MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 6/23: Cubs at Pirates

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Thursday, June 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


CHC vs. PIT


MLB DFS Analysis: Justin Steele (LHP | -118)

7200 DK ( 14.40% of cap) / 7700 FD ( 22.00% of cap) / 31 Y ( 22.00% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 12.01 Exit Velocity 87.20
PlateIQ FD Proj. 23.97 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 13.45 Barrel % 3.60%
DK Pts$ 1.67 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 3.11 Statcast Hard% 33.70%
Y Pts$ 4.34 Hard% Percentile NA

See More Stats Made Simple for CHC vs. PIT : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 22.00 Games 22.00
Expected L 3.00 Expected R 6.00
xFIP L 3.18 xFIP R 4.39
K/9 L 12.84 K/9 R 7.41
BB/9 L 5.60 BB/9 R 3.96
GB/FB L 1.89 GB/FB R 1.74
HR/9 L 0.33 HR/9 R 1.42
Hard% L 30.20% Hard% R 27.20%

See More Stats Made Simple for CHC vs. PIT : Try PlateIQ Premium!

1.16 HR/9 on a 3.6% barrel rate since 2021. The Pirates are horrible and they strike out a lot. Also, this is a pitchers’ park.

Quick Breakdown: Steele is the premier SP2 on DK where we’re not spending up to Alex Wood.

MLB DFS Analysis: Jose Quintana (LHP | 100)

7600 DK ( 15.20% of cap) / 7200 FD ( 20.57% of cap) / 34 Y ( 20.57% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 13.55 Exit Velocity 88.50
PlateIQ FD Proj. 27.39 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 15.19 Barrel % 10.80%
DK Pts$ 1.78 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 3.80 Statcast Hard% 41.80%
Y Pts$ 4.47 Hard% Percentile NA

See More Stats Made Simple for CHC vs. PIT : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 23.00 Games 22.00
Expected L 3.00 Expected R 6.00
xFIP L 2.43 xFIP R 4.39
K/9 L 13.63 K/9 R 8.55
BB/9 L 3.93 BB/9 R 4.08
GB/FB L 2.35 GB/FB R 1.22
HR/9 L 0.52 HR/9 R 1.65
Hard% L 19.40% Hard% R 36.10%

See More Stats Made Simple for CHC vs. PIT : Try PlateIQ Premium!

7.73 K/9, 3.09 BB/9, but he faces the Cubs, so Jose Quintana is viable for the matchup and ballpark. We just don’t have to go here outside of MME.

Quick Breakdown: Fine low-ceiling MME play.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: CHC Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Christopher Morel 3700 3200 7.84 / 10.11 0.19 / 0.198 0.298 / 0.305 13.80%
Willson Contreras 5000 3600 9.47 / 12.4 0.322 / 0.2 0.397 / 0.316 11.00%
Ian Happ 3500 3200 8.71 / 11.44 0.194 / 0.202 0.343 / 0.36 10.60%
Patrick Wisdom 3600 2600 8.15 / 10.77 0.259 / 0.246 0.335 / 0.32 16.90%
Yan Gomes 2700 2200 7.16 / 9.15 0.165 / 0.151 0.305 / 0.296 7.60%
Jonathan Villar 3800 2700 6.97 / 8.93 0.131 / 0.128 0.29 / 0.286 6.00%
Nico Hoerner 3200 2400 6.95 / 8.7 0.108 / 0.105 0.307 / 0.307 2.40%
Nelson Velazquez 2600 2000 5.49 / 6.92 0.057 / 0.057 0.265 / 0.265 0.00%
P.J. Higgins 2300 2100 5.47 / 6.92 0.095 / 0.096 0.278 / 0.272 NA

Break down every CHC vs. PIT hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

I hate stacking against this version of Quintana. He gives up double power, but not homers. With the GABP on the slate, we need power. It’s such a high walk situation for the Cubs that Quintana can pitch himself out of the game; and then, we get the terrible Pirates pen, so Cubs hitters are in play.

Optimal Plays – Patrick Wisdom, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Ian Happ, Christopher Morel.

Stackability – YELLOW


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: PIT Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Ke’Bryan Hayes 4100 3000 9.07 / 11.72 0.151 / 0.125 0.34 / 0.318 5.50%
Bryan Reynolds 4400 2900 9.2 / 11.97 0.182 / 0.221 0.348 / 0.376 9.00%
Diego Castillo 2500 2300 6.9 / 8.81 0.18 / 0.088 0.298 / 0.233 9.40%
Michael Chavis 2900 2200 7.49 / 9.64 0.205 / 0.147 0.323 / 0.269 7.10%
Jack Suwinski 2600 2900 7.13 / 9.35 0.203 / 0.222 0.298 / 0.319 13.70%
Yu Chang 2300 2100 6.22 / 8.03 0.162 / 0.164 0.266 / 0.275 NA
Oneil Cruz 3300 3100 7.06 / 9.16 0.175 / 0.18 0.303 / 0.306 16.70%
Tyler Heineman 2500 2100 5.37 / 6.86 0.09 / 0.101 0.243 / 0.265 0.00%
Bligh Madris 3900 2000 5.64 / 7.23 0.169 / 0.177 0.274 / 0.279 18.20%

Break down every CHC vs. PIT hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

I hate everyone here. If we need a one-off, we can target Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, or Oneil Cruz, but the stack has low upside.

Optimal Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz

Stackability – ORANGE

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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