MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 9/23: Braves at Phillies

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Friday, September 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


ATL vs. PHI


MLB DFS Analysis: Jake Odorizzi (RHP | 135)

6100 DK ( 12.20% of cap) / 7100 FD ( 20.29% of cap) / 29 Y ( 20.29% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 11.84 Exit Velocity 88.80
PlateIQ FD Proj. 24.84 EV Percentile 44
PlateIQ Y Proj. 13.15 Barrel % 8.00%
DK Pts$ 1.94 Barrel Percentile 52
FD Pts$ 3.50 Statcast Hard% 36.40%
Y Pts$ 4.53 Hard% Percentile 34

See More Stats Made Simple for ATL vs. PHI : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 42.00 Games 42.00
Expected L 4.00 Expected R 5.00
xFIP L 5.08 xFIP R 4.38
K/9 L 7.38 K/9 R 7.50
BB/9 L 3.74 BB/9 R 1.94
GB/FB L 0.71 GB/FB R 0.81
HR/9 L 1.12 HR/9 R 1.41
Hard% L 27.50% Hard% R 29.40%

See More Stats Made Simple for ATL vs. PHI : Try PlateIQ Premium!
  • There are 12 pitchers on this slate with a SIERA under 4.00 since 2021, we’re not playing Jake Odofrigginrizzi.

Quick Breakdown: Higher contact, flyball pitcher in a home park.

MLB DFS Analysis: Aaron Nola (RHP | -160)

9300 DK ( 18.60% of cap) / 10300 FD ( 29.43% of cap) / 44 Y ( 29.43% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 23.79 Exit Velocity 88.30
PlateIQ FD Proj. 43.13 EV Percentile 35
PlateIQ Y Proj. 25.96 Barrel % 7.20%
DK Pts$ 2.56 Barrel Percentile 43
FD Pts$ 4.19 Statcast Hard% 34.50%
Y Pts$ 5.90 Hard% Percentile 24

See More Stats Made Simple for ATL vs. PHI : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 61.00 Games 42.00
Expected L 4.00 Expected R 5.00
xFIP L 3.14 xFIP R 3.07
K/9 L 10.86 K/9 R 10.38
BB/9 L 1.66 BB/9 R 1.52
GB/FB L 0.96 GB/FB R 1.22
HR/9 L 1.08 HR/9 R 1.08
Hard% L 32.80% Hard% R 29.90%

See More Stats Made Simple for ATL vs. PHI : Try PlateIQ Premium!
  • Aaron Nola is in the top tier of aces on this slate.
  • Double-digit K/9, 1.26 BB/9, and under 1.00 HR/9.
  • The Braves are a terrible matchup, but it’s on par with the Red Sox facing Gerrit Cole.
  • Cole is a better pitcher, but not by much, while Nola has the far better striekout matchup.

Quick Breakdown: It’s too early to tell where Nola lies, as I’m gonna lean heavily on the fine-tuned projections to dictate what I do here. But there’s not going to be a reason to fade him.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: ATL Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Ronald Acuna 5800 3800 8.75 / 10.97 0.224 / 0.212 0.4 / 0.367 15.80%
Dansby Swanson 5100 3500 7.38 / 9.19 0.215 / 0.194 0.378 / 0.346 11.00%
Austin Riley 5500 3700 7.27 / 9.14 0.298 / 0.239 0.432 / 0.358 14.80%
Matt Olson 4800 2800 7.58 / 9.63 0.22 / 0.243 0.374 / 0.381 12.50%
Travis d’Arnaud 4400 2800 6.75 / 8.36 0.201 / 0.199 0.384 / 0.37 7.80%
Michael Harris 5200 3600 7.66 / 9.35 0.142 / 0.223 0.346 / 0.418 NA
Eddie Rosario 2700 2100 5.77 / 7.13 0.151 / 0.147 0.322 / 0.304 5.80%
Robbie Grossman 2500 2400 5.9 / 7.35 0.167 / 0.142 0.384 / 0.327 6.00%
Vaughn Grissom 4000 3100 6.01 / 7.29 7.10%

Break down every ATL vs. PHI hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
  • If Nola had a home run or flyball issue, we could hunt for a singular dong, but his command and power prevention are on point right now.

Optimal Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: PHI Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Kyle Schwarber 5100 3500 10.08 / 12.99 0.256 / 0.31 0.366 / 0.4 19.00%
Rhys Hoskins 4700 3100 8.82 / 11.36 0.291 / 0.242 0.415 / 0.355 13.80%
Bryce Harper 5500 3900 10.27 / 13.09 0.256 / 0.296 0.421 / 0.44 16.20%
J.T. Realmuto 5400 3400 8.54 / 10.81 0.209 / 0.214 0.385 / 0.371 10.00%
Alec Bohm 3900 2700 6.84 / 8.57 0.161 / 0.107 0.378 / 0.302 6.70%
Bryson Stott 2900 2200 6.52 / 8.15 0.136 / 0.117 0.344 / 0.308 4.20%
Jean Segura 4100 2800 6.89 / 8.59 0.172 / 0.116 0.37 / 0.311 5.60%
Nick Maton 3000 2100 7.03 / 8.87 0.201 / 0.225 0.362 / 0.377 6.80%
Matt Vierling 2000 2300 6.14 / 7.58 0.161 / 0.129 0.345 / 0.316 NA

Break down every ATL vs. PHI hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
  • Odorizzi’s 0.76 GB:FB ratio since 2021 should have us licking our chops, despite the modest 1.27 HR/9.
  • This is a home run ballpark.
  • The Phillies have a lot of power.
  • Definitely play everyone.

Optimal Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto (DK)

Secondary Plays – Everyone else

Stackability – BLUE

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

New to DFS?

Be sure to click through our links and use our exclusive promo codes to receive the industry's best sign-up bonuses, including free access to our premium content.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).