MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 16th - BAL @ BOS
Baltimore at Boston – 7:10 PM ET
I feel bad for Brooks and tonight’s game hasn’t even started yet. He has struggled all season, giving up home runs in bunches and striking out very few batters. His confidence has to be low after giving up nine runs in his last start and now he has to face the Red Sox in Fenway.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Brooks in all formats.
Porcello will garner some ownership tonight because he’s pitching at home as a huge favorite and he’s facing the Orioles. While I understand the play, take the teams out of the equation. We have a pitcher with a 4.96 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 18%. He’s pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark and he’s facing a team that has been much better against right-handed pitching over the last month of play. This pitcher has struggled against lefties and he’s expected to face six of them tonight.
Quick Breakdown: I’ll let others chase Porcello. I’ll take my chances elsewhere.
Batter Grind Down
This ballpark plays up right-handed power, but we should have more interest in the lefties. Rick Porcello isn’t great against righties, but he has a 50% ground ball rate and a decent strikeout rate against batters from that side of the plate. Against lefties, he has allowed a .342 xwOBA and a .215 ISO. If Porcello does become popular, the Orioles provide direct leverage against him in tournaments. Jonathan Villar (.322 xwOBA), Anthony Santander (.343 xwOBA), Jace Peterson (stolen base upside), and Chance Sisco (.326 xwOBA) are all intriguing GPP plays.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE
The Red Sox are viable in all formats. They will be popular, but the fact that there are 15 games on the schedule should help them from being super chalky. They are my favorite stack on the board, which says a lot given the fact that the Rockies are facing Sandy Alcantara in Coors Field. Aaron Brooks has a low strikeout rate and has allowed a .340+ xwOBA and a .255+ ISO to batters from both sides of the plate. If they can get to him early, they’ll get to feast on the worst bullpen in baseball. Sign me up for any and all Red Sox hitters tonight.
Stackability – BLUE