MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 9/23: The Grind Down

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Friday, September 23. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


CHC vs. PIT


MLB DFS Analysis: Javier Assad (RHP | 102)

7200 DK ( 14.40% of cap) / 6300 FD ( 18.00% of cap) / Y Salary Unavailable Y ( NA of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 11.18 Exit Velocity NA
PlateIQ FD Proj. 23.30 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 12.61 Barrel % NA
DK Pts$ 1.55 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 3.70 Statcast Hard% NA
Y Pts$ NA Hard% Percentile NA

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MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games NA Games NA
Expected L 7.00 Expected R 2.00
xFIP L NA xFIP R NA
K/9 L NA K/9 R NA
BB/9 L NA BB/9 R NA
GB/FB L NA GB/FB R NA
HR/9 L NA HR/9 R NA
Hard% L NA Hard% R NA

See More Stats Made Simple for CHC vs. PIT : Try PlateIQ Premium!
  • Only 23.0 MLB IP from Javier Assad, but the 5.40 BB/9 sticks out like a sore thumb, especially after giving up 3.52 in Double-A this year.
  • This is a phenomenal matchup and he has some K stuff, so you’re totally allowed to go here on DK. Not like we’re stacking Pirates and this is a microslate.

Quick Breakdown: Good Ks, shaky command, but decent power prevention. Probably enough to combat the Pirates, but we should feel icky about it.

MLB DFS Analysis: Bryse Wilson (RHP | -121)

5700 DK ( 11.40% of cap) / 6600 FD ( 18.86% of cap) / Y Salary Unavailable Y ( NA of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 10.27 Exit Velocity 90.10
PlateIQ FD Proj. 23.43 EV Percentile 70
PlateIQ Y Proj. 11.49 Barrel % 8.70%
DK Pts$ 1.80 Barrel Percentile 61
FD Pts$ 3.55 Statcast Hard% 43.10%
Y Pts$ NA Hard% Percentile 74

See More Stats Made Simple for CHC vs. PIT : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 34.00 Games NA
Expected L 7.00 Expected R 2.00
xFIP L 5.31 xFIP R 4.24
K/9 L 5.59 K/9 R 6.14
BB/9 L 3.16 BB/9 R 1.84
GB/FB L 0.90 GB/FB R 1.42
HR/9 L 2.11 HR/9 R 1.43
Hard% L 38.20% Hard% R 34.80%

See More Stats Made Simple for CHC vs. PIT : Try PlateIQ Premium!
  • The Cubs strike out a ton, but Bryse Wilson only has 5.87 K/9 since 2021, along with 1.77 HR/9.
  • The Cubs strike out a ton, but they have some sneaky power to exploit Wilson.

Quick Breakdown: Wilson is one of the worst pitchers in baseball.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: CHC Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Zach McKinstry 2700 2200 9.22 / 11.42 0.115 / 0.138 0.337 / 0.347 5.70%
Ian Happ 4300 2700 10.72 / 13.47 0.153 / 0.179 0.365 / 0.391 8.80%
Franmil Reyes 2500 2200 8.72 / 11.02 0.209 / 0.198 0.343 / 0.323 14.30%
David Bote 2100 2200 7.83 / 9.86 0.175 / 0.159 0.334 / 0.295 9.30%
Esteban Quiroz 2000 2000 6.78 / 8.66 NA NA NA
P.J. Higgins 2600 2100 7.45 / 9.12 0.079 / 0.116 0.31 / 0.352 NA
Alfonso Rivas 2300 2100 7.14 / 8.94 0.079 / 0.082 0.31 / 0.32 3.90%
Nelson Velazquez 2100 2100 6.54 / 8.24 0.267 / 0.214 0.351 / 0.289 12.60%
Christopher Morel 4000 2200 7.17 / 8.87 0.151 / 0.177 0.33 / 0.338 12.70%

Break down every CHC vs. PIT hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
  • We can take this Quad-A lineup to the felt. Not playing everyone, but there’s enough power to stack against Wilson.
  • Franmil Reyes, Ian Happ, Christopher Morel, Nelson Velazquez, David Bote. There’s the stack.
  • They might not catch the ownership for it to be necessary to full-stack, so if you’re only comfortable with the mini-stack, that’s fine. My discomfort only lies in the ballpark.

Optimal Plays – Franmil Reyes, Ian Happ, Christopher Morel

Secondary Plays – Nelson Velazquez, David Bote

Stackability – GREEN


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: PIT Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Oneil Cruz 4900 3000 9.37 / 11.9 0.207 / 0.258 0.334 / 0.377 17.10%
Bryan Reynolds 5000 2500 9.49 / 12.13 0.161 / 0.183 0.374 / 0.387 8.90%
Rodolfo Castro 2800 2700 7.17 / 9.19 0.207 / 0.146 0.348 / 0.291 8.00%
Ben Gamel 2600 2200 8.5 / 10.94 0.128 / 0.156 0.332 / 0.365 7.00%
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3900 2800 8.03 / 10.26 0.147 / 0.111 0.36 / 0.315 4.60%
Cal Mitchell 2000 2100 7.06 / 8.93 0.164 / 0.144 0.34 / 0.33 NA
Michael Chavis 2400 2100 6.6 / 8.28 0.18 / 0.152 0.329 / 0.291 7.10%
Jack Suwinski 2100 2100 6.4 / 8.18 0.17 / 0.185 0.306 / 0.319 10.90%
Tyler Heineman 2000 2000 5.81 / 7.13 0.043 / 0.054 0.29 / 0.307 0.00%

Break down every CHC vs. PIT hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium
  • Oneil Cruz just crushes baseballs. Against a pitcher with bad control, he can catch a forced strike (meatball) from Assad and go yard.
  • Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Rodolfo Castro are all fine for mini-stacks, but — again — we shouldn’t ignore the ballpark.

Optimal Plays – Oneil Cruz

Secondary Plays – Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Rodolfo Castro, Ke’Bryan Hayes

Stackability – YELLOW

About the Author

  • Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

  • Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player, while contributing to RotoGrinders and FanGraphs, as well as serving as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, currently playing high-stakes MLB and NFL cash games and GPPs. He is a Chicago Tribune and SB Nation alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University.

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