MLB DFS Picks and Analysis 8/11: The Grind Down

The MLB DFS picks, MLB DFS cheat sheet, and MLB DFS projections for DraftKings & FanDuel in the RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis of the upcoming MLB schedule for Tuesday, August 11 . This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on how you can build stacks in the RotoGrinders MLB optimizer – LineupHQ. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, projected ownership, rankings, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Stackability Rating System:

BLUE – One of the top stacks of the slate.
GREEN – A full stack is viable in GPPs.
YELLOW – Not the best stack, but hitters are in play.
ORANGE – Tread lightly, but potentially target a hitter or two.
RED – Fade this offense in all formats.


Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays


MLB DFS Analysis: Elieser Hernandez (RHP | 149)

9600 DK ( 19.20% of cap) / 6500 FD ( 18.57% of cap) / Y ( 0.00% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Rating Statcast Metrics Percentile
PlateIQ: Overall 54.09 K 69
PlateIQ: Strikeout 54.34 BB 70
PlateIQ: Contact 38.87 xWOBA 72
PlateIQ: Production 47.71 xISO 86
PlateIQ: Discipline 63.87 Hard Hit 98
PlateIQ: Context 39.91 xERA 71
PlateIQ Rating is a matchup score. 50 is average. See what’s baked in with PlateIQ Premium.
MLB DFS Stats and Pitch Arsenal
PlateIQ Category Rating Pitch Type Percent
Games 16.00 4-Seamer 54
SIERA 4.40 Sinker 2
K% 24.30% Cutter 0
BB% 7.30% Slider 33
GB/FB 0.66 Changeup 11
HR/9 2.08 Curve 0
Hard% 39.10% Splitter 0
See More Stats Made Simple for MIA vs. TOR : Try PlateIQ Premium

Happy Tuesday! We’ve got a short 2-game late afternoon slate here followed by a beefy 12-game main slate. The Marlins will send Elieser Hernandez to the mound tonight in Buffalo, the new home of the Blue Jays. Hernandez struck out 5 in 4.1 shutout innings against the Orioles last week in his lone start of the season. He threw 66 pitches, so we could see somewhere around 80 from him today. The right-hander showed decent strikeout stuff last season (24.1%), and this ballpark is reportedly somewhat pitcher-friendly. Toronto’s projected lineup has struck out 26% of the time vs. RHP dating back to last year, though there’s obvious power risk. I slightly prefer Hernandez to Kris Bubic among the cheaper pitching options on the early slate, but it’s essentially a toss-up.

Quick Breakdown: This is a decent spot for Hernandez, so I like the savings you can get with him.

MLB DFS Analysis: Hyun-Jin Ryu (LHP | -176)

10400 DK ( 20.80% of cap) / 8700 FD ( 24.86% of cap) / Y ( 0.00% of cap)
Baseball Stats Overview for DFS
PlateIQ Category Rating Statcast Metrics Percentile
PlateIQ: Overall 66.61 K 66
PlateIQ: Strikeout 70.29 BB 30
PlateIQ: Contact 52.68 xWOBA 41
PlateIQ: Production 60.71 xISO 43
PlateIQ: Discipline 69.51 Hard Hit 51
PlateIQ: Context 44.75 xERA 41
PlateIQ Rating is a matchup score. 50 is average. See what’s baked in with PlateIQ Premium.
MLB DFS Stats and Pitch Arsenal
PlateIQ Category Rating Pitch Type Percent
Games 32.00 4-Seamer 17
SIERA 3.78 Sinker 12
K% 22.90% Cutter 27
BB% 3.90% Slider 0
GB/FB 1.95 Changeup 32
HR/9 0.87 Curve 12
Hard% 34.20% Splitter 0
See More Stats Made Simple for MIA vs. TOR : Try PlateIQ Premium

Hyun-jin Ryu turned in a couple of middling starts before impressively mowing down 8 Braves across 5 shutout innings last time out. He had a bit of a short leash (84 pitches), but he topped 90 in each of his first two starts. The Marlins have obviously looked like worldbeaters so far, but they’ve also whiffed at a 24.9% clip against southpaws with a low team ISO of .156 against lefties since the start of 2019. Ryu has only been around average in terms of Ks during his time in the majors. While the matchup is favorable, I’d rather chase the strikeouts of Luis Castillo if I’m spending up for one of the early pitchers. Ryu makes for a fine tournament pivot, especially on FanDuel ($8,700).

