MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 6/23: Giants at Braves

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Thursday, June 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


SFG vs. ATL


MLB DFS Analysis: Alex Wood (LHP | 140)

9000 DK ( 18.00% of cap) / 8600 FD ( 24.57% of cap) / 32 Y ( 24.57% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 12.92 Exit Velocity 89.10
PlateIQ FD Proj. 25.64 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 14.75 Barrel % 5.60%
DK Pts$ 1.44 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 2.98 Statcast Hard% 39.70%
Y Pts$ 4.61 Hard% Percentile NA

See More Stats Made Simple for SFG vs. ATL : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 39.00 Games 39.00
Expected L 2.00 Expected R 7.00
xFIP L 3.06 xFIP R 3.47
K/9 L 8.57 K/9 R 9.75
BB/9 L 2.01 BB/9 R 2.65
GB/FB L 2.50 GB/FB R 1.77
HR/9 L 0.73 HR/9 R 0.92
Hard% L 17.30% Hard% R 30.70%

See More Stats Made Simple for SFG vs. ATL : Try PlateIQ Premium!

After the top tier of two pitchers on FD and one on DK, Alex Wood is in the next tier and priced adequately. The idea of pitching someone against the Braves feels dirty, but they do have a 23.6% K rate since 2021 against LHPs, so there’s a path to success for Wood to get SP2’d on DK. His Ks are fine, his control is fine, and his power prevention is among the best in the league.

Quick Breakdown: I like bringing some Ks and great power prevention to the Braves when the pitcher will be underowned.

MLB DFS Analysis: Kyle Wright (RHP | -163)

9900 DK ( 19.80% of cap) / 10500 FD ( 30.00% of cap) / 39 Y ( 30.00% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 16.15 Exit Velocity 89.40
PlateIQ FD Proj. 30.91 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 17.85 Barrel % 8.50%
DK Pts$ 1.63 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 2.94 Statcast Hard% 37.20%
Y Pts$ 4.58 Hard% Percentile NA

See More Stats Made Simple for SFG vs. ATL : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 15.00 Games 39.00
Expected L 2.00 Expected R 7.00
xFIP L 4.17 xFIP R 2.89
K/9 L 9.49 K/9 R 10.18
BB/9 L 4.43 BB/9 R 2.08
GB/FB L 1.13 GB/FB R 2.67
HR/9 L 0.63 HR/9 R 0.62
Hard% L 31.00% Hard% R 23.90%

See More Stats Made Simple for SFG vs. ATL : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Kyle Wright is so expensive and I’m not sure if he can have 3.24 BB/9 with an 8.5% barrel rate allowed and be matchup-proof. So I’m out on Wright.

Quick Breakdown: We’re starved for obviously great cheap pitching on this slate, but we have options on which to spend up away from Wright.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: SFG Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Mike Yastrzemski 3700 2900 8.63 / 11.5 0.206 / 0.203 0.309 / 0.337 10.60%
Wilmer Flores 4200 2800 7.75 / 10.06 0.165 / 0.171 0.311 / 0.321 5.90%
Darin Ruf 3500 2600 7.32 / 9.79 0.224 / 0.135 0.348 / 0.302 11.40%
Joc Pederson 4300 3500 8.8 / 11.5 0.22 / 0.273 0.335 / 0.379 12.50%
Evan Longoria 3100 2300 7.53 / 9.86 0.229 / 0.213 0.337 / 0.327 13.50%
Thairo Estrada 3900 3000 6.9 / 8.72 0.129 / 0.133 0.302 / 0.306 3.80%
Tommy La Stella 3000 2300 6.39 / 8.17 0.15 / 0.16 0.313 / 0.311 5.60%
Austin Slater 3400 2600 7.4 / 9.57 0.201 / 0.157 0.349 / 0.324 10.00%
Curt Casali 2700 2400 5.25 / 6.89 0.204 / 0.133 0.309 / 0.255 6.00%

Break down every SFG vs. ATL hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Wright is a really good pitcher, so we’re not picking on him, but we can try to actualize those barrels into homers with this powerful bunch. Not sure what the lineup will look like, I can just say to play everyone, but as three-man stacks at lower exposure.

Optimal Plays – Joc Pederson, Darin Ruf, Evan Longoria, Mike Yastrzemski

Secondary Plays – Everyone else

Stackability – YELLOW


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: ATL Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Dansby Swanson 5600 3700 8.51 / 11.2 0.209 / 0.182 0.341 / 0.307 11.60%
Travis d’Arnaud 4300 3600 8.27 / 10.75 0.209 / 0.193 0.338 / 0.315 8.70%
Marcell Ozuna 4000 3000 8.22 / 10.81 0.183 / 0.231 0.309 / 0.338 12.30%
Matt Olson 4200 3300 8.04 / 10.77 0.241 / 0.249 0.352 / 0.352 12.50%
William Contreras 4400 3000 7.96 / 10.55 0.247 / 0.234 0.354 / 0.332 13.70%
Orlando Arcia 3500 2600 7.02 / 9.12 0.145 / 0.162 0.308 / 0.325 6.60%
Phil Gosselin 2000 2000 6.58 / 8.53 0.153 / 0.154 0.303 / 0.301 3.40%
Guillermo Heredia 2000 2000 5.6 / 7.29 0.153 / 0.135 0.288 / 0.273 5.60%
Michael Harris 3000 3500 6 / 7.59 0.162 / 0.173 0.319 / 0.315 NA

Break down every SFG vs. ATL hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

I don’t stack against Wood’s 5.6% barrel rate and I hate stacking with the knowledge of the Giants’ bullpen to come. They might be the best bullpen in the league.

Optimal Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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