MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 9/23: Astros at Orioles

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Friday, September 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


HOU vs. BAL


MLB DFS Analysis: Jose Urquidy (RHP | -148)

7900 DK ( 15.80% of cap) / 8400 FD ( 24.00% of cap) / 46 Y ( 24.00% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 15.72 Exit Velocity 89.20
PlateIQ FD Proj. 30.48 EV Percentile 53
PlateIQ Y Proj. 17.59 Barrel % 9.20%
DK Pts$ 1.99 Barrel Percentile 67
FD Pts$ 3.63 Statcast Hard% 38.90%
Y Pts$ 3.82 Hard% Percentile 50

See More Stats Made Simple for HOU vs. BAL : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 47.00 Games 47.00
Expected L 7.00 Expected R 2.00
xFIP L 4.13 xFIP R 4.55
K/9 L 7.21 K/9 R 7.56
BB/9 L 1.77 BB/9 R 1.91
GB/FB L 0.86 GB/FB R 0.69
HR/9 L 0.88 HR/9 R 1.97
Hard% L 32.20% Hard% R 28.70%

See More Stats Made Simple for HOU vs. BAL : Try PlateIQ Premium!
  • Jose Urquidy is maybe the best pitcher we shouldn’t be considering.
  • Great command, but low Ks and high contact.
  • High contact and high flyballs equal a lot of HRs.

Quick Breakdown: The Orioles are good enough and this slate is stacked enough to turn us off of a mediocre pitcher.

MLB DFS Analysis: Dean Kremer (RHP | 127)

6500 DK ( 13.00% of cap) / 7700 FD ( 22.00% of cap) / 36 Y ( 22.00% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 8.89 Exit Velocity 90.30
PlateIQ FD Proj. 22.49 EV Percentile 73
PlateIQ Y Proj. 9.72 Barrel % 9.60%
DK Pts$ 1.37 Barrel Percentile 71
FD Pts$ 2.92 Statcast Hard% 42.50%
Y Pts$ 2.70 Hard% Percentile 71

See More Stats Made Simple for HOU vs. BAL : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 31.00 Games 47.00
Expected L 7.00 Expected R 2.00
xFIP L 4.44 xFIP R 5.08
K/9 L 8.49 K/9 R 5.82
BB/9 L 3.48 BB/9 R 2.58
GB/FB L 0.69 GB/FB R 0.93
HR/9 L 1.11 HR/9 R 1.62
Hard% L 31.40% Hard% R 32.60%

See More Stats Made Simple for HOU vs. BAL : Try PlateIQ Premium!
  • I don’t know who Dean Kremer is, but we’re not playing him against the Astros.

Quick Breakdown: We don’t play mediocre pitching against the Astros.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: HOU Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Jose Altuve 5700 4000 9.33 / 11.73 0.259 / 0.201 0.417 / 0.351 7.00%
Jeremy Pena 4500 3200 8.64 / 10.62 0.171 / 0.151 0.347 / 0.32 NA
Yordan Alvarez 6100 4600 11.91 / 15.02 0.279 / 0.325 0.439 / 0.477 18.50%
Alex Bregman 5100 3600 9.59 / 12.11 0.19 / 0.232 0.374 / 0.401 7.10%
Kyle Tucker 5200 4100 9.48 / 11.97 0.238 / 0.237 0.365 / 0.38 11.00%
Yulieski Gurriel 3300 2200 6.99 / 8.61 0.17 / 0.127 0.339 / 0.295 2.70%
Trey Mancini 3700 2600 8.06 / 10.01 0.151 / 0.169 0.345 / 0.358 10.00%
Christian Vazquez 3900 2000 6.84 / 8.3 0.095 / 0.082 0.328 / 0.311 3.70%
Chas McCormick 2500 2100 7.06 / 8.78 0.193 / 0.151 0.381 / 0.332 10.70%

Break down every HOU vs. BAL hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
  • I’ve analyzed Kremer about a dozen times this season and I can’t figure out who this guy is.
  • Since 2021, he has 1.42 HR/9 allowed on a 9.6% barrel rate. This season, he has 0.68 HR/9 on a 7.3% barrel rate.
  • Kremer’s 6.41 K/9 and extreme flyball tendencies, though, lead me toward playing everyone on the Astros in the hopes people are stargazing toward New York and overexposing to Coors.

Optimal Plays – Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Trey Mancini, Jeremy Pena

Secondary Plays – Everyone else

Stackability – GREEN


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: BAL Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Cedric Mullins 5200 2700 7.83 / 9.77 0.116 / 0.152 0.309 / 0.346 6.40%
Adley Rutschman 5000 3100 7.73 / 9.84 0.142 / 0.193 0.352 / 0.391 8.20%
Gunnar Henderson 3900 3300 7.51 / 9.37 10.00%
Anthony Santander 4500 2800 7.34 / 9.31 0.218 / 0.199 0.377 / 0.346 9.80%
Ryan Mountcastle 4300 2600 7.37 / 9.28 0.206 / 0.202 0.361 / 0.345 13.70%
Terrin Vavra 2000 2100 6.05 / 7.52 0.05 / 0.053 0.349 / 0.344 0.00%
Kyle Stowers 2000 2000 5.96 / 7.43 NA
Rougned Odor 2200 2100 5.71 / 7.15 0.162 / 0.164 0.316 / 0.305 7.70%
Jorge Mateo 3400 2200 5.86 / 7.17 0.159 / 0.154 0.305 / 0.299 6.00%

Break down every HOU vs. BAL hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
  • Urquidy’s power prevention issues with the 80.8% contact rate could justify playing everyone.
  • There’s power throughout this lineup, but I’d like to introduce you to Kyle Stowers, if he’s off your radar. He’s punt-priced and slugged .527 in Triple-A this season (407 PAs).
  • Jorge Mateo doesn’t have much power, but has enough speed and a green light to be a fifth man in the stack.
  • Ramon Urias is an autoplay, if he cracks the lineup.

Optimal Plays – Everyone except Terrin Vavra

Secondary Plays – Terrin Vavra

Stackability – GREEN

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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