Quick Breakdown: Ryu can be a pivot for Castillo, but I’d still rather get to Castillo.

MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: Miami Marlins Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary Y Salary wOBA ISO Hard% Barrels/PA
Jonathan Villar 6000 2800 NA 0.33 0.174 24.30% 3.20%
Jon Berti 5500 2200 NA 0.318 0.123 25.90% 0.00%
Jesus Aguilar 5700 3200 NA 0.318 0.177 37.80% 12.10%
Corey Dickerson 6300 2500 NA 0.357 0.247 30.30% 3.80%
Brian Anderson 6300 3100 NA 0.347 0.209 31.30% 9.10%
Francisco Cervelli 4600 2500 NA 0.288 0.156 33.30% 10.50%
Lewis Brinson 3000 2100 NA 0.201 0.047 37.50% 0.00%
Logan Forsythe 4000 2200 NA 0.301 0.133 50.00% 25.00%
Monte Harrison 4200 2000 NA 0.175 0 0.00% 0.00%
Break down every MIA vs. TOR hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Ryu has been pretty reverse-splitsy as a big leaguer, which bodes well for someone like Corey Dickerson in the lefty-lefty matchup. That said, Ryu is still a quality lefty that generates ground balls and doesn’t allow a ton of power, so I’m not too keen on targeting him. Dickerson, Jesus Aguilar, and Francisco Cervelli seem to be the power targets you’d want from Miami, but this offense has a low 3.45 implied run total for a reason.

Optimal Plays – Jesus Aguilar

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – ORANGE


MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: Toronto Blue Jays Batting

Player DK Salary FD Salary Y Salary wOBA ISO Hard% Barrels/PA
Cavan Biggio 7700 3400 NA 0.338 0.2 23.40% 5.00%
Bo Bichette 7300 3300 NA 0.377 0.253 22.20% 13.90%
Travis Shaw 4600 2300 NA 0.249 0.108 33.30% 8.30%
Teoscar Hernandez 5400 3200 NA 0.331 0.251 45.70% 11.40%
Lourdes Gurriel 5800 2400 NA 0.353 0.249 34.90% 2.90%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 7400 2800 NA 0.326 0.16 36.70% 5.00%
Randal Grichuk 4700 2400 NA 0.305 0.214 33.30% 0.00%
Rowdy Tellez 4300 2600 NA 0.3 0.212 32.40% 3.30%
Danny Jansen 4700 2500 NA 0.272 0.149 17.20% 9.50%
Break down every MIA vs. TOR hitter in seconds: Try PlateIQ Premium

Elieser Hernandez has really struggled with lefties in the big leagues, as they’ve knocked him around to the tune of a .369 wOBA. His K-rate also falls to 18.3% while his walk rate balloons north of 11% vs. LHBs. Cavan Biggio looks like the top hitter from the Jays as a result, followed by Rowdy Tellez, Reese McGuire, and Travis Shaw. Hernandez hasn’t exactly crushed righties, either, so if you want to throw a Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero, or Teoscar Hernandez into your stack I wouldn’t fight you.

Optimal Plays – Cavan Biggio, Rowdy Tellez

Secondary Plays – Bo Bichette, Travis Shaw, Reese McGuire, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Stackability – YELLOW

Statcast Data referenced above per baseballsavant.com

About the Author

  • Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

  • Taylor Smith is a native Texan (required by all fellow Texans to report this at all times) and Southern California-based sports writer. He has been playing daily fantasy sports regularly since 2012, going back to the days of DraftStreet (RIP). He specializes in MLB and NBA while dabbling in a few other sports like a true degen when the other two are out of season. He has written about DFS in the past at Bang The Book, and you can find some of his previous work on SB Nation and FanRag Sports.

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