MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 16th - MIL @ WAS
Milwaukee at Washington – 7:05 PM ET
Houser has surpassed all expectations this season. In nine starts and a bunch of relief appearances, he owns a 3.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a ground ball rate of 55%. That particular skill set is going to translate in any ballpark, as he gives himself different ways to get out of jams. The Nationals are a tough matchup in name, but their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .314 with an average k-rate of 26% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Houser is far too cheap for a pitcher with his strikeout upside. He’s viable as an SP2 in tournaments.
Corbin had a breakout season in 2018 and while his numbers have taken a hit this season, they are still elite — 3.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% and a ground ball rate of 47%. We think of the Brewers as this powerhouse of an offense, but I’ve been targeting southpaws against them with regularity. Their projected lineup for tonight’s game has an average k-rate of 28% against left-handed pitching. The only negative I can find with Corbin is that there are a ton of aces taking the mound in tonight’s slate.
Quick Breakdown: I wouldn’t call Corbin my favorite SP1 of the slate, but he’s in the mix. He’s an elite tournament play and a decent cash game option.
Batter Grind Down
Patrick Corbin has been downright dominant against lefties this season, holding them to a .259 xwOBA with a 38% strikeout rate. This immediately takes Christian Yelich and Mike Moustakas off the table. Corbin has allowed a .161 ISO to righties, but that’s not too shabby. The Brewers are playing on the road and they see a negative park shift in Washington. Ryan Braun (.349 xwOBA) and Yasmani Grandal (.383 xwOBA) are the top targets here, but I’m not even sure I would call them secondary plays tonight.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
The Nationals are sizable favorites in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs. I doubt we see this many runs scored with these two pitchers on the mound. Adrian Houser isn’t a household name, but he might be moving forward. He has above-average ground ball and strikeout rates and has held righties to a .247 xwOBA this season. He does give up power to lefties if you want to give Adam Eaton (.344 xwOBA), Juan Soto (.425 xwOBA), or Matt Adams (.349 xwOBA) a look in large-field tournaments.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE