MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 9/23: Red Sox at Yankees

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Friday, September 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


BOS vs. NYY


MLB DFS Analysis: Rich Hill (LHP | 192)

6300 DK ( 12.60% of cap) / 6500 FD ( 18.57% of cap) / 34 Y ( 18.57% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 9.25 Exit Velocity 88.30
PlateIQ FD Proj. 20.40 EV Percentile 35
PlateIQ Y Proj. 10.35 Barrel % 8.50%
DK Pts$ 1.47 Barrel Percentile 58
FD Pts$ 3.14 Statcast Hard% 34.80%
Y Pts$ 3.04 Hard% Percentile 26

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MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 54.00 Games 54.00
Expected L 1.00 Expected R 8.00
xFIP L 4.63 xFIP R 4.45
K/9 L 9.05 K/9 R 7.87
BB/9 L 4.04 BB/9 R 2.70
GB/FB L 0.95 GB/FB R 0.92
HR/9 L 0.49 HR/9 R 1.28
Hard% L 27.30% Hard% R 31.70%

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Quick Breakdown: Rich Hill isn’t very good anymore and has a short leash. Also, the Yankees.

MLB DFS Analysis: Gerrit Cole (RHP | -227)

10500 DK ( 21.00% of cap) / 10600 FD ( 30.29% of cap) / 51 Y ( 30.29% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 23.54 Exit Velocity 89.00
PlateIQ FD Proj. 41.21 EV Percentile 47
PlateIQ Y Proj. 25.95 Barrel % 9.40%
DK Pts$ 2.24 Barrel Percentile 69
FD Pts$ 3.89 Statcast Hard% 38.80%
Y Pts$ 5.09 Hard% Percentile 50

See More Stats Made Simple for BOS vs. NYY : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 60.00 Games 54.00
Expected L 2.00 Expected R 7.00
xFIP L 2.80 xFIP R 2.91
K/9 L 13.23 K/9 R 10.72
BB/9 L 2.62 BB/9 R 1.81
GB/FB L 0.71 GB/FB R 1.36
HR/9 L 1.53 HR/9 R 1.13
Hard% L 33.60% Hard% R 28.90%

See More Stats Made Simple for BOS vs. NYY : Try PlateIQ Premium!
  • Gerrit Cole might be the best pitcher on the slate, but that depends on the lighting and the angle. We’re just concerned about this slate, though.
  • This isn’t too early to mention that Carlos Rodon has a sweet matchup with the Diamondbacks, so I’m hard-pressed to say we should play Cole or Nola over him. Not to mention, Shohei Ohtani has a decent matchup in Minnesota, while Chris Bassitt gets to face the A’s in Oakland.
  • Cole is a fantastic deep dive because of where his stats rank on any slate, but the data point on which I’m fixated is the Red Sox’ active roster coming into Friday with a 110 wRC+ against righties. These things generally don’t matter with Cole, but where others are too the moon, we can see where his ceiling is more capped than usual.

Quick Breakdown: Excellent pitcher. Nothing wrong with playing him, but there are slightly lesser pitchers with far better matchups in better ballparks.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: BOS Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Tommy Pham 4800 3200 7.06 / 9.01 0.169 / 0.14 0.365 / 0.327 9.10%
Rafael Devers 5700 3800 8.43 / 10.73 0.231 / 0.283 0.38 / 0.434 13.40%
Xander Bogaerts 5400 3700 7.05 / 8.9 0.195 / 0.18 0.413 / 0.374 8.20%
Alex Verdugo 4200 2700 5.99 / 7.54 0.123 / 0.133 0.349 / 0.355 6.50%
J.D. Martinez 4400 2600 6.45 / 8.22 0.233 / 0.185 0.405 / 0.349 12.40%
Triston Casas 2300 2200 4.73 / 6.09 NA NA 3.40%
Enrique Hernandez 3100 2100 5.26 / 6.7 0.236 / 0.167 0.372 / 0.292 7.40%
Yu Chang 2400 2000 4.41 / 5.51 0.046 / 0.085 0.285 / 0.314 NA
Reese McGuire 2500 2000 3.97 / 4.87 0.044 / 0.065 0.294 / 0.302 2.60%

Break down every BOS vs. NYY hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
  • Cole’s 1.43 HR/9 in this ballpark doesn’t signal a blowup, but there’s signal here.
  • Coupled with his 9.1% barrel rate, we can pay up to one-off Rafael Devers.
  • Otherwise, there isn’t big power we can trust. J.D. Martinez is a better strikeout candidate, while Tommy Pham and Xander Bogaerts don’t have the big power we want.
  • The Yankees have a truly great bullpen.

Optimal Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Rafael Devers

Stackability – ORANGE


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: NYY Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Aaron Judge 6200 5400 12.79 / 16.59 0.358 / 0.378 0.459 / 0.464 22.10%
Anthony Rizzo 5100 3600 9.98 / 12.87 0.265 / 0.242 0.392 / 0.376 9.20%
Gleyber Torres 4100 3500 8.8 / 11.19 0.231 / 0.178 0.365 / 0.311 9.30%
Josh Donaldson 4400 3000 8.79 / 11.44 0.227 / 0.194 0.367 / 0.324 14.20%
Giancarlo Stanton 5100 3300 9.64 / 12.52 0.269 / 0.292 0.37 / 0.378 17.20%
Oswaldo Cabrera 2800 2800 7.84 / 9.89 0.174 / 0.166 0.335 / 0.32 6.40%
Harrison Bader 2600 2900 7.73 / 9.71 0.158 / 0.152 0.327 / 0.315 5.70%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 3100 2700 6.2 / 7.57 0.056 / 0.057 0.319 / 0.31 1.50%
Jose Trevino 3000 2200 6.29 / 7.8 0.183 / 0.145 0.336 / 0.291 4.70%

Break down every BOS vs. NYY hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
  • Hill isn’t a gas can, yet. He’s effective. But Aaron Judge against a sub-par junkballing lefty is a recipe for #61.
  • Judge could be 40% owned, so we have to full-stack if we’re playing Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo lefty-lefty, and everyone else are all good plays.
  • The price to stack is high here, so we’ll have to spend down at pitcher and with our secondary stack, and that could lead to a chalky build. For that reason, I might be out on the Yankees for single-entry.
  • That said, Coors is on the slate, so who knows?
  • I should repeat: Hill isn’t bad. It’s just stacking is the way to combat Judge’s ownership, if we must play Judge.

Optimal Plays – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Everyone else

Stackability – GREEN

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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