MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 8/16: The Grind Down

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Tuesday, August 16 . This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


SDP vs. MIA


MLB DFS Analysis: Sean Manaea (LHP | -157)

9000 DK ( 18.00% of cap) / 9600 FD ( 27.43% of cap) / Y Salary Unavailable Y ( NA of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 18.55 Exit Velocity 90.10
PlateIQ FD Proj. 34.04 EV Percentile 69
PlateIQ Y Proj. 20.75 Barrel % 8.10%
DK Pts$ 2.06 Barrel Percentile 53
FD Pts$ 3.55 Statcast Hard% 41.10%
Y Pts$ NA Hard% Percentile 64

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MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 53.00 Games 53.00
Expected L 1.00 Expected R 8.00
xFIP L 3.37 xFIP R 3.88
K/9 L 9.65 K/9 R 9.49
BB/9 L 2.30 BB/9 R 2.66
GB/FB L 1.26 GB/FB R 1.03
HR/9 L 1.26 HR/9 R 1.35
Hard% L 29.40% Hard% R 32.50%

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Sean Manaea got off to a nice start this season, but he’s really hit the skids of late. That said, he’s been a little unlucky. His 3.94 SIERA is still quite a bit better than his 4.76 ERA, and he’s only stranded about 66% of runners that have reached so far this season. The strikeouts (24%) are still fine enough, and he gets a nice park bump going into Miami to face the lowly Marlins tonight. Miami has a lot of strikeouts (26%) available for left-handed pitchers, along with no power whatsoever (.106 ISO). If Manaea can’t find it in this spot, he’s truly snakebitten. He’s still the easy call SP1 on the early/turbo slate.

Quick Breakdown: Manaea looks good…yet again.

MLB DFS Analysis: Edward Cabrera (RHP | 132)

8800 DK ( 17.60% of cap) / 9400 FD ( 26.86% of cap) / Y Salary Unavailable Y ( NA of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 12.64 Exit Velocity 87.20
PlateIQ FD Proj. 25.18 EV Percentile 20
PlateIQ Y Proj. 14.09 Barrel % 8.50%
DK Pts$ 1.44 Barrel Percentile 57
FD Pts$ 2.68 Statcast Hard% 37.70%
Y Pts$ NA Hard% Percentile 43

See More Stats Made Simple for SDP vs. MIA : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 12.00 Games 53.00
Expected L 1.00 Expected R 8.00
xFIP L 4.65 xFIP R 4.44
K/9 L 8.26 K/9 R 11.47
BB/9 L 5.08 BB/9 R 6.29
GB/FB L 1.61 GB/FB R 1.32
HR/9 L 1.59 HR/9 R 1.11
Hard% L 28.20% Hard% R 35.60%

See More Stats Made Simple for SDP vs. MIA : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Edward Cabrera has only made 5 starts for the Marlins this season. We’ve seen plenty of strikeouts (27%), but also far too many walks (13%). The Padres have been one of the most patient lineups in baseball (11% walks), especially since Juan Soto and Josh Bell joined the party. They’re also striking out only about 20% of the time. I suppose you can always chase a pitcher with strikeout stuff like Cabrera’s in tournaments, but this is a very tough spot for a pitcher with control issues.

Quick Breakdown: GPP flier, even on a 2-game slate.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: SDP Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Jurickson Profar 4400 2900 7.18 / 9.38 0.137 / 0.163 0.325 / 0.335 3.60%
Juan Soto 6000 4200 9.99 / 13.48 0.23 / 0.276 0.403 / 0.447 13.00%
Manny Machado 5800 4400 7.99 / 10.6 0.244 / 0.229 0.365 / 0.326 11.80%
Josh Bell 4900 3100 7.4 / 9.78 0.204 / 0.192 0.365 / 0.353 7.90%
Brandon Drury 5400 3800 6.91 / 9.09 0.255 / 0.211 0.353 / 0.312 10.50%
Jake Cronenworth 4500 2900 7.14 / 9.24 0.154 / 0.18 0.338 / 0.362 6.40%
Trent Grisham 3100 2700 6.6 / 8.62 0.196 / 0.19 0.329 / 0.327 6.50%
Ha-seong Kim 4000 2400 5.94 / 7.69 0.165 / 0.147 0.338 / 0.293 NA
Jorge Alfaro 3600 2500 5.14 / 6.55 0.194 / 0.153 0.32 / 0.266 10.00%

Break down every SDP vs. MIA hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

The Padres’ 4.2 total hardly jumps off the page, but it’s pretty easy to see how things can go wrong for Cabrera in this one. We’re never dying to load up on bats in this ballpark, but Cabrera’s wide reverse split makes him susceptible to his fellow righties. Good news for Manny Machado and Brandon Drury most of all, but you’ll still want Soto, Bell, and Jake Cronenworth in stacks where you can afford them. Trent Grisham is a decent value with some power upside, as well.

Optimal Plays – Manny Machado, Juan Soto

Secondary Plays – Brandon Drury, Josh Bell, Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: MIA Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Jon Berti 5000 3200 7.03 / 9.06 0.124 / 0.092 0.325 / 0.294 3.90%
Miguel Rojas 2700 2400 6.47 / 8.22 0.114 / 0.11 0.316 / 0.296 2.60%
Garrett Cooper 2400 2300 6.86 / 8.86 0.144 / 0.163 0.328 / 0.343 10.40%
Jesus Aguilar 2500 2700 6.48 / 8.44 0.168 / 0.175 0.315 / 0.31 8.00%
JJ Bleday 2000 2200 5.35 / 6.96 NA
Nick Fortes 4300 2200 5.74 / 7.31 0.142 / 0.159 0.295 / 0.313 9.90%
Charles Leblanc 2000 2500 5.14 / 6.65 8.60%
Peyton Burdick 2000 2100 4.9 / 6.33 NA NA NA
Luke Williams 2000 2000 4.65 / 5.87 0.035 / 0.035 0.272 / 0.27 2.10%

Break down every SDP vs. MIA hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Sean Manaea should be the chalkiest pitcher on the slate, which is enough to put the Marlins in play as a stack. Nothing will actually look appealing here, but you’re playing an ownership game in GPPs. Manaea has allowed a .342 wOBA with 15 home runs to right-handed bats on the year, and guys like Jesus Aguilar and Garrett Cooper have hit for some power in the past. Jon Berti and his stolen base upside is back, as well, while you can get cheap with some combination of Miguel Rojas, Peyton Burdick, and Charles Leblanc to round things out. The Marlins’ 3.44 total is predictably unappealing, but Manaea hasn’t exactly been dominant this season.

Optimal Plays – Jon Berti, Jesus Aguilar

Secondary Plays – Garrett Cooper, Miguel Rojas, Peyton Burdick, Charles Leblanc

Stackability – ORANGE

About the Author

  • Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

  • Taylor Smith is a native Texan (required by all fellow Texans to report this at all times) and Southern California-based sports writer. He has been playing daily fantasy sports regularly since 2012, going back to the days of DraftStreet (RIP). He specializes in MLB and NBA while dabbling in a few other sports like a true degen when the other two are out of season. He has written about DFS in the past at Bang The Book, and you can find some of his previous work on SB Nation and FanRag Sports.

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