MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 6/23: Phillies at Padres
The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Thursday, June 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Stackability Rating System:
BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
PHI vs. SDP
MLB DFS Analysis: Ranger Suarez (LHP | 128)
7500 DK ( 15.00% of cap) / 7900 FD ( 22.57% of cap) / 31 Y ( 22.57% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
| Projections | Proj. | Statcast Metrics | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PlateIQ DK Proj. | 13.44 | Exit Velocity | 86.80 |
| PlateIQ FD Proj. | 25.79 | EV Percentile | NA |
| PlateIQ Y Proj. | 15.52 | Barrel % | 4.20% |
| DK Pts$ | 1.79 | Barrel Percentile | NA |
| FD Pts$ | 3.26 | Statcast Hard% | 31.40% |
| Y Pts$ | 5.01 | Hard% Percentile | NA |
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MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
| Key Stats vs. L | Proj. | Key Stats vs. R | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 25.00 | Games | 25.00 |
| Expected L | 3.00 | Expected R | 6.00 |
| xFIP L | 2.44 | xFIP R | 4.14 |
| K/9 L | 9.45 | K/9 R | 8.11 |
| BB/9 L | 2.31 | BB/9 R | 3.62 |
| GB/FB L | 4.75 | GB/FB R | 1.71 |
| HR/9 L | 0.00 | HR/9 R | 0.80 |
| Hard% L | 16.20% | Hard% R | 27.60% |
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Ranger Suarez is the top choice for the SP2 on this slate. His 3.87 SIERA ranks third, his 8.47 K/9 ranks second, his 3.26 BB/9 is better than Valdez, and his power prevention is the best on the slate (0.58 H/9 on a 4.2% barrel rate) since 2021. At $7.5k, he’s a steal on this slate.
Quick Breakdown: Without Manny Machado, the Padres don’t have a way to attack Suarez while putting the ball in play. SP2 him.
MLB DFS Analysis: Joe Musgrove (RHP | -151)
9900 DK ( 19.80% of cap) / 11500 FD ( 32.86% of cap) / 50 Y ( 32.86% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
| PlateIQ Category | Proj. | Statcast Metrics | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PlateIQ DK Proj. | 19.01 | Exit Velocity | 87.30 |
| PlateIQ FD Proj. | 34.63 | EV Percentile | NA |
| PlateIQ Y Proj. | 21.26 | Barrel % | 6.30% |
| DK Pts$ | 1.92 | Barrel Percentile | NA |
| FD Pts$ | 3.01 | Statcast Hard% | 37.50% |
| Y Pts$ | 4.25 | Hard% Percentile | NA |
See More Stats Made Simple for PHI vs. SDP : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
| Key Stats vs. L | Proj. | Key Stats vs. R | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 43.00 | Games | 25.00 |
| Expected L | 4.00 | Expected R | 5.00 |
| xFIP L | 3.48 | xFIP R | 3.47 |
| K/9 L | 9.95 | K/9 R | 9.68 |
| BB/9 L | 2.77 | BB/9 R | 2.12 |
| GB/FB L | 1.60 | GB/FB R | 1.14 |
| HR/9 L | 1.08 | HR/9 R | 0.78 |
| Hard% L | 32.50% | Hard% R | 23.80% |
See More Stats Made Simple for PHI vs. SDP : Try PlateIQ Premium!
By a smidgen, Joe Musgrove is the ace of the slate. The differences between him and Valdez-Suarez are thin, but he leads the slate in SIERA, K/9, K-BB%, and has great power prevention data behind him. The Phillies are tough, but they get a huge park downgrade.
Quick Breakdown: Musgrove is good enough to be on top for this slate. It’s hard to not play him on DK, but we can go Suarez on FD to differentiate.
MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: PHI Batting
| Player | DK Salary | FD Salary | DK/FD Proj | Baseline ISO (L/R) | Baseline wOBA | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber | 5100 | 3800 | 8.02 / 10.54 | 0.269 / 0.303 | 0.364 / 0.378 | 18.30% |
| Rhys Hoskins | 4800 | 3700 | 6.77 / 8.84 | 0.302 / 0.229 | 0.373 / 0.319 | 14.50% |
| Bryce Harper | 5700 | 4500 | 8.77 / 11.3 | 0.271 / 0.338 | 0.397 / 0.433 | 17.00% |
| Nick Castellanos | 3900 | 3000 | 6.77 / 8.65 | 0.216 / 0.207 | 0.358 / 0.347 | 9.80% |
| J.T. Realmuto | 4500 | 2900 | 5.82 / 7.45 | 0.163 / 0.151 | 0.316 / 0.306 | 7.50% |
| Didi Gregorius | 4000 | 2500 | 5.5 / 6.92 | 0.133 / 0.143 | 0.283 / 0.295 | 2.50% |
| Odubel Herrera | 2800 | 2200 | 5.88 / 7.35 | 0.158 / 0.185 | 0.311 / 0.323 | 5.10% |
| Alec Bohm | 3300 | 2600 | 4.55 / 5.74 | 0.175 / 0.099 | 0.321 / 0.256 | 7.00% |
| Bryson Stott | 2300 | 2200 | 4.38 / 5.54 | 0.152 / 0.13 | 0.274 / 0.251 | 4.00% |
Break down every PHI vs. SDP hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are viable one-offs, but the upside stops there.
Optimal Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber
Stackability – ORANGE
MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: SDP Batting
| Player | DK Salary | FD Salary | DK/FD Proj | Baseline ISO (L/R) | Baseline wOBA | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jurickson Profar | 4800 | 3100 | 6.77 / 9.1 | 0.143 / 0.155 | 0.296 / 0.31 | 3.70% |
| Jake Cronenworth | 5400 | 3600 | 7.18 / 9.35 | 0.175 / 0.182 | 0.336 / 0.34 | 6.70% |
| Luke Voit | 4700 | 3600 | 7.65 / 10.31 | 0.18 / 0.236 | 0.326 / 0.343 | 15.30% |
| Jorge Alfaro | 3500 | 2100 | 6.45 / 8.43 | 0.225 / 0.158 | 0.325 / 0.271 | 9.30% |
| Ha-seong Kim | 3400 | 2400 | 6.48 / 8.7 | 0.18 / 0.142 | 0.318 / 0.265 | NA |
| Austin Nola | 3400 | 2300 | 5.82 / 7.61 | 0.107 / 0.096 | 0.299 / 0.292 | 1.70% |
| Trent Grisham | 3200 | 2300 | 5.78 / 7.54 | 0.169 / 0.158 | 0.305 / 0.309 | 5.60% |
| Jose Azocar | 2400 | 2200 | 4.77 / 6.1 | 0.097 / 0.089 | 0.261 / 0.27 | 3.00% |
| C.J. Abrams | 2100 | 2000 | 4.74 / 6 | 0.135 / 0.131 | 0.281 / 0.28 | 3.70% |
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Luke Voit is the one-off we can also play instead of Yuli Gurriel and Ha-Seong Kim provides some cheap pop, but generally off of the hitting here. Bad ballpark, good pitching, good ballpark for good pitching.
Optimal Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Luke Voit
Stackability – ORANGE
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