MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 9/23: Brewers at Reds

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Friday, September 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


MIL vs. CIN


MLB DFS Analysis: Eric Lauer (LHP | -174)

9400 DK ( 18.80% of cap) / 8900 FD ( 25.43% of cap) / Y Salary Unavailable Y ( NA of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 16.31 Exit Velocity 89.40
PlateIQ FD Proj. 31.39 EV Percentile 57
PlateIQ Y Proj. 17.85 Barrel % 8.30%
DK Pts$ 1.74 Barrel Percentile 56
FD Pts$ 3.53 Statcast Hard% 38.20%
Y Pts$ NA Hard% Percentile 45

See More Stats Made Simple for MIL vs. CIN : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 46.00 Games 46.00
Expected L 0.00 Expected R 9.00
xFIP L 4.31 xFIP R 4.19
K/9 L 7.62 K/9 R 8.97
BB/9 L 4.33 BB/9 R 2.89
GB/FB L 1.47 GB/FB R 0.69
HR/9 L 0.69 HR/9 R 1.66
Hard% L 27.20% Hard% R 37.80%

See More Stats Made Simple for MIL vs. CIN : Try PlateIQ Premium!
  • Eric Lauer is a fine pitcher, but he has power prevention issues and this game is in Cincinnati.

Quick Breakdown: 1.68 HR/9 in the Great American Ball Park scares the crap out of me.

MLB DFS Analysis: Mike Minor (LHP | 147)

6500 DK ( 13.00% of cap) / 6200 FD ( 17.71% of cap) / Y Salary Unavailable Y ( NA of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 11.45 Exit Velocity 88.40
PlateIQ FD Proj. 24.51 EV Percentile 37
PlateIQ Y Proj. 12.64 Barrel % 8.90%
DK Pts$ 1.76 Barrel Percentile 63
FD Pts$ 3.95 Statcast Hard% 35.40%
Y Pts$ NA Hard% Percentile 29

See More Stats Made Simple for MIL vs. CIN : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 47.00 Games 46.00
Expected L 0.00 Expected R 9.00
xFIP L 3.79 xFIP R 4.86
K/9 L 8.50 K/9 R 7.75
BB/9 L 1.70 BB/9 R 3.10
GB/FB L 1.17 GB/FB R 0.80
HR/9 L 1.13 HR/9 R 1.89
Hard% L 29.60% Hard% R 30.40%

See More Stats Made Simple for MIL vs. CIN : Try PlateIQ Premium!
  • Mike Minor is really bad now.
  • He’s always had power prevention issues, but he also had K stuff. Now, his contact rate is up to 82.0% and his K/9 is down to 6.98, so his HR/9 has ballooned up to 2.20.

Quick Breakdown: 2.20 HR/9 in the Great American Ball Park is even worse.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: MIL Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Mike Brosseau 2000 2200 9.78 / 12.49 0.194 / 0.181 0.36 / 0.344 7.00%
Willy Adames 5700 3700 11.3 / 14.59 0.244 / 0.265 0.373 / 0.376 12.70%
Christian Yelich 5100 3300 10.06 / 12.9 0.148 / 0.183 0.357 / 0.392 8.00%
Hunter Renfroe 4400 2400 10.73 / 13.94 0.266 / 0.271 0.377 / 0.358 12.90%
Andrew McCutchen 3900 2700 9.43 / 12.24 0.242 / 0.181 0.371 / 0.309 8.70%
Keston Hiura 2800 2200 9.47 / 12.12 0.2 / 0.272 0.34 / 0.395 15.20%
Luis Urias 3800 2500 8.84 / 11.3 0.186 / 0.197 0.361 / 0.375 8.70%
Victor Caratini 2700 2000 7.55 / 9.6 0.169 / 0.17 0.332 / 0.343 6.90%
Tyrone Taylor 2300 2600 8.15 / 10.33 0.216 / 0.23 0.343 / 0.348 9.00%

Break down every MIL vs. CIN hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
  • Play everyone.
  • Minor is an extreme flyballer with no K stuff. The Brewers have a lot of power that pitchers only really combat with Ks.
  • This is one of the best home run parks in the game.

Optimal Plays – Everyone

Secondary Plays – Everyone

Stackability – BLUE


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: CIN Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Jonathan India 5200 2800 9.33 / 11.83 0.145 / 0.163 0.361 / 0.372 7.50%
Spencer Steer 3000 2200 7.09 / 9.01 NA
Kyle Farmer 4600 2900 7.26 / 9.16 0.196 / 0.107 0.377 / 0.267 4.30%
Aristides Aquino 3300 2100 7.97 / 10.3 0.184 / 0.225 0.303 / 0.318 11.00%
Donovan Solano 3500 2500 7.82 / 9.84 0.142 / 0.118 0.369 / 0.345 6.80%
Stuart Fairchild 2100 2600 7.45 / 9.53 0.216 / 0.226 0.34 / 0.348 10.20%
Matt Reynolds 3200 2000 5.7 / 7.31 0.12 / 0.107 0.306 / 0.265 3.30%
Jose Barrero 2000 2100 5.43 / 6.82 0.147 / 0.101 0.288 / 0.231 NA
Chuckie Robinson 2200 2000 5.88 / 7.32 NA

Break down every MIL vs. CIN hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
  • This lineup is gross, but Aristides Aquino in a moderate strikeout spot in this ballpark has ceiling potential.
  • Jonathan India is the next bat we target, as the best bat in the lineup.
  • After those two, it gets really rough really fast, so we can secondary them on DK with the two-man stack or just plug a third guy in on FD wherever we need the position filled.

Optimal Plays – Aristides Aquino, Jonathan India

Secondary Plays – Everyone else

Stackability – YELLOW

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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