MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 8/10: The Grind Down

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Wednesday, August 10 . This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


CIN vs. NYM


MLB DFS Analysis: T.J. Zeuch (RHP | 250)

5200 DK ( 10.40% of cap) / 5600 FD ( 16.00% of cap) / 26 Y ( 16.00% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 3.91 Exit Velocity 91.40
PlateIQ FD Proj. 11.97 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 4.58 Barrel % 15.80%
DK Pts$ 0.75 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 2.14 Statcast Hard% 49.10%
Y Pts$ 1.76 Hard% Percentile NA

See More Stats Made Simple for CIN vs. NYM : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 3.00 Games 3.00
Expected L 6.00 Expected R 3.00
xFIP L 8.33 xFIP R 5.91
K/9 L 2.08 K/9 R 5.91
BB/9 L 8.31 BB/9 R 4.22
GB/FB L 1.43 GB/FB R 1.06
HR/9 L 4.15 HR/9 R 3.38
Hard% L 26.30% Hard% R 47.40%

See More Stats Made Simple for CIN vs. NYM : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Blue Jays legend TJ Zeuch is still at it, as he’ll start today for the Reds at Citi Field. This will be the right-hander’s first MLB outing of the year, and just the 14th of his career. Zeuch has a 14.1% strikeout rate and a 10.9% walk rate through those first 13 big-league games, so we’re not talking about a very good pitcher here. The early slate does actually have quite a few actual good pitchers, so you know what to do here.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid the Zeuch.

MLB DFS Analysis: Taijuan Walker (RHP | -313)

8400 DK ( 16.80% of cap) / 8400 FD ( 24.00% of cap) / 40 Y ( 24.00% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 18.31 Exit Velocity 89.30
PlateIQ FD Proj. 34.08 EV Percentile 54
PlateIQ Y Proj. 20.37 Barrel % 9.20%
DK Pts$ 2.18 Barrel Percentile 67
FD Pts$ 4.06 Statcast Hard% 40.30%
Y Pts$ 5.09 Hard% Percentile 60

See More Stats Made Simple for CIN vs. NYM : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 48.00 Games 3.00
Expected L 6.00 Expected R 3.00
xFIP L 4.59 xFIP R 4.03
K/9 L 8.22 K/9 R 7.38
BB/9 L 3.94 BB/9 R 2.08
GB/FB L 1.00 GB/FB R 1.31
HR/9 L 1.26 HR/9 R 1.15
Hard% L 32.00% Hard% R 31.40%

See More Stats Made Simple for CIN vs. NYM : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Taijuan Walker lasted all of 1 inning in his last start against the Braves, but the Reds are not the Braves. Walker is a better real-life pitcher than DFS commodity, with an 18.7% walk rate and a 4.15 SIERA so far this year. Groundballs (47.3%) are really the name of the game here, while the matchup against Cincy is also appealing. This lineup is just extremely awful these days, with a .115 ISO, .277 wOBA, and an ugly 28.4% K-rate against right-handed pitching. Walker looks like a solid value viable in all formats at $8,400 on both DraftKings and FanDuel as a result.

Quick Breakdown: The matchup and salary put Walker squarely in play.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: CIN Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Jonathan India 4800 3000 7.92 / 9.89 0.155 / 0.203 0.319 / 0.349 7.90%
Nick Senzel 2100 2200 6.87 / 8.57 0.119 / 0.099 0.297 / 0.284 3.40%
Kyle Farmer 3200 2700 5.89 / 7.38 0.186 / 0.106 0.34 / 0.247 4.20%
Joey Votto 3500 2800 7.68 / 9.98 0.191 / 0.243 0.335 / 0.373 15.10%
Donovan Solano 2900 2400 6.27 / 7.82 0.162 / 0.134 0.331 / 0.312 7.10%
Aristides Aquino 2000 2200 5.64 / 7.18 0.192 / 0.204 0.266 / 0.268 12.30%
Jake Fraley 2000 2200 6.73 / 8.67 0.178 / 0.208 0.301 / 0.322 5.10%
Jose Barrero 2000 2500 5.04 / 6.23 0.174 / 0.15 0.283 / 0.267 NA
Michael Papierski 2000 2100 4.24 / 5.42 0.071 / 0.071 0.255 / 0.243 0.00%

Break down every CIN vs. NYM hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

The Reds have a 3.35 total this afternoon against Walker and friends, which is hardly a surprise. Walker’s strikeout and groundball stuff has been a bit worse vs. RHBs this season, so you’d probably start with Jonathan India and Nick Senzel at the top of the order if you want anything here. Joey Votto for kicks as the third guy in your 3-man. Otherwise, yikes.

Optimal Plays – Jonathan India

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Nick Senzel

Stackability – ORANGE


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: NYM Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Brandon Nimmo 5100 3200 10.49 / 13.74 0.161 / 0.156 0.346 / 0.341 5.70%
Starling Marte 5500 3600 9.95 / 12.66 0.172 / 0.153 0.344 / 0.318 7.50%
Francisco Lindor 6000 3900 10.63 / 13.99 0.187 / 0.201 0.317 / 0.336 8.50%
Pete Alonso 6000 4200 10.11 / 13.45 0.29 / 0.267 0.373 / 0.336 14.50%
Daniel Vogelbach 3900 3000 10.18 / 13.76 0.141 / 0.236 0.284 / 0.369 9.80%
Jeff McNeil 4600 2800 8.78 / 11.21 0.092 / 0.145 0.31 / 0.353 3.20%
Tyler Naquin 4800 2900 8.99 / 11.65 0.17 / 0.223 0.283 / 0.338 10.30%
Luis Guillorme 2600 2200 7.07 / 9.26 0.05 / 0.066 0.282 / 0.301 2.20%
James McCann 3800 2100 6.25 / 8.04 0.131 / 0.121 0.273 / 0.269 6.50%

Break down every CIN vs. NYM hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Zeuch has walked more lefties than he’s whiffed in his small major-league sample to date, while a 14.9% strikeout rate vs. RHBs isn’t much more encouraging. He has shown a groundball lean, however, so the Mets that hit the ball in the air look like the priorities in your stacks. Francisco Lindor, Tyler Naquin, and Dan Vogelbach fit the bill with the platoon advantage, while Pete Alonso is an obvious priority if you can spend up over Vogelbach at first base. Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil are the next stops. The Mets (5.87) have the highest run total of the early slate, so I’d imagine this will be the closest thing we have to a chalk offense this afternoon.

Optimal Plays – Pete Alonso / Dan Vogelbach, Tyler Naquin, Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil

Stackability – GREEN

About the Author

  • Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

  • Taylor Smith is a native Texan (required by all fellow Texans to report this at all times) and Southern California-based sports writer. He has been playing daily fantasy sports regularly since 2012, going back to the days of DraftStreet (RIP). He specializes in MLB and NBA while dabbling in a few other sports like a true degen when the other two are out of season. He has written about DFS in the past at Bang The Book, and you can find some of his previous work on SB Nation and FanRag Sports.

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