MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 6/23: The Grind Down

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Thursday, June 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


COL vs. MIA


MLB DFS Analysis: Kyle Freeland (LHP | 128)

6800 DK ( 13.60% of cap) / 7500 FD ( 21.43% of cap) / 29 Y ( 21.43% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 10.95 Exit Velocity 89.00
PlateIQ FD Proj. 24.68 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 12.25 Barrel % 8.00%
DK Pts$ 1.61 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 3.29 Statcast Hard% 38.10%
Y Pts$ 4.22 Hard% Percentile NA

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MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 36.00 Games 36.00
Expected L 1.00 Expected R 8.00
xFIP L 4.65 xFIP R 4.39
K/9 L 6.62 K/9 R 7.30
BB/9 L 2.68 BB/9 R 2.90
GB/FB L 1.42 GB/FB R 1.21
HR/9 L 1.43 HR/9 R 1.20
Hard% L 27.20% Hard% R 33.90%

See More Stats Made Simple for COL vs. MIA : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Kyle Freeland gets to face a below-average lineup with a lot of Ks in it in an extreme pitchers’ park. He’s bad, but we’re not sure that matters at these prices with this matchup in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Freeland isn’t really in play on FD, but we can stretch out to him on DK, where we have to play two pitchers — again for the matchup and the ballpark.

MLB DFS Analysis: Braxton Garrett (LHP | -151)

5400 DK ( 10.80% of cap) / 6500 FD ( 18.57% of cap) / 26 Y ( 18.57% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 10.74 Exit Velocity 89.10
PlateIQ FD Proj. 24.27 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 11.86 Barrel % 6.70%
DK Pts$ 1.99 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 3.73 Statcast Hard% 40.00%
Y Pts$ 4.56 Hard% Percentile NA

See More Stats Made Simple for COL vs. MIA : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 10.00 Games 36.00
Expected L 1.00 Expected R 8.00
xFIP L 3.44 xFIP R 5.08
K/9 L 8.10 K/9 R 8.02
BB/9 L 3.38 BB/9 R 5.08
GB/FB L 5.00 GB/FB R 0.97
HR/9 L 0.68 HR/9 R 1.07
Hard% L 20.50% Hard% R 32.10%

See More Stats Made Simple for COL vs. MIA : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Braxton Garrett is a lot worse than Freeland and has a sneaky-bad matchup in the Rockies. Any pitcher can be good in this ballpark from time to time, but we don’t need the savings this bad. And in this price range, I might rather take Devin Smeltzer and his matchup with the Guardians. Not sure.

Quick Breakdown: THE BAT has Garrett to pitch a full workload, so we can pitch in as our SP2. I’d rather just spend up to Freeland, though.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: COL Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Connor Joe 4500 2700 9.1 / 11.7 0.155 / 0.144 0.338 / 0.329 7.20%
Yonathan Daza 3300 2400 8.46 / 10.5 0.099 / 0.067 0.331 / 0.311 2.50%
C.J. Cron 5000 4000 8.79 / 11.31 0.28 / 0.255 0.36 / 0.339 12.10%
Brendan Rodgers 4000 2700 7.99 / 10.16 0.21 / 0.146 0.345 / 0.28 7.00%
Ryan McMahon 2800 2800 7.69 / 10 0.162 / 0.195 0.317 / 0.335 8.20%
Jose Iglesias 3000 2200 7.32 / 9.01 0.118 / 0.085 0.322 / 0.288 2.40%
Elias Diaz 2600 2400 6.92 / 8.77 0.16 / 0.156 0.304 / 0.303 7.00%
Elehuris Montero 2000 2000 6.55 / 8.31 0.212 / 0.212 0.305 / 0.305 12.50%
Sean Bouchard 2000 2000 5.53 / 7.02 0.157 / 0.157 0.265 / 0.265 0.00%

Break down every COL vs. MIA hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Garrett doesn’t come with many Ks, but he does come with a lot of power prevention. 0.96 HR/9 on a 6.7% barrel rate, so I’m off of the Rockies here in this dumb ballpark, factoring in the Marlins’ strong bullpen. If you wanna one-off C.J. Cron or Connor Joe, it wouldn’t be stupid, though.

Optimal Plays – None

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron, Connor Joe

Stackability – ORANGE


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: MIA Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Jon Berti 4700 3500 8.8 / 11.2 0.13 / 0.104 0.302 / 0.29 3.70%
Jazz Chisholm 5500 4000 9.27 / 11.74 0.188 / 0.266 0.294 / 0.368 NA
Jorge Soler 4100 2800 8.67 / 11.27 0.268 / 0.211 0.339 / 0.297 12.40%
Garrett Cooper 3300 2900 9.28 / 11.8 0.157 / 0.164 0.34 / 0.343 10.40%
Jesus Aguilar 2600 2800 7.82 / 10.06 0.16 / 0.188 0.298 / 0.307 8.30%
Avisail Garcia 3000 2500 8 / 10.1 0.179 / 0.158 0.314 / 0.281 10.80%
Miguel Rojas 3100 2200 7.8 / 9.67 0.106 / 0.121 0.31 / 0.311 2.80%
Nick Fortes 3600 2800 7.53 / 9.45 0.185 / 0.182 0.316 / 0.321 14.00%
Bryan De La Cruz 2000 2300 6.76 / 8.42 0.118 / 0.142 0.291 / 0.301 5.10%

Break down every COL vs. MIA hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Jazz Chisholm is getting to that point where we can roster him in any ballpark, but he’s pretty bad against lefties, so I’m gonna be off of him here. I’d rather attack Freeland’s 8.0% barrel rate with the other power bats in this lineup — Jorge Soler, Garrett Cooper, Avisail Garcia. Not in my top-three stacks, but they won’t be in anyone’s top-three, so we should consider them because the power is there.

Optimal Plays – Jorge Soler, Garrett Cooper, Avisail Garcia

Secondary Plays – Jazz Chisholm

Stackability – YELLOW

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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