MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 6/23: Dodgers at Reds

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Thursday, June 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


LAD vs. CIN


MLB DFS Analysis: Clayton Kershaw (LHP | -224)

10200 DK ( 20.40% of cap) / 10300 FD ( 29.43% of cap) / 47 Y ( 29.43% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 16.59 Exit Velocity 87.80
PlateIQ FD Proj. 29.70 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 18.69 Barrel % 6.40%
DK Pts$ 1.63 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 2.88 Statcast Hard% 35.50%
Y Pts$ 3.98 Hard% Percentile NA

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MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 29.00 Games 29.00
Expected L 0.00 Expected R 9.00
xFIP L 3.11 xFIP R 2.80
K/9 L 9.28 K/9 R 10.68
BB/9 L 1.90 BB/9 R 1.37
GB/FB L 1.71 GB/FB R 1.38
HR/9 L 0.21 HR/9 R 1.30
Hard% L 29.70% Hard% R 34.10%

See More Stats Made Simple for LAD vs. CIN : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Clayton Kershaw would be in 100% of my DK lineups, which is why I’m not playing on DK. The argument against him on FD is that Robbie Ray faces the A’s on that site. Without Ray on DK, I don’t care about the ballpark because Kershaw has moved on past Bad Kershaw. Bad Kershaw had a longball problem. This Kershaw has only given up 1.01 HR/9 on a 6.4% barrel rate since 2021. 10.31 K/9 and 1.51 BB/9 over that stretch and we have ourselves an ace-like 3.03 SIERA.

Quick Breakdown: Kershaw’s an ace again. The Reds are bad without Votto. They don’t strike out a ton, but strikeout matchups aren’t great for most of this slate.

MLB DFS Analysis: Hunter Greene (RHP | 188)

9600 DK ( 19.20% of cap) / 9000 FD ( 25.71% of cap) / 31 Y ( 25.71% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 13.06 Exit Velocity 89.40
PlateIQ FD Proj. 25.89 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 14.47 Barrel % 10.80%
DK Pts$ 1.36 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 2.88 Statcast Hard% 34.70%
Y Pts$ 4.67 Hard% Percentile NA

See More Stats Made Simple for LAD vs. CIN : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 13.00 Games 29.00
Expected L 0.00 Expected R 9.00
xFIP L 3.94 xFIP R 4.08
K/9 L 12.03 K/9 R 11.49
BB/9 L 4.54 BB/9 R 3.16
GB/FB L 0.47 GB/FB R 0.46
HR/9 L 1.07 HR/9 R 3.73
Hard% L 29.90% Hard% R 38.90%

See More Stats Made Simple for LAD vs. CIN : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Hunter Greene is very tempting because of the stuff, but I don’t play “just good stuff” against the Dodgers. Certainly not in a home run problem with the “just good stuff” struggles to keep the ball in the ballpark. 2.35 HR/9 is a small sample problem, but probably not by much.

Quick Breakdown: Greene should regress toward the mean, as his 11.77 K/9 through 65.0 IP is filthy. I just don’t expect his power prevention to show up against the Dodgers.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: LAD Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Trea Turner 6100 3900 10.96 / 14.01 0.232 / 0.19 0.375 / 0.339 7.80%
Freddie Freeman 5900 3800 11.26 / 14.83 0.21 / 0.207 0.368 / 0.372 11.40%
Will Smith 5400 2900 9.88 / 13.03 0.244 / 0.224 0.363 / 0.352 10.90%
Max Muncy 5100 2600 10.65 / 14.4 0.24 / 0.225 0.349 / 0.352 14.90%
Chris Taylor 3800 2500 8.94 / 11.7 0.227 / 0.204 0.342 / 0.322 10.80%
Justin Turner 4300 2700 8.14 / 10.63 0.195 / 0.178 0.324 / 0.318 7.80%
Gavin Lux 3700 2500 7.92 / 10.33 0.129 / 0.14 0.308 / 0.32 4.90%
Cody Bellinger 4200 2500 8.45 / 10.97 0.162 / 0.214 0.278 / 0.318 7.60%
Austin Barnes 3000 2000 6.71 / 8.72 0.181 / 0.176 0.304 / 0.298 5.10%

Break down every LAD vs. CIN hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Play everyone. Greene is gonna get his Ks, but there’s gonna be so much hard contact that this park won’t contain it all. If there’s a spot that I would bet on three or four homers, I’d put that bet on the Dodgers against Greene today.

Optimal Plays – Everyone

Secondary Plays – Everyone

Stackability – BLUE


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: CIN Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Jonathan India 4200 2800 7.55 / 9.67 0.177 / 0.185 0.324 / 0.326 8.90%
Brandon Drury 5400 3400 7.62 / 9.81 0.276 / 0.211 0.348 / 0.313 9.90%
Tommy Pham 5300 3400 7.53 / 9.83 0.201 / 0.177 0.344 / 0.327 9.90%
Kyle Farmer 4100 3100 6.23 / 7.96 0.229 / 0.112 0.355 / 0.243 4.70%
Donovan Solano 2600 2100 6.35 / 8.09 0.166 / 0.159 0.313 / 0.314 7.80%
Matt Reynolds 2700 2200 5.5 / 7.01 0.148 / 0.115 0.315 / 0.279 4.20%
Albert Almora 2900 2500 5.54 / 6.92 0.109 / 0.131 0.285 / 0.305 2.20%
Nick Senzel 3600 2300 5.6 / 7.06 0.126 / 0.111 0.289 / 0.286 4.20%
Chris Okey 2100 2000 4.67 / 5.95 0.156 / 0.153 0.263 / 0.262 0.00%

Break down every LAD vs. CIN hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

With Jonathan India in the lineup, the Reds are much better, but no Votto is a big step back. This version of Kershaw is very strong and I’m skeptical of how many people will play him — so this isn’t even a leverage spot. Hard to fade any team in this ballpark, but Kershaw’s that damn good right now.

Optimal Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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