MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 8/12: The Grind Down

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Friday, August 12. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


ATL vs. MIA


MLB DFS Analysis: Jake Odorizzi (RHP | -147)

15000 DK ( 30.00% of cap) / 8200 FD ( 23.43% of cap) / Y Salary Unavailable Y ( NA of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 14.10 Exit Velocity 89.00
PlateIQ FD Proj. 26.61 EV Percentile 47
PlateIQ Y Proj. 15.96 Barrel % 8.10%
DK Pts$ 0.94 Barrel Percentile 53
FD Pts$ 3.25 Statcast Hard% 36.40%
Y Pts$ NA Hard% Percentile 35

See More Stats Made Simple for ATL vs. MIA : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 36.00 Games 36.00
Expected L 3.00 Expected R 6.00
xFIP L 5.37 xFIP R 4.24
K/9 L 6.95 K/9 R 7.97
BB/9 L 3.99 BB/9 R 1.89
GB/FB L 0.68 GB/FB R 0.81
HR/9 L 0.91 HR/9 R 1.30
Hard% L 28.60% Hard% R 29.20%

See More Stats Made Simple for ATL vs. MIA : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Jake Odorizzi doesn’t strike anyone out and gives up a bit of homers, but his hard hit rate is low. The Marlins are below-average and don’t strike out at a significant enough rate to boost Odorizzi.

Quick Breakdown: Pitching is so expensive in DK showdowns that this is an easy no.

MLB DFS Analysis: Pablo Lopez (RHP | 124)

15600 DK ( 31.20% of cap) / 9600 FD ( 27.43% of cap) / Y Salary Unavailable Y ( NA of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 17.56 Exit Velocity 87.50
PlateIQ FD Proj. 32.13 EV Percentile 23
PlateIQ Y Proj. 19.68 Barrel % 8.20%
DK Pts$ 1.13 Barrel Percentile 54
FD Pts$ 3.35 Statcast Hard% 34.00%
Y Pts$ NA Hard% Percentile 23

See More Stats Made Simple for ATL vs. MIA : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 42.00 Games 36.00
Expected L 3.00 Expected R 6.00
xFIP L 3.91 xFIP R 2.89
K/9 L 7.65 K/9 R 11.60
BB/9 L 2.68 BB/9 R 2.32
GB/FB L 1.44 GB/FB R 1.46
HR/9 L 0.92 HR/9 R 1.08
Hard% L 27.10% Hard% R 32.60%

See More Stats Made Simple for ATL vs. MIA : Try PlateIQ Premium!

In SE, I’m not playing either pitcher, but in MME, we should have some Pablo Lopez. He strikes out a bit more than a man-per-inning and the Braves strike out at one of the highest rates in the league. The Braves can mash, but their active roster’s 24.1% K rate against RHP since 2021 is exploitable.

Quick Breakdown: Lopez should go low-owned because the chalky build should be the Braves stack.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: ATL Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Ronald Acuna 14400 3700 8.28 / 10.87 0.267 / 0.229 0.378 / 0.33 16.40%
Dansby Swanson 12900 3500 7.27 / 9.39 0.202 / 0.191 0.338 / 0.313 11.20%
Austin Riley 15000 4100 7.55 / 9.78 0.305 / 0.264 0.392 / 0.35 15.00%
Matt Olson 13500 3500 7.11 / 9.45 0.237 / 0.261 0.342 / 0.349 12.40%
William Contreras 11400 2800 6.64 / 8.66 0.22 / 0.235 0.335 / 0.334 13.60%
Eddie Rosario 8400 2300 5.6 / 7.19 0.163 / 0.161 0.287 / 0.281 5.20%
Marcell Ozuna 9000 2600 6.43 / 8.25 0.163 / 0.219 0.294 / 0.339 12.10%
Michael Harris 11700 2800 5.94 / 7.42 0.157 / 0.208 0.304 / 0.352 NA
Vaughn Grissom 6000 2000 4.8 / 6.2 NA NA NA

Break down every ATL vs. MIA hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Neither pitcher is a gas can, but we can play just about every bat in this game. Definitely every Brave. The price that stands out is Marcell Ozuna. Way too much power for the price tag. Mildly interested in the punt price of Vaughn Grissom. He’s a raw power-speed combo who can have big games. That said, he only has 98 PAs above A-ball, so I buy the apprehension.

Optimal Plays – Everyone

Secondary Plays – Everyone

Stackability – GREEN


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: MIA Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Joey Wendle 10800 2400 6.6 / 8.3 0.112 / 0.114 0.283 / 0.272 3.00%
Miguel Rojas 8700 2300 6.61 / 8.37 0.114 / 0.109 0.3 / 0.282 2.50%
Jesus Aguilar 9900 2500 6.69 / 8.64 0.165 / 0.176 0.295 / 0.298 7.90%
JJ Bleday 6600 2300 6.27 / 8.11 NA
Charles Leblanc 6000 2500 5.58 / 7.25 11.10%
Bryan De La Cruz 6000 2100 6.23 / 7.88 0.101 / 0.143 0.278 / 0.305 7.70%
Lewin Diaz 6000 2200 5.49 / 7.08 0.199 / 0.186 0.273 / 0.276 9.00%
Jacob Stallings 7800 2100 4.7 / 6.03 0.095 / 0.097 0.254 / 0.249 3.80%
Peyton Burdick 6000 2100 4.96 / 6.4 NA NA NA

Break down every ATL vs. MIA hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

We should start with JJ Bleday, who hit 20 HRs in 367 Triple-A PAs this year at a near punt price on DK. Charles LeBlanc hit 14 in 360 and he’s a punt price on DK. Peyton Burdick hit 14 in 385 and he’s a punt price on DK. Lewin Diaz has double-dong power at a punt price on DK. Where we play Lopez, there’s more from which to choose on the Miami side than we might think. In Miami, power’s tough to come by, which is why I’m harping on the Lopez+Miami build.

Optimal Plays – Everyone but Jacob Stallings

Secondary Plays – Maybe Jacob Stallings

Stackability – GREEN

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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