MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 23rd - ATL @ NYM
Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET
Foltynewicz has had quite the roller coaster of a season. Overall, he owns a 4.91 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 8%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that benefits from playing in big ballparks like Citi Field. The Mets are missing two of their best hitters in Jeff McNeil and Robinson Cano and look like a decent matchup on paper. Their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .313 with an average k-rate of 22% against right-handed pitching. Foltynewicz is cheap and should get overlooked with other pitchers in his price range soaking up all of the ownership.
Quick Breakdown: At the very least, Foltynewicz is worth a look as an SP2 in large-field tournaments.
This slate has no shortage of options at pitcher, regardless of which price range you are looking at. I know that deGrom has the toughest matchup of the aces, but he also has the most talent. In 25 starts this season, he owns a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a walk rate of 6%. He has pitched well against the Braves in three starts this season and their lineup isn’t as intimidating as it was earlier in the year. After the first four batters, deGrom will get to face the likes of Matt Joyce, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Rafael Ortega. The matchup is tougher in name that it is on paper and deGrom’s price point is more than reasonable across the industry.
Quick Breakdown: deGrom is an elite play in all formats. He’s my favorite SP1 on DraftKings and my second favorite on FanDuel.
Batter Grind Down
This is not the game that we want to load up on for hitters. Jacob deGrom is one of the best pitchers in baseball and the Braves have to face him on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Freddie Freeman has a habit of hitting home runs in difficult matchups, but there is no reason to look his way in a slate this size. On the season, deGrom has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
The Mets have more appeal than the Braves, but that’s not saying a whole lot. Mike Foltynewicz does have the tendency to get shelled every now and then, but there are maybe 10 offenses that I would rather stack than the Mets. If you want to chase their upside through one-offs, I certainly wouldn’t fault you for it. Foltynewicz has allowed a .255+ ISO to batters from both sides of the plate this season. Pete Alonso (.309 ISO) and Michael Conforto (.279 ISO) both have great power numbers against right-handed pitching.
Elite Plays – None
Stackability – ORANGE