MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 16th - LAD @ ATL
LA Dodgers at Atlanta – 7:20 PM ET
Maeda is a good pitcher that is priced at a discount, yet I have no interest in him tonight. There are so many good pitchers to choose from and he draws one of the worst possible matchups. The Braves’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .325 with an average k-rate of only 20% against right-handed pitching. To make matters worse, it’s expected to be over 90 degrees at first pitch.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Maeda in all formats.
Soroka is one of many on the list of “good real life pitcher, average DFS pitcher.” He owns a 2.32 ERA thanks to great control and an elite ground ball rate. Unfortunately, he has a strikeout rate of only 20% on the season and that number dips to 16% against left-handed hitters. He’ll have his hands full tonight with the Dodgers, whose projected lineup has an average ISO of .224 with an average k-rate of only 17%.
Quick Breakdown: Soroka is expensive, he draws an awful matchup, and we have hitter-friendly conditions in Atlanta.
Batter Grind Down
It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Dodgers have a big outing. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Mike Soroka have a good outing. In these situations, I tend to avoid both sides of the equation. In addition to an elite ground ball rate, Soroka has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a .110 ISO this season. I like the hitting conditions, but there are better spots to load up on. Joc Pederson (.347 xwOBA), Max Muncy (.389 xwOBA), and Cody Bellinger (.445 xwOBA) are deep tournament fliers at best.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE
The Braves are the preferred offense to target in this game, but I don’t love their matchup against Kenta Maeda. He has an above-average strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA. The good news is that it’s going to be hot in Atlanta and that the Braves have a high implied total. I’m higher on this offense than the matchup suggests I should be. Ronald Acuna (.392 xwOBA), Ozzie Albies (.331 xwOBA), Freddie Freeman (.415 xwOBA), Josh Donaldson (.383 xwOBA), and Brian McCann (.320 xwOBA) all mash right-handed pitching.
Stackability – YELLOW