MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 8/5: The Grind Down

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Friday, August 5 . This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


MIA vs. CHC


MLB DFS Analysis: Edward Cabrera (RHP | -110)

16200 DK ( 32.40% of cap) / FD Salary Unavailable FD ( NA of cap) / 25 Y ( 0.00% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 11.09 Exit Velocity 88.40
PlateIQ FD Proj. 21.68 EV Percentile 37
PlateIQ Y Proj. 12.43 Barrel % 9.90%
DK Pts$ 0.68 Barrel Percentile 72
FD Pts$ NA Statcast Hard% 40.50%
Y Pts$ 4.97 Hard% Percentile 61

See More Stats Made Simple for MIA vs. CHC : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 10.00 Games 10.00
Expected L 3.00 Expected R 6.00
xFIP L 4.81 xFIP R 5.42
K/9 L 7.66 K/9 R 11.42
BB/9 L 4.74 BB/9 R 7.79
GB/FB L NA GB/FB R 1.00
HR/9 L 1.82 HR/9 R 1.56
Hard% L NA Hard% R 40.40%

See More Stats Made Simple for MIA vs. CHC : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Edward Cabrera has spent most of the year toiling in the minors, but he does have a K-rate nearing 23% across 10 career big-league outings. Control is a big problem for the right-hander, and one thing the Cubs actually do well is take their walks (10.2%). Cabrera’s large reverse split is also suboptimal for a matchup with a righty-heavy Cubs offense. He’s a talented pitcher, but there are a lot of red flags.

Quick Breakdown: If you’re captaining one of these pitchers, I prefer Steele.

MLB DFS Analysis: Justin Steele (LHP | -110)

15900 DK ( 31.80% of cap) / FD Salary Unavailable FD ( NA of cap) / 40 Y ( 0.00% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 12.29 Exit Velocity 87.40
PlateIQ FD Proj. 24.66 EV Percentile 23
PlateIQ Y Proj. 13.79 Barrel % 4.40%
DK Pts$ 0.77 Barrel Percentile 15
FD Pts$ NA Statcast Hard% 34.00%
Y Pts$ 3.45 Hard% Percentile 23

See More Stats Made Simple for MIA vs. CHC : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 28.00 Games 10.00
Expected L 2.00 Expected R 7.00
xFIP L 3.60 xFIP R 4.13
K/9 L 12.30 K/9 R 7.87
BB/9 L 5.88 BB/9 R 3.70
GB/FB L NA GB/FB R 1.86
HR/9 L 0.53 HR/9 R 1.26
Hard% L NA Hard% R 25.60%

See More Stats Made Simple for MIA vs. CHC : Try PlateIQ Premium!

A 21.6% K-rate is nothing special, but Justin Steele does have a respectable 52% groundball rate on the year. He’s also walking more than 10% of hitters, but these Marlins (6.7% walks) are not a patient lineup. They’re also a bit more strikeout-heavy (23.7%) than the Cubs, with a collective .088 ISO and a .261 wOBA this season against lefties. This is just a terrible offense right now, and Steele is actually slightly cheaper than Cabrera on DraftKings. He’s not great, but this is a pretty favorable spot.

Quick Breakdown: Steele looks good against a beatable offense.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: MIA Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Miguel Rojas 9600 Unavailable 7.76 / 9.76 0.128 / 0.116 0.316 / 0.289 2.50%
Garrett Cooper 7800 Unavailable 8.09 / 10.37 0.154 / 0.172 0.322 / 0.341 10.30%
Jesus Aguilar 10200 Unavailable 7.14 / 9.21 0.155 / 0.178 0.295 / 0.306 7.90%
Bryan De La Cruz 6000 Unavailable 7.02 / 8.95 0.112 / 0.166 0.285 / 0.318 7.70%
Nick Fortes 13500 Unavailable 7 / 8.88 0.146 / 0.166 0.295 / 0.323 10.30%
Peyton Burdick 6000 Unavailable 6.03 / 7.78 NA NA NA
JJ Bleday 6600 Unavailable 5.71 / 7.41 NA NA NA
Charles Leblanc 6000 Unavailable 5.65 / 7.26 NA NA 16.70%
Luke Williams 6000 Unavailable 5.45 / 6.85 0.046 / 0.043 0.263 / 0.261 1.50%

Break down every MIA vs. CHC hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Steele’s splits aren’t egregious in either direction, but his strikeout numbers have been quite a bit more impressive against his fellow lefties. The issue for the Marlins is they’re extremely beaten up and watered down these days. Jesus Aguilar and Garrett Cooper are really the only halfway decent RHBs in there, and neither even projects all that well. They’re trotting create-a-players like Payton Burdick and Charles Leblanc out there right now, for example. Not much to see here.

Optimal Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jesus Aguilar, Garrett Cooper

Stackability –


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: CHC Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Rafael Ortega 8400 Unavailable 7.69 / 10.06 0.113 / 0.149 0.284 / 0.313 5.40%
Willson Contreras 15000 Unavailable 8.11 / 10.95 0.281 / 0.191 0.376 / 0.299 10.70%
Ian Happ 11700 Unavailable 8.25 / 10.8 0.174 / 0.191 0.337 / 0.357 9.20%
Seiya Suzuki 12000 Unavailable 5.96 / 7.75 0.219 / 0.135 0.337 / 0.231 10.40%
Nico Hoerner 12600 Unavailable 6.93 / 8.82 0.121 / 0.113 0.321 / 0.315 2.50%
Patrick Wisdom 11400 Unavailable 7.34 / 9.75 0.262 / 0.237 0.343 / 0.319 15.70%
Zach McKinstry 6000 Unavailable 5.24 / 6.74 0.159 / 0.166 0.263 / 0.265 8.10%
Nick Madrigal 6000 Unavailable 5.69 / 7.14 0.071 / 0.059 0.287 / 0.286 0.70%
Christopher Morel 14400 Unavailable 6.55 / 8.5 0.184 / 0.213 0.308 / 0.34 13.70%

Break down every MIA vs. CHC hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

As mentioned, Cabrera’s a right-hander who projects to have more issues with right-handed bats. Chicago does have decent righty power between Willson Contreras, Patrick Wisdom, Seiya Suzuki and Frank Schwindel. Nico Hoerner is a fine enough hitter, while Ian Happ is, as usual, the best lefty here. Christopher Morel is a bit pricey for a guy that may hit out of the 9 hole, but that should lower his ownership a bit in GPPs.

Optimal Plays – Willson Contreras, Seiya Suzuki, Patrick Wisdom

Secondary Plays – Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, Christopher Morel, Frank Schwindel

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

About the Author

  • Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

  • Taylor Smith is a native Texan (required by all fellow Texans to report this at all times) and Southern California-based sports writer. He has been playing daily fantasy sports regularly since 2012, going back to the days of DraftStreet (RIP). He specializes in MLB and NBA while dabbling in a few other sports like a true degen when the other two are out of season. He has written about DFS in the past at Bang The Book, and you can find some of his previous work on SB Nation and FanRag Sports.

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