MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 9/23: Nationals at Marlins

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Friday, September 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


WAS vs. MIA


MLB DFS Analysis: Josiah Gray (RHP | 110)

7900 DK ( 15.80% of cap) / 7600 FD ( 21.71% of cap) / Y Salary Unavailable Y ( NA of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 17.47 Exit Velocity 87.60
PlateIQ FD Proj. 31.95 EV Percentile 24
PlateIQ Y Proj. 19.30 Barrel % 11.60%
DK Pts$ 2.21 Barrel Percentile 82
FD Pts$ 4.20 Statcast Hard% 36.30%
Y Pts$ NA Hard% Percentile 34

See More Stats Made Simple for WAS vs. MIA : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 39.00 Games 39.00
Expected L 2.00 Expected R 7.00
xFIP L 5.71 xFIP R 3.92
K/9 L 9.61 K/9 R 9.88
BB/9 L 6.14 BB/9 R 2.72
GB/FB L 0.44 GB/FB R 0.79
HR/9 L 3.07 HR/9 R 1.96
Hard% L 33.30% Hard% R 31.10%

See More Stats Made Simple for WAS vs. MIA : Try PlateIQ Premium!
  • I trash Josiah Gray a lot, but he’s the ace of this microslate.
  • The K stuff is electric and he gets to pitch in this extreme pitchers’ park, neutralizing his Achilles’ heel: The long ball.

Quick Breakdown: With Miami and Pittsburgh hosting games on a Cincinnati slate, we should be nabbing our pitching from those two pitchers’ parks. Gray is the best pitcher of the four.

MLB DFS Analysis: Braxton Garrett (LHP | -128)

8600 DK ( 17.20% of cap) / 7300 FD ( 20.86% of cap) / Y Salary Unavailable Y ( NA of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 16.71 Exit Velocity 88.60
PlateIQ FD Proj. 32.10 EV Percentile 39
PlateIQ Y Proj. 18.10 Barrel % 7.10%
DK Pts$ 1.94 Barrel Percentile 41
FD Pts$ 4.40 Statcast Hard% 36.50%
Y Pts$ NA Hard% Percentile 35

See More Stats Made Simple for WAS vs. MIA : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 21.00 Games 39.00
Expected L 2.00 Expected R 7.00
xFIP L 2.80 xFIP R 4.23
K/9 L 9.93 K/9 R 8.62
BB/9 L 2.79 BB/9 R 3.45
GB/FB L 4.00 GB/FB R 1.16
HR/9 L 0.31 HR/9 R 1.15
Hard% L 22.70% Hard% R 29.80%

See More Stats Made Simple for WAS vs. MIA : Try PlateIQ Premium!
  • On FD, Braxton Garrett is the prime pivot on the woeful slate for pitching.
  • His 3.48 SIERA is the only one on the slate under 4.15, his 9.20 K/9 is the only one over 8.60 other than Gray, and his 2.33 BB/9 leads the slate with his 0.98 HR/9.
  • There’s a great case for Garrett as the ace of the slate, but Gray has a K ceiling that no one has and Gray has the slightly better matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Garrett is the best pitcher on the slate, but Gray has the sexier ceiling.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: WAS Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Lane Thomas 3400 2700 8.58 / 10.8 0.163 / 0.16 0.328 / 0.321 7.00%
Alex Call 2400 2400 7.29 / 9.19 0.09 / 0.11 0.31 / 0.31 NA
Joey Meneses 5400 3300 8.51 / 10.57 10.30%
Luke Voit 3400 2900 8.24 / 10.61 0.167 / 0.228 0.328 / 0.361 15.40%
Ildemaro Vargas 2500 2200 6.52 / 8.06 0.121 / 0.091 0.306 / 0.285 2.40%
Luis Garcia 3600 3000 6.11 / 7.36 0.121 / 0.143 0.321 / 0.342 6.30%
Riley Adams 2100 2200 6.82 / 8.6 0.151 / 0.177 0.307 / 0.332 12.00%
Victor Robles 2000 2100 7.13 / 8.78 0.126 / 0.107 0.323 / 0.287 2.90%
C.J. Abrams 2100 2100 5.91 / 7.14 0.099 / 0.112 0.282 / 0.301 2.50%

Break down every WAS vs. MIA hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
  • Luke Voit against a lefty is fine. His power is huge.
  • Joey Meneses is fine.
  • The problem here is that we don’t have to touch this pitcher in this ballpark with Cincinnati on the slate and two exploitable pitchers in Pittsburgh.

Optimal Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Luke Voit, Joey Meneses

Stackability – ORANGE


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: MIA Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Jon Berti 5600 2700 8.08 / 10.35 0.143 / 0.113 0.343 / 0.316 4.80%
Miguel Rojas 2800 2200 7.17 / 9.07 0.119 / 0.118 0.319 / 0.309 2.50%
Charles Leblanc 2900 2100 6.86 / 8.65 10.00%
Garrett Cooper 3100 2600 7.82 / 10.07 0.128 / 0.149 0.349 / 0.366 10.80%
JJ Bleday 2500 2200 7.68 / 10.22 NA
Bryan De La Cruz 2400 2700 7.3 / 9.24 0.169 / 0.203 0.331 / 0.353 8.80%
Jacob Stallings 2800 2100 5.19 / 6.62 0.053 / 0.063 0.292 / 0.282 4.10%
Jordan Groshans 2300 2400 5.55 / 7.17 NA NA NA
Lewin Diaz 2200 2200 5.94 / 7.66 0.175 / 0.146 0.31 / 0.291 8.30%

Break down every WAS vs. MIA hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
  • On DK, we play Gray. On FD, we can play Garrett and one-off the power bats from Miami.
  • Garrett Cooper, Charles LeBlanc, JJ Bleday, Lewin Diaz, Bryan De La Cruz are all higher power bats who could hit one out.
  • Not stacking here because it’s really hard to get multiple dongs in this park.

Optimal Plays – Garrett Cooper

Secondary Plays – Charles LeBlanc, JJ Bleday, Lewin Diaz, Bryan De La Cruz

Stackability – YELLOW

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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