MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 16th - SDP @ PHI
San Diego at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET
Paddack is one of the many talented arms that will get overlooked in tonight’s slate. The crazy part is that he’s significantly cheaper than the other aces ($8,500 on FanDuel and $9,400 on DraftKings). He may not have the same pitch count as others, but he still has plenty of upside to bring to the table with a 26% strikeout rate and a 5% walk rate. He draws a mediocre matchup against the Phillies, but he has to face them in a home run-friendly ballpark.
Quick Breakdown: Paddack should be on your radar if you are building five or more lineups, but he’s unlikely to make my final cut.
Velasquez is one of the more volatile pitchers on tonight’s slate. He has a 26% strikeout rate on the season, but he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of power to both sides of the plate. His outings all come down to whether or not he can miss bats. He draws an enticing matchup against the Padres, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .295 and an average k-rate of 25% against right-handed pitching. It’s hard to deny the upside for Velasquez on a per-dollar basis.
Quick Breakdown: I’m willing to overlook the high total due to the great matchup. Velasquez is an elite SP2 for tournaments.
Batter Grind Down
If you are building multiple tournament lineups tonight, it makes sense to get exposure to the Padres and to Vince Velasquez. We have a high-strikeout pitcher that gives up a lot of home runs and a high-strikeout offense with above-average power. The range of outcomes for both sides is quite wide. On the season Velasquez has allowed a .220+ ISO to both left and right-handed hitters. Josh Naylor (.332 xwOBA), Manny Machado (.332 xwOBA), Hunter Renfroe (.332 xwOBA), and Francisco Mejia (.332 xwOBA) are all viable in tournaments.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – YELLOW
I know the Phillies are playing at home in a great hitter’s park, but I have a hard time justifying any of their hitters in tonight’s slate. Chris Paddack has a high strikeout rate, he has great control, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA this season. The one and only batter on my radar here is Bryce Harper (.389 xwOBA). After hitting two home runs on Tuesday, he hit a walk off grand slam on Wednesday. All of a sudden, the Phillies are firmly in the mix for the wildcard in the National League.
Elite Plays – Bryce Harper (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper (Cash)
Stackability – ORANGE