MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 16th - DET @ TBR

Detroit at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Norris sees a favorable park shift pitching in Tampa Bay, but that’s about the only positive that I can find. In 21 starts this season, he owns a 4.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 20%. He is the largest underdog on the board tonight, as he squares off against the Rays. Their projected lineup doesn’t look all that intimidating, but they have enough power to make it tough on Norris.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Norris in all formats.

We have no shortage of aces on the mound tonight, but Morton is easily my favorite. In 25 starts this season, he owns a 3.53 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a ground ball rate of 49%. He’s pitching at home in a great ballpark and he might have the best matchup of any pitcher taking the mound this evening. The Tigers’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .310 with an average k-rate of 25% against right-handed pitching. The only concern with Morton is ownership, but we can look to differentiate our lineups elsewhere.

Quick Breakdown: Morton has a high floor, a high ceiling, and he’s the biggest favorite on the board. If I’m only building one lineup, it will start with Morton.

Batter Grind Down

The Tigers are one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and they have the worst matchup of the slate. This is an easy offense to avoid in all formats. In addition to an elite strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate, Charlie Morton has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 xwOBA this season.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None


The Rays are a sneaky offense to target tonight and given how cheap the stack is, you can easily pair them up with expensive pitching. Daniel Norris has a low strikeout rate and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of home runs. On the season, he has allowed a .335+ xwOBA and a .205+ ISO to batters from both sides of the plate. Guillermo Heredia (.345 xwOBA) is a great value if he bats leadoff, while Tommy Pham (150 wRC+), Travis d’Arnaud (121 wRC+), and Jesus Aguilar all have great power against left-handed pitching. The more I write, the more I’m talking myself into a low-owned Rays stack.

Elite PlaysGuillermo Heredia, Tommy Pham (GPP), Travis d’Arnaud (DK), Jesus Aguilar (GPP)

Secondary PlaysTommy Pham (Cash), Travis d’Arnaud (FD), Jesus Aguilar (Cash), Austin Meadows (GPP), Matt Duffy (GPP)


About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

    Interview after $100,000 Win


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