MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 6/23: Guardians at Twins

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Thursday, June 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


CLE vs. MIN


MLB DFS Analysis: Zach Plesac (RHP | 116)

6100 DK ( 12.20% of cap) / 8200 FD ( 23.43% of cap) / 31 Y ( 23.43% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 9.59 Exit Velocity 90.40
PlateIQ FD Proj. 22.37 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 11.10 Barrel % 10.40%
DK Pts$ 1.57 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 2.73 Statcast Hard% 43.30%
Y Pts$ 3.58 Hard% Percentile NA

See More Stats Made Simple for CLE vs. MIN : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 37.00 Games 37.00
Expected L 5.00 Expected R 4.00
xFIP L 5.27 xFIP R 4.22
K/9 L 5.65 K/9 R 6.59
BB/9 L 3.35 BB/9 R 1.09
GB/FB L 1.07 GB/FB R 1.20
HR/9 L 1.24 HR/9 R 1.55
Hard% L 32.20% Hard% R 34.90%

See More Stats Made Simple for CLE vs. MIN : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Zach Plesac brings a 10.4% barrel rate since 2021 into this contest.

Quick Breakdown: That’s bad.

MLB DFS Analysis: Devin Smeltzer (LHP | -136)

5700 DK ( 11.40% of cap) / 7000 FD ( 20.00% of cap) / 36 Y ( 20.00% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 9.34 Exit Velocity 88.40
PlateIQ FD Proj. 19.92 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 11.07 Barrel % 5.20%
DK Pts$ 1.64 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 2.85 Statcast Hard% 38.10%
Y Pts$ 3.08 Hard% Percentile NA

See More Stats Made Simple for CLE vs. MIN : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 7.00 Games 37.00
Expected L 5.00 Expected R 4.00
xFIP L 3.92 xFIP R 5.44
K/9 L 6.75 K/9 R 4.01
BB/9 L 1.93 BB/9 R 2.67
GB/FB L 1.30 GB/FB R 0.96
HR/9 L 0.00 HR/9 R 1.87
Hard% L 31.00% Hard% R 30.50%

See More Stats Made Simple for CLE vs. MIN : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Devin Smeltzer isn’t particularly good at anything, but he’s cheap on DK and the Guardians lineup is a whole bunch of whatever.

Quick Breakdown: Good matchup, but a bad pitcher.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: CLE Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Owen Miller 4400 2900 7.92 / 10.15 0.148 / 0.139 0.302 / 0.287 4.60%
Amed Rosario 4600 2700 8.68 / 10.96 0.156 / 0.106 0.326 / 0.276 3.10%
Jose Ramirez 6000 4300 10.91 / 14.25 0.279 / 0.344 0.369 / 0.424 10.10%
Oscar Gonzalez 3400 2600 8.12 / 10.35 0.168 / 0.16 0.323 / 0.314 NA
Franmil Reyes 2800 2500 8.3 / 10.91 0.228 / 0.225 0.319 / 0.312 16.90%
Andres Gimenez 4600 2500 7.97 / 10.06 0.164 / 0.189 0.316 / 0.341 5.70%
Ernie Clement 2200 2100 6.39 / 8.01 0.088 / 0.083 0.281 / 0.287 4.30%
Luke Maile 2300 2000 5.74 / 7.44 0.133 / 0.117 0.278 / 0.27 5.10%
Myles Straw 3200 2200 6.32 / 7.99 0.064 / 0.068 0.294 / 0.304 1.10%

Break down every CLE vs. MIN hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Jose Ramirez is the nut play here. After him, we can play anyone.

Optimal Plays – Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes, Andres Gimenez

Secondary Plays – Everyone else

Stackability – GREEN


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: MIN Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Luis Arraez 5200 3200 9.47 / 12.09 0.074 / 0.103 0.315 / 0.356 2.90%
Carlos Correa 5000 3300 10.27 / 13.18 0.169 / 0.191 0.353 / 0.348 10.10%
Max Kepler 4700 2500 9.49 / 12.35 0.18 / 0.203 0.324 / 0.337 10.10%
Gary Sanchez 4700 2500 9.32 / 12.17 0.221 / 0.247 0.303 / 0.318 14.90%
Alex Kirilloff 2500 2400 8.19 / 10.46 0.181 / 0.179 0.307 / 0.301 11.40%
Gio Urshela 3900 2400 7.89 / 10.02 0.153 / 0.145 0.314 / 0.305 8.10%
Trevor Larnach 2600 2200 7.98 / 10.29 0.17 / 0.201 0.304 / 0.333 10.30%
Jose Miranda 3000 2200 6.9 / 8.65 0.165 / 0.154 0.295 / 0.279 5.30%
Nick Gordon 2500 2000 7.4 / 9.23 0.137 / 0.159 0.302 / 0.311 8.70%

Break down every CLE vs. MIN hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

With or Without Byron Buxton, this is a nut spot. The Twins have a ton of power we don’t regularly recognize or play, keeping their prices down. Today, on a shorter slate, against a bad high-contact pitcher with low power prevention, we play everyone.

Optimal Plays – Everyone

Secondary Plays – Everyone

Stackability – BLUE

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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