MLB DFS Game-by-Game Projections, Picks, and Analysis 9/29: The Grind Down

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Thursday, September 29 . This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

This DFS content is a part of our Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access MLB Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, MLB DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


MLB DFS Analysis: Jonathan Heasley (RHP | 112)

7100 DK ( 14.20% of cap) / 7200 FD ( 20.57% of cap) / 31 Y ( 20.57% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 10.90 Exit Velocity NA
PlateIQ FD Proj. 22.90 EV Percentile NA
PlateIQ Y Proj. 12.36 Barrel % NA
DK Pts$ 1.54 Barrel Percentile NA
FD Pts$ 3.18 Statcast Hard% NA
Y Pts$ 3.99 Hard% Percentile NA

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MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games NA Games NA
Expected L 5.00 Expected R 4.00
K/9 L NA K/9 R NA
Hard% L NA Hard% R NA

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Jonathan Heasley has pitched pretty well of late, which is a surprising turn of events for a guy with a 5.29 SIERA on the season. His walk rate (10.6%) is almost as high as his K-rate (15.6%), but he draws another elite matchup today at Detroit. We know how bad the Tigers are, especially against right-handed pitching. It’s a test of terribleness on both sides, really. Heasley is cheap enough to plug into some GPP lineups at a low-$7,000s salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but I certainly wouldn’t be hinging my entire afternoon on him, either.

Quick Breakdown: Bad pitcher in a great spot. Playable, but not a core play.

MLB DFS Analysis: Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP | -132)

7300 DK ( 14.60% of cap) / 8300 FD ( 23.71% of cap) / 37 Y ( 23.71% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Proj. Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 12.18 Exit Velocity 87.00
PlateIQ FD Proj. 27.38 EV Percentile 19
PlateIQ Y Proj. 13.27 Barrel % 7.00%
DK Pts$ 1.67 Barrel Percentile 40
FD Pts$ 3.30 Statcast Hard% 35.00%
Y Pts$ 3.59 Hard% Percentile 27

See More Stats Made Simple for KCR vs. DET : Try PlateIQ Premium!
MLB DFS Split Stats (2020-2022)
Key Stats vs. L Proj. Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 46.00 Games NA
Expected L 4.00 Expected R 5.00
xFIP L 3.25 xFIP R 3.89
K/9 L 11.38 K/9 R 8.94
BB/9 L 2.51 BB/9 R 2.99
GB/FB L 1.17 GB/FB R 1.19
HR/9 L 1.54 HR/9 R 1.00
Hard% L 37.50% Hard% R 26.30%

See More Stats Made Simple for KCR vs. DET : Try PlateIQ Premium!

Heasley’s a weak pitcher pitching well, while Eduardo Rodriguez is a good pitcher that’s been struggling for most of the year. E-Rod’s 18.4% strikeout rate is 9% lower than it was last year in Boston, while his 4.59 SIERA is a career-worst. I doubt he suddenly became terrible over the course of one offseason, though, and we’re only talking about a 15-game sample. The Royals have hit for a lot of power against lefties (.200 ISO), but they’re also striking out about 22% of the time. KC’s 3.61 total is also the second-worst of the afternoon slate, and Rodriguez is priced down for his struggles at $7,300 on DK and $8,300 on FD. I’m inclined to buy low on him today in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez looks pretty appealing today.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: KCR Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
MJ Melendez 5100 2800 9.04 / 11.37 0.216 / 0.196 0.387 / 0.369 NA
Bobby Witt 6000 3800 8.76 / 10.76 0.214 / 0.184 0.359 / 0.333 9.10%
Salvador Perez 5400 2900 8.67 / 10.71 0.225 / 0.214 0.377 / 0.347 14.20%
Vinnie Pasquantino 3400 2400 8.89 / 11.22 0.189 / 0.207 0.412 / 0.405 NA
Edward Olivares 3700 2600 7.83 / 9.6 0.149 / 0.104 0.359 / 0.315 6.30%
Hunter Dozier 2200 2300 7.45 / 9.28 0.184 / 0.194 0.35 / 0.339 8.20%
Michael Massey 2600 2300 7.29 / 8.9 13.90%
Michael A. Taylor 2900 2000 6.89 / 8.52 0.181 / 0.154 0.341 / 0.308 6.80%
Nate Eaton 2400 2300 6.22 / 7.5 NA

Break down every KCR vs. DET hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

E-Rod has always had a pretty neutral platoon split. So far this season he’s been significantly worse against his fellow lefties (.419 wOBA), which keeps guys like MJ Melendez and Vinnie Pasquantino playable if you’re stacking the Royals here. It’s far from a great spot along with the park downgrade, though, while Bobby Witt and Salvador Perez are both priced up around the industry. I don’t really love anything about this for the Royals.

Optimal Plays – Bobby Witt, Salvador Perez

Secondary Plays – MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Edward Olivares

Stackability – ORANGE

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: DET Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary DK/FD Proj Baseline ISO (L/R) Baseline wOBA Barrel%
Riley Greene 4400 2500 8.07 / 10.22 0.087 / 0.098 0.333 / 0.34 8.80%
Javier Baez 4100 2700 8.52 / 10.69 0.197 / 0.157 0.358 / 0.311 10.40%
Harold Castro 2500 2100 7.28 / 8.96 0.055 / 0.078 0.323 / 0.338 5.00%
Miguel Cabrera 2100 2000 7.1 / 8.9 0.04 / 0.065 0.316 / 0.309 6.70%
Kerry Carpenter 3000 2900 8.38 / 10.64 11.10%
Spencer Torkelson 2500 2000 7.07 / 9.04 0.179 / 0.14 0.34 / 0.305 7.60%
Jonathan Schoop 2700 2200 6.77 / 8.47 0.162 / 0.161 0.31 / 0.295 5.90%
Tucker Barnhart 2100 2000 5.46 / 6.87 0.045 / 0.054 0.281 / 0.28 2.90%
Akil Baddoo 2700 2400 6.34 / 8.07 0.08 / 0.085 0.295 / 0.307 7.20%

Break down every KCR vs. DET hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Heasley’s been quite terrible all around this season, but his numbers against lefties (.370 wOBA, 13% walks, 32% groundballs) are particularly woeful. Detroit’s only got a 4.06 total against him, but that’s still the third-best mark of the early slate. Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter are the top LHBs in the Tigers’ lineup nowadays, while Akil Baddoo and Harold Castro could be useful values in stacks. I’ll still want Javier Baez and Spencer Torkelson for power, especially considering Heasley doesn’t project to be any better against his fellow righties. I’d much rather stack the Tigers than the Royals today, which…yeesh. Let’s get outta here.

Optimal Plays – Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Javier Baez

Secondary Plays – Spencer Torkelson, Harold Castro, Akil Baddoo

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

About the Author

  • Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

  • Taylor Smith is a native Texan (required by all fellow Texans to report this at all times) and a Southern California-based sports writer. He specializes in MLB and NBA while dabbling in a few other sports like a true degen when the other two are out of season. He has written about DFS in the past at Bang The Book, and you can find some of his previous work on SB Nation and FanRag Sports.

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