MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 16th - MIA @ COL
Miami at Colorado – 8:40 PM ET
Alcantara is a low strikeout pitcher with a below-average ground ball rate. He’s pitching in Coors Field in a game that features a total of 12.0 runs. That’s really all that needs to be said.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Alcantara in all formats.
Gray is one of my favorite pitching options of the slate. In 24 starts this season, he has a 4.42 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 9%. He induces a lot of ground balls and he’s had a number of solid starts at home this season. The real reason to like him tonight is a matchup against the Marlins, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .274 with an average k-rate of 28% against right-handed pitching. Even better, they only have one lefty in their projected lineup and Gray has been dominant against righties this season.
Quick Breakdown: Gray is an elite SP2 in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
If you want to play the cheap Marlins in Coors Field, I’m not going to talk you out of it. I mean, we just saw them score a ton of runs against Walker Buehler in Miami. This is the best hitter’s park in baseball, so I certainly understand. Personally, I’m hitching my wagon to Jon Gray in hopes that he can take advantage of this right-handed heavy matchup. On the season, he has held righties to a .315 xwOBA with a 53% ground ball rate and a 24% strikeout rate. I do have interest in Isan Diaz as a cheap one-off, but that’s about it for me.
Elite Plays – Isan Diaz
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE
If you are trying to decide between the Red Sox and Rockies tonight, there really isn’t a wrong answer. Perhaps instead of a full stack of one team you can do two mini-stacks and try to capitalize on the upside of both offenses. Sandy Alcantara is a low-strikeout pitcher that has allowed a .337 xwOBA to lefties and a .165+ xwOBA to batters from both sides of the plate. Charlie Blackmon (.363 xwOBA) and Daniel Murphy (.280 xwOBA) are my favorite targets here, but Trevor Story (.342 xwOBA), Nolan Arenado (.322 xwOBA), Raimel Tapia, and Ryan McMahon are strong options as well.
Stackability – BLUE