MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 6/23: Phillies at Padres

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Thursday, June 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


PHI vs. SDP


MLB DFS Analysis: Ranger Suarez (LHP | 128)

7500 DK ( 15.00% of cap) / 7900 FD ( 22.57% of cap) / 31 Y ( 22.57% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 13.44 Exit Velocity 86.80
PlateIQ FD Proj. 25.79 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 15.52 Barrel % 4.20%
DK Pts$ 1.79 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 3.26 Statcast Hard% 31.40%
Y Pts$ 5.01 Hard% Percentile NA

See More Stats Made Simple for PHI vs. SDP : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 25.00 Games 25.00
Expected L 3.00 Expected R 6.00
xFIP L 2.44 xFIP R 4.14
K/9 L 9.45 K/9 R 8.11
BB/9 L 2.31 BB/9 R 3.62
GB/FB L 4.75 GB/FB R 1.71
HR/9 L 0.00 HR/9 R 0.80
Hard% L 16.20% Hard% R 27.60%

See More Stats Made Simple for PHI vs. SDP : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Ranger Suarez is the top choice for the SP2 on this slate. His 3.87 SIERA ranks third, his 8.47 K/9 ranks second, his 3.26 BB/9 is better than Valdez, and his power prevention is the best on the slate (0.58 H/9 on a 4.2% barrel rate) since 2021. At $7.5k, he’s a steal on this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Without Manny Machado, the Padres don’t have a way to attack Suarez while putting the ball in play. SP2 him.

MLB DFS Analysis: Joe Musgrove (RHP | -151)

9900 DK ( 19.80% of cap) / 11500 FD ( 32.86% of cap) / 50 Y ( 32.86% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 19.01 Exit Velocity 87.30
PlateIQ FD Proj. 34.63 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 21.26 Barrel % 6.30%
DK Pts$ 1.92 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 3.01 Statcast Hard% 37.50%
Y Pts$ 4.25 Hard% Percentile NA

See More Stats Made Simple for PHI vs. SDP : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 43.00 Games 25.00
Expected L 4.00 Expected R 5.00
xFIP L 3.48 xFIP R 3.47
K/9 L 9.95 K/9 R 9.68
BB/9 L 2.77 BB/9 R 2.12
GB/FB L 1.60 GB/FB R 1.14
HR/9 L 1.08 HR/9 R 0.78
Hard% L 32.50% Hard% R 23.80%

See More Stats Made Simple for PHI vs. SDP : Try PlateIQ Premium!

By a smidgen, Joe Musgrove is the ace of the slate. The differences between him and Valdez-Suarez are thin, but he leads the slate in SIERA, K/9, K-BB%, and has great power prevention data behind him. The Phillies are tough, but they get a huge park downgrade.

Quick Breakdown: Musgrove is good enough to be on top for this slate. It’s hard to not play him on DK, but we can go Suarez on FD to differentiate.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: PHI Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Kyle Schwarber 5100 3800 8.02 / 10.54 0.269 / 0.303 0.364 / 0.378 18.30%
Rhys Hoskins 4800 3700 6.77 / 8.84 0.302 / 0.229 0.373 / 0.319 14.50%
Bryce Harper 5700 4500 8.77 / 11.3 0.271 / 0.338 0.397 / 0.433 17.00%
Nick Castellanos 3900 3000 6.77 / 8.65 0.216 / 0.207 0.358 / 0.347 9.80%
J.T. Realmuto 4500 2900 5.82 / 7.45 0.163 / 0.151 0.316 / 0.306 7.50%
Didi Gregorius 4000 2500 5.5 / 6.92 0.133 / 0.143 0.283 / 0.295 2.50%
Odubel Herrera 2800 2200 5.88 / 7.35 0.158 / 0.185 0.311 / 0.323 5.10%
Alec Bohm 3300 2600 4.55 / 5.74 0.175 / 0.099 0.321 / 0.256 7.00%
Bryson Stott 2300 2200 4.38 / 5.54 0.152 / 0.13 0.274 / 0.251 4.00%

Break down every PHI vs. SDP hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are viable one-offs, but the upside stops there.

Optimal Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – ORANGE


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: SDP Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Jurickson Profar 4800 3100 6.77 / 9.1 0.143 / 0.155 0.296 / 0.31 3.70%
Jake Cronenworth 5400 3600 7.18 / 9.35 0.175 / 0.182 0.336 / 0.34 6.70%
Luke Voit 4700 3600 7.65 / 10.31 0.18 / 0.236 0.326 / 0.343 15.30%
Jorge Alfaro 3500 2100 6.45 / 8.43 0.225 / 0.158 0.325 / 0.271 9.30%
Ha-seong Kim 3400 2400 6.48 / 8.7 0.18 / 0.142 0.318 / 0.265 NA
Austin Nola 3400 2300 5.82 / 7.61 0.107 / 0.096 0.299 / 0.292 1.70%
Trent Grisham 3200 2300 5.78 / 7.54 0.169 / 0.158 0.305 / 0.309 5.60%
Jose Azocar 2400 2200 4.77 / 6.1 0.097 / 0.089 0.261 / 0.27 3.00%
C.J. Abrams 2100 2000 4.74 / 6 0.135 / 0.131 0.281 / 0.28 3.70%

Break down every PHI vs. SDP hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Luke Voit is the one-off we can also play instead of Yuli Gurriel and Ha-Seong Kim provides some cheap pop, but generally off of the hitting here. Bad ballpark, good pitching, good ballpark for good pitching.

Optimal Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Luke Voit

Stackability – ORANGE

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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