MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 6/23: The Grind Down
The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Thursday, June 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Stackability Rating System:
BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.
COL vs. MIA
MLB DFS Analysis: Kyle Freeland (LHP | 128)
6800 DK ( 13.60% of cap) / 7500 FD ( 21.43% of cap) / 29 Y ( 21.43% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
| Projections | Proj. | Statcast Metrics | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PlateIQ DK Proj. | 10.95 | Exit Velocity | 89.00 |
| PlateIQ FD Proj. | 24.68 | EV Percentile | NA |
| PlateIQ Y Proj. | 12.25 | Barrel % | 8.00% |
| DK Pts$ | 1.61 | Barrel Percentile | NA |
| FD Pts$ | 3.29 | Statcast Hard% | 38.10% |
| Y Pts$ | 4.22 | Hard% Percentile | NA |
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MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
| Key Stats vs. L | Proj. | Key Stats vs. R | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 36.00 | Games | 36.00 |
| Expected L | 1.00 | Expected R | 8.00 |
| xFIP L | 4.65 | xFIP R | 4.39 |
| K/9 L | 6.62 | K/9 R | 7.30 |
| BB/9 L | 2.68 | BB/9 R | 2.90 |
| GB/FB L | 1.42 | GB/FB R | 1.21 |
| HR/9 L | 1.43 | HR/9 R | 1.20 |
| Hard% L | 27.20% | Hard% R | 33.90% |
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Kyle Freeland gets to face a below-average lineup with a lot of Ks in it in an extreme pitchers’ park. He’s bad, but we’re not sure that matters at these prices with this matchup in this ballpark.
Quick Breakdown: Freeland isn’t really in play on FD, but we can stretch out to him on DK, where we have to play two pitchers — again for the matchup and the ballpark.
MLB DFS Analysis: Braxton Garrett (LHP | -151)
5400 DK ( 10.80% of cap) / 6500 FD ( 18.57% of cap) / 26 Y ( 18.57% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
| PlateIQ Category | Proj. | Statcast Metrics | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| PlateIQ DK Proj. | 10.74 | Exit Velocity | 89.10 |
| PlateIQ FD Proj. | 24.27 | EV Percentile | NA |
| PlateIQ Y Proj. | 11.86 | Barrel % | 6.70% |
| DK Pts$ | 1.99 | Barrel Percentile | NA |
| FD Pts$ | 3.73 | Statcast Hard% | 40.00% |
| Y Pts$ | 4.56 | Hard% Percentile | NA |
See More Stats Made Simple for COL vs. MIA : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
| Key Stats vs. L | Proj. | Key Stats vs. R | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 10.00 | Games | 36.00 |
| Expected L | 1.00 | Expected R | 8.00 |
| xFIP L | 3.44 | xFIP R | 5.08 |
| K/9 L | 8.10 | K/9 R | 8.02 |
| BB/9 L | 3.38 | BB/9 R | 5.08 |
| GB/FB L | 5.00 | GB/FB R | 0.97 |
| HR/9 L | 0.68 | HR/9 R | 1.07 |
| Hard% L | 20.50% | Hard% R | 32.10% |
See More Stats Made Simple for COL vs. MIA : Try PlateIQ Premium!
Braxton Garrett is a lot worse than Freeland and has a sneaky-bad matchup in the Rockies. Any pitcher can be good in this ballpark from time to time, but we don’t need the savings this bad. And in this price range, I might rather take Devin Smeltzer and his matchup with the Guardians. Not sure.
Quick Breakdown: THE BAT has Garrett to pitch a full workload, so we can pitch in as our SP2. I’d rather just spend up to Freeland, though.
MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: COL Batting
| Player | DK Salary | FD Salary | DK/FD Proj | Baseline ISO (L/R) | Baseline wOBA | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Joe | 4500 | 2700 | 9.1 / 11.7 | 0.155 / 0.144 | 0.338 / 0.329 | 7.20% |
| Yonathan Daza | 3300 | 2400 | 8.46 / 10.5 | 0.099 / 0.067 | 0.331 / 0.311 | 2.50% |
| C.J. Cron | 5000 | 4000 | 8.79 / 11.31 | 0.28 / 0.255 | 0.36 / 0.339 | 12.10% |
| Brendan Rodgers | 4000 | 2700 | 7.99 / 10.16 | 0.21 / 0.146 | 0.345 / 0.28 | 7.00% |
| Ryan McMahon | 2800 | 2800 | 7.69 / 10 | 0.162 / 0.195 | 0.317 / 0.335 | 8.20% |
| Jose Iglesias | 3000 | 2200 | 7.32 / 9.01 | 0.118 / 0.085 | 0.322 / 0.288 | 2.40% |
| Elias Diaz | 2600 | 2400 | 6.92 / 8.77 | 0.16 / 0.156 | 0.304 / 0.303 | 7.00% |
| Elehuris Montero | 2000 | 2000 | 6.55 / 8.31 | 0.212 / 0.212 | 0.305 / 0.305 | 12.50% |
| Sean Bouchard | 2000 | 2000 | 5.53 / 7.02 | 0.157 / 0.157 | 0.265 / 0.265 | 0.00% |
Break down every COL vs. MIA hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
Garrett doesn’t come with many Ks, but he does come with a lot of power prevention. 0.96 HR/9 on a 6.7% barrel rate, so I’m off of the Rockies here in this dumb ballpark, factoring in the Marlins’ strong bullpen. If you wanna one-off C.J. Cron or Connor Joe, it wouldn’t be stupid, though.
Optimal Plays – None
Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron, Connor Joe
Stackability – ORANGE
MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: MIA Batting
| Player | DK Salary | FD Salary | DK/FD Proj | Baseline ISO (L/R) | Baseline wOBA | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Berti | 4700 | 3500 | 8.8 / 11.2 | 0.13 / 0.104 | 0.302 / 0.29 | 3.70% |
| Jazz Chisholm | 5500 | 4000 | 9.27 / 11.74 | 0.188 / 0.266 | 0.294 / 0.368 | NA |
| Jorge Soler | 4100 | 2800 | 8.67 / 11.27 | 0.268 / 0.211 | 0.339 / 0.297 | 12.40% |
| Garrett Cooper | 3300 | 2900 | 9.28 / 11.8 | 0.157 / 0.164 | 0.34 / 0.343 | 10.40% |
| Jesus Aguilar | 2600 | 2800 | 7.82 / 10.06 | 0.16 / 0.188 | 0.298 / 0.307 | 8.30% |
| Avisail Garcia | 3000 | 2500 | 8 / 10.1 | 0.179 / 0.158 | 0.314 / 0.281 | 10.80% |
| Miguel Rojas | 3100 | 2200 | 7.8 / 9.67 | 0.106 / 0.121 | 0.31 / 0.311 | 2.80% |
| Nick Fortes | 3600 | 2800 | 7.53 / 9.45 | 0.185 / 0.182 | 0.316 / 0.321 | 14.00% |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 2000 | 2300 | 6.76 / 8.42 | 0.118 / 0.142 | 0.291 / 0.301 | 5.10% |
Break down every COL vs. MIA hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
Jazz Chisholm is getting to that point where we can roster him in any ballpark, but he’s pretty bad against lefties, so I’m gonna be off of him here. I’d rather attack Freeland’s 8.0% barrel rate with the other power bats in this lineup — Jorge Soler, Garrett Cooper, Avisail Garcia. Not in my top-three stacks, but they won’t be in anyone’s top-three, so we should consider them because the power is there.
Optimal Plays – Jorge Soler, Garrett Cooper, Avisail Garcia
Secondary Plays – Jazz Chisholm
Stackability – YELLOW
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