MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 16th - STL @ CIN
St. Louis at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET
Wainwright has made 22 starts this season, posting a 4.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a ground ball rate of 49%. His numbers are solid as a whole, but he’s better at home and better against right-handed hitters. Tonight he pitches on the road in a home run-friendly ballpark and he’s facing a Reds’ team that has five lefties in their projected lineup.
Quick Breakdown: Unless the Reds decide to roll out a right-handed heavy lineup, Wainwright has more risk than upside.
Castillo is one of the most talented pitchers to take the mound tonight. In 24 starts this season, he owns a 3.96 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30% and a ground ball rate of 55%. Similar to teammate Sonny Gray, he has the perfect skill set for this ballpark. Even though his high walk rate is a small concern, the upside more than makes up for it. With Charlie Morton soaking up so much ownership, Castillo is a strong pivot in tournaments. He draws a decent matchup against the Cardinals, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .302 with an average k-rate of 23% against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Castillo is an elite tournament play, but I do prefer Morton as my SP1 if I’m only building a single lineup.
Batter Grind Down
The Cardinals are starting to get healthy and they see a healthy ballpark boost playing in Cincinnati. With that said, they draw one of the worst matchups of the slate. In addition to having elite ground ball and strikeout rates, Luis Castillo has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA this season. Why take the risk with the Cardinals when there are 29 other offenses to choose from?
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE
The Reds are a sneaky offense to target tonight. Adam Wainwright isn’t known as an exploitable matchup, but he has struggled on the road and he has struggled with left-handed hitters. On the season, he has allowed a .352 xwOBA and a .215 ISO to batters from the left side of the plate. The Reds are cheap and they have quite a few lefties at the top of the order. Jesse Winker (.361 xwOBA), Joey Votto (.345 xwOBA), and Josh VanMeter (.334 xwOBA) all rate out as strong plays and I expect them to be low owned in all formats.
Secondary Plays – Aristides Aquino (GPP)
Stackability – YELLOW