MLB DFS Picks and Analysis 4/16: The Grind Down

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Friday, April 16. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


ATL vs. CHC


MLB DFS Analysis: Drew Smyly (LHP | -130)

14700 DK ( 29.40% of cap) / 6700 FD ( 19.14% of cap) / 41 Y ( 20.50% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
Projections Rating Statcast Metrics Stats
PlateIQ DK Proj. 14.60 Exit Velocity 89.40
PlateIQ FD Proj. 26.50 EV Percentile 35
PlateIQ Y Proj. 16.20 Barrel % 10.30%
DK Pts$ 0.99 Barrel Percentile 10
FD Pts$ 3.96 Statcast Hard% 40.90%
Y Pts$ 3.95 Hard% Percentile 21

PlateIQ Rating is a matchup score. 50 is average. See what’s baked in with PlateIQ Premium.
MLB DFS Split Stats (2019-2021)
Key Stats vs. L Rating Key Stats vs. R Stats
Games 28.00 Games 28.00
Expected L 2.00 Expected R 6.00
xFIP L 4.95 xFIP R 4.55
K/9 L 8.77 K/9 R 10.82
BB/9 L 3.23 BB/9 R 4.09
GB/FB L 0.81 GB/FB R 0.79
HR/9 L 3.00 HR/9 R 1.92
Hard% L 44.10% Hard% R 44.50%
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About the Author

  • Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

  • Taylor Smith is a native Texan (required by all fellow Texans to report this at all times) and Southern California-based sports writer. He has been playing daily fantasy sports regularly since 2012, going back to the days of DraftStreet (RIP). He specializes in MLB and NBA while dabbling in a few other sports like a true degen when the other two are out of season. He has written about DFS in the past at Bang The Book, and you can find some of his previous work on SB Nation and FanRag Sports.

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