MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 9/23: Guardians at Rangers

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Friday, September 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


CLE vs. TEX


MLB DFS Analysis: Cody Morris (RHP | 109)

5400 DK ( 10.80% of cap) / 7800 FD ( 22.29% of cap) / 33 Y ( 22.29% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 13.86 Exit Velocity NA
PlateIQ FD Proj. 25.77 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 15.48 Barrel % NA
DK Pts$ 2.57 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 3.30 Statcast Hard% NA
Y Pts$ 4.69 Hard% Percentile NA

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MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games NA Games NA
Expected L 6.00 Expected R 3.00
xFIP L NA xFIP R NA
K/9 L NA K/9 R NA
BB/9 L NA BB/9 R NA
GB/FB L NA GB/FB R NA
HR/9 L NA HR/9 R NA
Hard% L NA Hard% R NA

See More Stats Made Simple for CLE vs. TEX : Try PlateIQ Premium!
  • Cody Morris is projected for 74 pitches.
  • He sucks anyway, so it’s doesn’t matter.

Quick Breakdown: Massive K stuff, but the control is not MLB-ready.

MLB DFS Analysis: Jon Gray (RHP | -128)

8800 DK ( 17.60% of cap) / 8800 FD ( 25.14% of cap) / 41 Y ( 25.14% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 10.75 Exit Velocity 88.60
PlateIQ FD Proj. 23.69 EV Percentile 39
PlateIQ Y Proj. 11.77 Barrel % 6.60%
DK Pts$ 1.22 Barrel Percentile 35
FD Pts$ 2.69 Statcast Hard% 37.70%
Y Pts$ 2.87 Hard% Percentile 42

See More Stats Made Simple for CLE vs. TEX : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 50.00 Games NA
Expected L 6.00 Expected R 3.00
xFIP L 4.23 xFIP R 3.12
K/9 L 8.71 K/9 R 10.87
BB/9 L 3.86 BB/9 R 2.52
GB/FB L 1.46 GB/FB R 1.31
HR/9 L 1.00 HR/9 R 1.30
Hard% L 33.70% Hard% R 32.10%

See More Stats Made Simple for CLE vs. TEX : Try PlateIQ Premium!
  • Jon Gray is really good now, but the Guards don’t strike out.

Quick Breakdown: There’s too much strong pitching in better spots.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: CLE Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Steven Kwan 4700 3400 9.19 / 11.36 0.037 / 0.083 0.336 / 0.395 1.30%
Amed Rosario 4700 3100 7.69 / 9.42 0.159 / 0.121 0.362 / 0.317 3.80%
Jose Ramirez 5800 4300 9.93 / 12.61 0.235 / 0.264 0.382 / 0.406 8.70%
Josh Naylor 4500 3000 8.41 / 10.59 0.176 / 0.244 0.344 / 0.385 8.10%
Andres Gimenez 4900 3100 8.82 / 10.88 0.143 / 0.162 0.376 / 0.384 5.60%
Oscar Gonzalez 4100 2600 7.18 / 8.77 0.161 / 0.156 0.365 / 0.358 7.20%
Will Brennan 2000 2200 5.59 / 7.13 NA NA NA
Luke Maile 2300 2000 5.5 / 6.87 0.077 / 0.084 0.311 / 0.305 5.70%
Myles Straw 2100 2600 6.12 / 7.47 0.053 / 0.052 0.324 / 0.321 1.00%

Break down every CLE vs. TEX hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
  • Gray is pitching really well. His GB rate is up, his K/9 is way up, his BB/9 is down, and his power prevention’s been strong.
  • Hard to say to avoid Gray and the Guards, but Gray lacks K upside just as the Guards lack power.
  • Jose Ramirez is more than fine. He’s just expensive.

Optimal Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Ramirez

Stackability – ORANGE


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: TEX Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Marcus Semien 4800 3700 8.89 / 11.4 0.193 / 0.202 0.354 / 0.343 8.20%
Corey Seager 4900 3800 8.52 / 11.09 0.239 / 0.212 0.374 / 0.356 11.20%
Nate Lowe 4100 3500 8.36 / 10.71 0.204 / 0.191 0.397 / 0.374 NA
Adolis Garcia 4700 3500 8.04 / 10.3 0.202 / 0.21 0.329 / 0.325 11.90%
Jonah Heim 3500 2100 6.66 / 8.66 0.206 / 0.161 0.35 / 0.303 6.40%
Josh Jung 2300 2600 6.88 / 8.72 11.50%
Josh Smith 2000 2200 5.83 / 7.51 0.157 / 0.103 0.337 / 0.287 NA
Kole Calhoun 2000 2000 6 / 7.66 0.162 / 0.151 0.319 / 0.301 8.90%
Leody Taveras 2200 2300 6.21 / 7.73 0.109 / 0.121 0.318 / 0.315 5.00%

Break down every CLE vs. TEX hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
  • The Rangers are mash-or-crash and this is a mash-or-crash spot.
  • Morris is a strikeout machine, but he’ll walk a lot of guys for a while.
  • This is enough to jam in the Rangers mini-stacks: Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Nate Lowe. If full-stacking, we can play everyone at low exposure.

Optimal Plays – Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Nate Lowe

Secondary Plays – Everyone else

Stackability – GREEN

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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