MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 8/11: The Grind Down

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Thursday, August 11 . This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


MIA vs. PHI


MLB DFS Analysis: Edward Cabrera (RHP | 144)

8600 DK ( 17.20% of cap) / 9800 FD ( 28.00% of cap) / 36 Y ( 28.00% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 14.21 Exit Velocity 87.70
PlateIQ FD Proj. 26.78 EV Percentile 26
PlateIQ Y Proj. 15.69 Barrel % 9.40%
DK Pts$ 1.65 Barrel Percentile 68
FD Pts$ 2.73 Statcast Hard% 39.30%
Y Pts$ 4.36 Hard% Percentile 52

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MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 11.00 Games 11.00
Expected L 4.00 Expected R 5.00
xFIP L 4.70 xFIP R 4.85
K/9 L 8.20 K/9 R 11.76
BB/9 L 5.13 BB/9 R 6.97
GB/FB L 1.57 GB/FB R 1.06
HR/9 L 1.71 HR/9 R 1.31
Hard% L 29.20% Hard% R 38.50%

See More Stats Made Simple for MIA vs. PHI : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Weird schedule today, with a 6-game early slate along with just 2 games in the evening. We’ll start with Edward Cabrera, who got yanked after 5 no-hit innings against the Cubs in his last outing. The right-hander owns an impressive 26.7% K-rate through 4 outings so far this season, but that 14% walk rate is ugly. Cabrera clearly has talent, but a road matchup against the Phillies certainly isn’t an easy one. I understand the appeal of chasing Cabrera’s strikeout upside in tournaments on a limited slate, but we’re also not getting much of a discount here on DraftKings ($8,600) or FanDuel ($9,800).

Quick Breakdown: Cabrera is a high-risk/high-reward GPP option.

MLB DFS Analysis: Kyle Gibson (RHP | -169)

8000 DK ( 16.00% of cap) / 9000 FD ( 25.71% of cap) / 37 Y ( 25.71% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 16.01 Exit Velocity 88.60
PlateIQ FD Proj. 30.43 EV Percentile 40
PlateIQ Y Proj. 18.22 Barrel % 5.60%
DK Pts$ 2.00 Barrel Percentile 23
FD Pts$ 3.38 Statcast Hard% 38.10%
Y Pts$ 4.92 Hard% Percentile 45

See More Stats Made Simple for MIA vs. PHI : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 51.00 Games 11.00
Expected L 4.00 Expected R 5.00
xFIP L 4.62 xFIP R 3.71
K/9 L 6.48 K/9 R 8.16
BB/9 L 3.06 BB/9 R 2.70
GB/FB L 1.39 GB/FB R 1.80
HR/9 L 1.00 HR/9 R 0.94
Hard% L 28.50% Hard% R 33.90%

See More Stats Made Simple for MIA vs. PHI : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Kyle Gibson isn’t much like Edward Cabrera, with a boring old 18.4% K-rate and a 4.26 SIERA on the year. He’s really just a slightly above-average right-hander with a groundball lean (46.5%), and his matchup with the Marlins is good enough to put him in play on a short slate. Miami isn’t big on strikeouts (20.7%), but they’re also not big on power (.151 ISO). $8,000 on DK looks more reasonable than $9,000 on FD for a pitcher with Gibson’s skill set, which makes him a nice SP2 option in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Fine spot for Gibson, who looks more appealing at a cheaper DK salary.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: MIA Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Joey Wendle 4000 2400 6.81 / 8.53 0.113 / 0.121 0.282 / 0.278 3.00%
Miguel Rojas 3000 2300 6.33 / 7.96 0.118 / 0.109 0.308 / 0.284 2.50%
Garrett Cooper 2200 2600 7.31 / 9.37 0.147 / 0.163 0.317 / 0.335 10.30%
JJ Bleday 2100 2300 6.38 / 8.24 NA
Jesus Aguilar 3300 2500 6.5 / 8.36 0.161 / 0.175 0.297 / 0.301 7.90%
Charles Leblanc 2000 2500 5.64 / 7.26 11.10%
Lewin Diaz 2000 2200 6.02 / 7.73 0.192 / 0.183 0.27 / 0.276 9.00%
Nick Fortes 4700 2400 5.82 / 7.35 0.152 / 0.18 0.292 / 0.323 9.80%
Peyton Burdick 2000 2100 4.86 / 6.25 NA NA NA

Break down every MIA vs. PHI hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Gibson’s splits are pretty neutral, but he’s only striking out about 14% of LHBs so far this season. We’ll get some ownership with him on DraftKings, as well, as the Marlins’ 3.6 total ranks as one of the worst on the slate. JJ Bleday, Lewin Diaz, and Joey Wendle could benefit from Gibby’s lack of punchouts vs. left-handed hitters, while we’ll again get very cheap salaries on Jesus Aguilar, Garrett Cooper, Peyton Burdick, and Charles Leblanc. Bleday’s the only hitter projected for much ownership here, and this is a nice park upgrade for Miami’s hitters.

Optimal Plays – JJ Bleday, Jesus Aguilar, Garrett Cooper

Secondary Plays – Joey Wendle, Lewin Diaz

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: PHI Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Kyle Schwarber 6000 3700 9.89 / 13.14 0.255 / 0.328 0.338 / 0.377 19.30%
Rhys Hoskins 4300 3800 9.19 / 12.34 0.279 / 0.25 0.374 / 0.332 14.50%
Alec Bohm 4200 2800 6.86 / 8.94 0.192 / 0.117 0.346 / 0.262 6.70%
J.T. Realmuto 5300 3900 8.33 / 10.93 0.184 / 0.194 0.327 / 0.326 8.80%
Nick Castellanos 3900 2900 8.02 / 10.43 0.206 / 0.202 0.348 / 0.338 9.00%
Darick Hall 3500 3400 7.22 / 9.38 0.206 / 0.262 0.308 / 0.335 19.70%
Jean Segura 3800 2800 6.77 / 8.7 0.179 / 0.145 0.331 / 0.299 5.90%
Bryson Stott 3400 2800 5.48 / 7.1 0.176 / 0.124 0.298 / 0.245 4.20%
Brandon Marsh 2700 2400 6.09 / 7.79 0.118 / 0.148 0.269 / 0.304 8.80%

Break down every MIA vs. PHI hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Cabrera’s inability to command the strike zone gives him major downside, especially against an offense with this much power. The splits aren’t really a huge concern with Cabrera’s walk rates against hitters from either side, so fire up Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto, and Nick Castellanos as you normally would. Darick Hall and Jean Segura are fine values in those stacks, too. The Phillies’ 4.6 total puts them closer to the middle than to the top today, but there’s definite upside here.

Optimal Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto

Secondary Plays – Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, Jean Segura, Darick Hall

Stackability – GREEN

About the Author

  • Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

  • Taylor Smith is a native Texan (required by all fellow Texans to report this at all times) and Southern California-based sports writer. He has been playing daily fantasy sports regularly since 2012, going back to the days of DraftStreet (RIP). He specializes in MLB and NBA while dabbling in a few other sports like a true degen when the other two are out of season. He has written about DFS in the past at Bang The Book, and you can find some of his previous work on SB Nation and FanRag Sports.

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