel % NA
DK Pts$ 1.47 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 2.94 Statcast Hard% NA
Y Pts$ 4.56 Hard% Percentile NA

See More Stats Made Simple for STL vs. MIL : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games NA Games 14.00
Expected L 4.00 Expected R 5.00
xFIP L NA xFIP R NA
K/9 L NA K/9 R NA
BB/9 L NA BB/9 R NA
GB/FB L NA GB/FB R NA
HR/9 L NA HR/9 R NA
Hard% L NA Hard% R NA

See More Stats Made Simple for STL vs. MIL : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Small 22.1 IP sample, but he has more BB/9 than K/9

Quick Breakdown: Maybe he knows all of the public restrooms in Milwaukee, but he isn’t a real starting pitcher.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: STL Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Tommy Edman 5300 3800 8.5 / 11.08 0.161 / 0.14 0.324 / 0.318 4.90%
Brendan Donovan 4300 3300 7.91 / 10.48 0.111 / 0.121 0.32 / 0.339 1.60%
Paul Goldschmidt 5400 4100 9.36 / 12.52 0.298 / 0.248 0.416 / 0.367 12.90%
Nolan Arenado 5200 3700 7.58 / 10.21 0.268 / 0.22 0.346 / 0.306 6.90%
Nolan Gorman 3600 3000 7.84 / 10.34 0.214 / 0.221 0.315 / 0.318 16.40%
Dylan Carlson 2700 2700 7.07 / 9.28 0.182 / 0.15 0.339 / 0.316 6.30%
Harrison Bader 2500 3300 6.99 / 9.02 0.161 / 0.164 0.301 / 0.3 5.70%
Lars Nootbaar 2000 2000 6.17 / 8.16 0.165 / 0.152 0.293 / 0.281 4.20%
Ivan Herrera 2000 2000 1.72 / 2.17 0.041 / 0.02 0.101 / 0.075 NA

Break down every STL vs. MIL hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Playing everyone is fine here. But this is more of an MME play than optimal. Secondary stacking is probably best against a righty.

Optimal Plays – Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Plays – Nolan Gorman, Nolan Arenado

Stackability – YELLOW


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: MIL Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Christian Yelich 4600 3100 9.05 / 12.07 0.17 / 0.174 0.328 / 0.344 8.80%
Willy Adames 5200 3500 8.25 / 10.93 0.242 / 0.253 0.335 / 0.339 12.80%
Rowdy Tellez 3900 3000 8.47 / 11.16 0.198 / 0.237 0.326 / 0.353 11.20%
Andrew McCutchen 4000 3300 6.9 / 9.24 0.22 / 0.133 0.342 / 0.277 8.50%
Hunter Renfroe 3700 3800 7.33 / 9.72 0.284 / 0.248 0.342 / 0.31 14.20%
Omar Narvaez 4200 2200 6.52 / 8.61 0.108 / 0.129 0.293 / 0.309 4.80%
Luis Urias 3700 3000 6.51 / 8.6 0.185 / 0.171 0.318 / 0.315 8.90%
Jace Peterson 3000 2500 6.84 / 8.99 0.155 / 0.182 0.313 / 0.333 6.40%
Tyrone Taylor 3000 2300 5.98 / 7.69 0.202 / 0.216 0.309 / 0.309 7.50%

Break down every STL vs. MIL hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Hudon has only surrendered a 5.1% barrel rate this season, so I’m wary to stack against him. That said, the Brewers are open for one-off business.

Optimal Plays – Rowdy Tellez, Willy Adames

Secondary Plays – Hunter Renfroe, Christian Yelich

Stackability – YELLOW

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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