MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 9/23: Blue Jays at Rays

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Friday, September 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


TOR vs. TBR


MLB DFS Analysis: Mitch White (RHP | 120)

7300 DK ( 14.60% of cap) / 5700 FD ( 16.29% of cap) / Y Salary Unavailable Y ( NA of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 10.79 Exit Velocity 88.00
PlateIQ FD Proj. 21.72 EV Percentile 29
PlateIQ Y Proj. 12.12 Barrel % 6.30%
DK Pts$ 1.48 Barrel Percentile 31
FD Pts$ 3.81 Statcast Hard% 34.10%
Y Pts$ NA Hard% Percentile 23

See More Stats Made Simple for TOR vs. TBR : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 20.00 Games 20.00
Expected L 5.00 Expected R 4.00
xFIP L 4.30 xFIP R 4.03
K/9 L 7.16 K/9 R 8.96
BB/9 L 3.51 BB/9 R 2.81
GB/FB L 1.38 GB/FB R 1.10
HR/9 L 0.95 HR/9 R 0.94
Hard% L 29.80% Hard% R 32.50%

See More Stats Made Simple for TOR vs. TBR : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Quick Breakdown: Not good enough, not enough volume. Wrong slate.

MLB DFS Analysis: Jeffrey Springs (LHP | -141)

8200 DK ( 16.40% of cap) / 7900 FD ( 22.57% of cap) / 40 Y ( 22.57% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 13.48 Exit Velocity 87.50
PlateIQ FD Proj. 26.79 EV Percentile 23
PlateIQ Y Proj. 14.99 Barrel % 8.10%
DK Pts$ 1.64 Barrel Percentile 53
FD Pts$ 3.39 Statcast Hard% 36.90%
Y Pts$ 3.75 Hard% Percentile 37

See More Stats Made Simple for TOR vs. TBR : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 22.00 Games 20.00
Expected L 3.00 Expected R 6.00
xFIP L 3.65 xFIP R 3.08
K/9 L 8.66 K/9 R 11.11
BB/9 L 2.27 BB/9 R 2.35
GB/FB L 1.13 GB/FB R 0.90
HR/9 L 1.65 HR/9 R 1.10
Hard% L 32.80% Hard% R 29.00%

See More Stats Made Simple for TOR vs. TBR : Try PlateIQ Premium!
  • I’ve said that I’m done playing decent pitching against the Jays.
  • Jeffrey Springs is probably just in the range of good enough consider against the Jays.
  • His pitch count’s only around 85, but we’re talking about a 3.32 SIERA, 9.64 K/9, 2.15 BB/9, and 1.04 HR/9 on a 6.3% barrel rate in a great park for pitching.
  • Only volume keeps him from being an ace because the per-inning stuff is really sexy.
  • He’s priced for the lower volume. Maybe not an FD play, but certainly a top SP2 candidate under $9k.

Quick Breakdown: If we’re not double-studding, we should be targeting Springs on DK for high exposure.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: TOR Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
George Springer 5300 3700 8.53 / 10.94 0.193 / 0.211 0.373 / 0.373 10.60%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 5300 4100 8.98 / 11.56 0.24 / 0.255 0.403 / 0.396 13.30%
Bo Bichette 5600 4300 8.04 / 10.18 0.209 / 0.195 0.376 / 0.352 9.90%
Alejandro Kirk 4500 2900 7.7 / 9.86 0.132 / 0.142 0.378 / 0.384 8.10%
Matt Chapman 4500 2900 7.77 / 10.05 0.222 / 0.221 0.364 / 0.355 13.60%
Teoscar Hernandez 4600 3000 7.5 / 9.5 0.269 / 0.199 0.396 / 0.325 13.80%
Danny Jansen 4200 2800 7.09 / 9.09 0.219 / 0.222 0.375 / 0.36 11.60%
Whit Merrifield 3300 2200 5.92 / 7.38 0.166 / 0.133 0.331 / 0.299 3.70%
Cavan Biggio 2700 2100 6.21 / 7.91 0.195 / 0.195 0.349 / 0.356 6.40%

Break down every TOR vs. TBR hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
  • There aren’t many spots on this slate to exploit, but there are enough to ignore the Jays in a bad ballpark against a control pitcher with strong power prevention.
  • I’m off of Vladimir Guerrero because of the 1B slot and price for his capped ceiling, but Matt Chapman and Teoscar Hernandez remain too cheap for their power.
  • I’m 100% off of the Jays, but those are two one-offs we can leave in our pool.

Optimal Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Chapman, Teoscar Hernandez

Stackability – ORANGE


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: TBR Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Jonathan Aranda 2600 2100 8.05 / 10.21 0.142 / 0.146 0.352 / 0.355 9.50%
Manuel Margot 4300 2500 9.26 / 11.55 0.126 / 0.127 0.367 / 0.345 4.50%
Wander Franco 4300 2900 8.08 / 10.14 0.153 / 0.14 0.38 / 0.365 4.60%
Randy Arozarena 5000 3500 9.26 / 11.7 0.221 / 0.189 0.387 / 0.352 7.80%
David Peralta 2900 2300 7.12 / 9.06 0.127 / 0.172 0.327 / 0.357 6.70%
Christian Bethancourt 2800 2000 6.78 / 8.46 0.159 / 0.186 0.336 / 0.334 12.00%
Ji-Man Choi 2600 2000 7.12 / 9.16 0.142 / 0.165 0.349 / 0.383 10.00%
Jose Siri 2200 2200 7.14 / 8.87 0.136 / 0.15 0.291 / 0.296 7.80%
Taylor Walls 2000 2100 6.12 / 7.77 0.147 / 0.158 0.307 / 0.3 5.00%

Break down every TOR vs. TBR hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
  • White isn’t good, but the Rays are kinda trashy and White has excellent power prevention, while the Jays have a strong pen.
  • A spot has to be obvious to stack in this park. This isn’t obvious.

Optimal Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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