MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 16th - DET @ TBR
Detroit at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET
Norris sees a favorable park shift pitching in Tampa Bay, but that’s about the only positive that I can find. In 21 starts this season, he owns a 4.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 20%. He is the largest underdog on the board tonight, as he squares off against the Rays. Their projected lineup doesn’t look all that intimidating, but they have enough power to make it tough on Norris.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Norris in all formats.
We have no shortage of aces on the mound tonight, but Morton is easily my favorite. In 25 starts this season, he owns a 3.53 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a ground ball rate of 49%. He’s pitching at home in a great ballpark and he might have the best matchup of any pitcher taking the mound this evening. The Tigers’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .310 with an average k-rate of 25% against right-handed pitching. The only concern with Morton is ownership, but we can look to differentiate our lineups elsewhere.
Quick Breakdown: Morton has a high floor, a high ceiling, and he’s the biggest favorite on the board. If I’m only building one lineup, it will start with Morton.
Batter Grind Down
The Tigers are one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and they have the worst matchup of the slate. This is an easy offense to avoid in all formats. In addition to an elite strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate, Charlie Morton has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 xwOBA this season.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
The Rays are a sneaky offense to target tonight and given how cheap the stack is, you can easily pair them up with expensive pitching. Daniel Norris has a low strikeout rate and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of home runs. On the season, he has allowed a .335+ xwOBA and a .205+ ISO to batters from both sides of the plate. Guillermo Heredia (.345 xwOBA) is a great value if he bats leadoff, while Tommy Pham (150 wRC+), Travis d’Arnaud (121 wRC+), and Jesus Aguilar all have great power against left-handed pitching. The more I write, the more I’m talking myself into a low-owned Rays stack.
Stackability – GREEN