MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 6/23: Cubs at Pirates
The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Thursday, June 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Stackability Rating System:
BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
CHC vs. PIT
MLB DFS Analysis: Justin Steele (LHP | -118)
7200 DK ( 14.40% of cap) / 7700 FD ( 22.00% of cap) / 31 Y ( 22.00% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
| Projections | Proj. | Statcast Metrics | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PlateIQ DK Proj. | 12.01 | Exit Velocity | 87.20 |
| PlateIQ FD Proj. | 23.97 | EV Percentile | NA |
| PlateIQ Y Proj. | 13.45 | Barrel % | 3.60% |
| DK Pts$ | 1.67 | Barrel Percentile | NA |
| FD Pts$ | 3.11 | Statcast Hard% | 33.70% |
| Y Pts$ | 4.34 | Hard% Percentile | NA |
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MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
| Key Stats vs. L | Proj. | Key Stats vs. R | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 22.00 | Games | 22.00 |
| Expected L | 3.00 | Expected R | 6.00 |
| xFIP L | 3.18 | xFIP R | 4.39 |
| K/9 L | 12.84 | K/9 R | 7.41 |
| BB/9 L | 5.60 | BB/9 R | 3.96 |
| GB/FB L | 1.89 | GB/FB R | 1.74 |
| HR/9 L | 0.33 | HR/9 R | 1.42 |
| Hard% L | 30.20% | Hard% R | 27.20% |
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1.16 HR/9 on a 3.6% barrel rate since 2021. The Pirates are horrible and they strike out a lot. Also, this is a pitchers’ park.
Quick Breakdown: Steele is the premier SP2 on DK where we’re not spending up to Alex Wood.
MLB DFS Analysis: Jose Quintana (LHP | 100)
7600 DK ( 15.20% of cap) / 7200 FD ( 20.57% of cap) / 34 Y ( 20.57% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
| PlateIQ Category | Proj. | Statcast Metrics | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PlateIQ DK Proj. | 13.55 | Exit Velocity | 88.50 |
| PlateIQ FD Proj. | 27.39 | EV Percentile | NA |
| PlateIQ Y Proj. | 15.19 | Barrel % | 10.80% |
| DK Pts$ | 1.78 | Barrel Percentile | NA |
| FD Pts$ | 3.80 | Statcast Hard% | 41.80% |
| Y Pts$ | 4.47 | Hard% Percentile | NA |
See More Stats Made Simple for CHC vs. PIT : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
| Key Stats vs. L | Proj. | Key Stats vs. R | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 23.00 | Games | 22.00 |
| Expected L | 3.00 | Expected R | 6.00 |
| xFIP L | 2.43 | xFIP R | 4.39 |
| K/9 L | 13.63 | K/9 R | 8.55 |
| BB/9 L | 3.93 | BB/9 R | 4.08 |
| GB/FB L | 2.35 | GB/FB R | 1.22 |
| HR/9 L | 0.52 | HR/9 R | 1.65 |
| Hard% L | 19.40% | Hard% R | 36.10% |
See More Stats Made Simple for CHC vs. PIT : Try PlateIQ Premium!
7.73 K/9, 3.09 BB/9, but he faces the Cubs, so Jose Quintana is viable for the matchup and ballpark. We just don’t have to go here outside of MME.
Quick Breakdown: Fine low-ceiling MME play.
MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: CHC Batting
| Player | DK Salary | FD Salary | DK/FD Proj | Baseline ISO (L/R) | Baseline wOBA | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 3700 | 3200 | 7.84 / 10.11 | 0.19 / 0.198 | 0.298 / 0.305 | 13.80% |
| Willson Contreras | 5000 | 3600 | 9.47 / 12.4 | 0.322 / 0.2 | 0.397 / 0.316 | 11.00% |
| Ian Happ | 3500 | 3200 | 8.71 / 11.44 | 0.194 / 0.202 | 0.343 / 0.36 | 10.60% |
| Patrick Wisdom | 3600 | 2600 | 8.15 / 10.77 | 0.259 / 0.246 | 0.335 / 0.32 | 16.90% |
| Yan Gomes | 2700 | 2200 | 7.16 / 9.15 | 0.165 / 0.151 | 0.305 / 0.296 | 7.60% |
| Jonathan Villar | 3800 | 2700 | 6.97 / 8.93 | 0.131 / 0.128 | 0.29 / 0.286 | 6.00% |
| Nico Hoerner | 3200 | 2400 | 6.95 / 8.7 | 0.108 / 0.105 | 0.307 / 0.307 | 2.40% |
| Nelson Velazquez | 2600 | 2000 | 5.49 / 6.92 | 0.057 / 0.057 | 0.265 / 0.265 | 0.00% |
| P.J. Higgins | 2300 | 2100 | 5.47 / 6.92 | 0.095 / 0.096 | 0.278 / 0.272 | NA |
Break down every CHC vs. PIT hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
I hate stacking against this version of Quintana. He gives up double power, but not homers. With the GABP on the slate, we need power. It’s such a high walk situation for the Cubs that Quintana can pitch himself out of the game; and then, we get the terrible Pirates pen, so Cubs hitters are in play.
Optimal Plays – Patrick Wisdom, Willson Contreras
Secondary Plays – Ian Happ, Christopher Morel.
Stackability – YELLOW
MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: PIT Batting
| Player | DK Salary | FD Salary | DK/FD Proj | Baseline ISO (L/R) | Baseline wOBA | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ke’Bryan Hayes | 4100 | 3000 | 9.07 / 11.72 | 0.151 / 0.125 | 0.34 / 0.318 | 5.50% |
| Bryan Reynolds | 4400 | 2900 | 9.2 / 11.97 | 0.182 / 0.221 | 0.348 / 0.376 | 9.00% |
| Diego Castillo | 2500 | 2300 | 6.9 / 8.81 | 0.18 / 0.088 | 0.298 / 0.233 | 9.40% |
| Michael Chavis | 2900 | 2200 | 7.49 / 9.64 | 0.205 / 0.147 | 0.323 / 0.269 | 7.10% |
| Jack Suwinski | 2600 | 2900 | 7.13 / 9.35 | 0.203 / 0.222 | 0.298 / 0.319 | 13.70% |
| Yu Chang | 2300 | 2100 | 6.22 / 8.03 | 0.162 / 0.164 | 0.266 / 0.275 | NA |
| Oneil Cruz | 3300 | 3100 | 7.06 / 9.16 | 0.175 / 0.18 | 0.303 / 0.306 | 16.70% |
| Tyler Heineman | 2500 | 2100 | 5.37 / 6.86 | 0.09 / 0.101 | 0.243 / 0.265 | 0.00% |
| Bligh Madris | 3900 | 2000 | 5.64 / 7.23 | 0.169 / 0.177 | 0.274 / 0.279 | 18.20% |
Break down every CHC vs. PIT hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
I hate everyone here. If we need a one-off, we can target Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, or Oneil Cruz, but the stack has low upside.
Optimal Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz
Stackability – ORANGE
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