MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 16th - MIL @ WAS

Milwaukee at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Houser has surpassed all expectations this season. In nine starts and a bunch of relief appearances, he owns a 3.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a ground ball rate of 55%. That particular skill set is going to translate in any ballpark, as he gives himself different ways to get out of jams. The Nationals are a tough matchup in name, but their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .314 with an average k-rate of 26% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Houser is far too cheap for a pitcher with his strikeout upside. He’s viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Corbin had a breakout season in 2018 and while his numbers have taken a hit this season, they are still elite — 3.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% and a ground ball rate of 47%. We think of the Brewers as this powerhouse of an offense, but I’ve been targeting southpaws against them with regularity. Their projected lineup for tonight’s game has an average k-rate of 28% against left-handed pitching. The only negative I can find with Corbin is that there are a ton of aces taking the mound in tonight’s slate.

Quick Breakdown: I wouldn’t call Corbin my favorite SP1 of the slate, but he’s in the mix. He’s an elite tournament play and a decent cash game option.

Batter Grind Down

Patrick Corbin has been downright dominant against lefties this season, holding them to a .259 xwOBA with a 38% strikeout rate. This immediately takes Christian Yelich and Mike Moustakas off the table. Corbin has allowed a .161 ISO to righties, but that’s not too shabby. The Brewers are playing on the road and they see a negative park shift in Washington. Ryan Braun (.349 xwOBA) and Yasmani Grandal (.383 xwOBA) are the top targets here, but I’m not even sure I would call them secondary plays tonight.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None


The Nationals are sizable favorites in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs. I doubt we see this many runs scored with these two pitchers on the mound. Adrian Houser isn’t a household name, but he might be moving forward. He has above-average ground ball and strikeout rates and has held righties to a .247 xwOBA this season. He does give up power to lefties if you want to give Adam Eaton (.344 xwOBA), Juan Soto (.425 xwOBA), or Matt Adams (.349 xwOBA) a look in large-field tournaments.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary PlaysAdam Eaton (GPP), Juan Soto (GPP), Matt Adams (GPP)


About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.


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