MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 23rd - ARI @ MIL
Arizona at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM ET
Kelly has made 25 starts in his rookie season, posting a 4.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a hard contact rate of 42%. He has struggled on the road and he has struggled with left-handed hitters. This doesn’t bode well for a matchup against the Brewers, whose lineup is loaded with left-handed power. In fact, their projected lineup has an average ISO of .205 against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Kelly is an easy fade in all formats.
It wouldn’t shock me to see Lyles on the winning roster of a large-field tournament tonight. He has been inconsistent this season, but he owns a strikeout rate of 24% and he’s had a number of big fantasy outings. He draws a decent matchup against the Diamondbacks, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .300 with an average k-rate of 22% against right-handed pitching. Personally, I would rather play Vince Velasquez or Mitch Keller at a similar price point.
Quick Breakdown: Lyles is a decent SP2 for tournaments tonight, but I don’t expect to have any exposure.
Batter Grind Down
Jordan Lyles had reverse splits in 2018, but that hasn’t been the case this season. He has allowed a .355 xwOBA, a .288 ISO, and a 2.21 HR/9 to batters from the left side of the plate. The Diamondbacks will basically be un-owned tonight in tournaments, even though they see a positive park shift playing in Milwaukee. Jarrod Dyson (cheap on FanDuel), Ketel Marte (.358 xwOBA), Eduardo Escobar (.239 ISO), David Peralta (.211 ISO), and Jake Lamb all bat from the left side and all have upside against right-handed pitching.
Stackability – YELLOW
The Brewers will be a popular stack tonight and it’s hard not to have interest in a home matchup against Merrill Kelly. This lineup is loaded with left-handed power and Merrill Kelly has allowed a .368 xwOBA, a .168 ISO, and a 46% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. Yasmani Grandal (.345 xwOBA), Christian Yelich (.435 xwOBA), and Mike Moustakas (.343 xwOBA) are all elite tournament plays at their respective positions. If Trent Grisham draws the start and bats leadoff, he’ll become one of the top value plays of the slate. In terms of my favorite stacks, I have the Brewers fourth behind the Rays, Astros, and Twins.
Stackability – GREEN