MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 23rd - DET @ MIN
Detroit at Minnesota – 8:10 PM ET
Matt Boyd was originally scheduled to start tonight’s game, but it looks like VerHagen will take the mound instead. He has struggled in his three starts this season and draws one of the worst possible matchups. The Twins lead the majors in both home runs and ISO. VerHagen is an easy fade as a big underdog on the road in a game that features a total of 10.0 runs.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid VerHagen in all formats.
Berrios hasn’t been in great form recently, but he’s had a string of difficult matchups. He’s had great splits at home throughout his career and draws a bounce-back matchup against the Tigers. Detroit’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .293 with an average k-rate of 29% against right-handed pitching. On DraftKings, it’s a tough decision between Berrios and Jacob deGrom at SP1, but on FanDuel we should take advantage of the huge discount. Berrios is only $8,800 on FanDuel compared to $11,200 for deGrom.
Quick Breakdown: Berrios is an elite play in all formats. He’s my preferred SP1 on FanDuel.
Batter Grind Down
The Tigers have been an easy offense to avoid all week and there is no reason to change our strategy this evening. Jose Berrios has a decent strikeout rate, a low walk rate, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 1.25 HR/9. Meanwhile, the Tigers don’t have a single batter in their projected lineup with an xwOBA above .340 against right-handed pitching.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
The Twins are right there with the Rays and Astros as the top stacks of the slate. They draw an exploitable matchup against Drew VerHagen and will then get to feast on a very hittable Tigers’ bullpen. VerHagen has had reverse splits in his short time in the majors, but he gave up more power to lefties during his time in the minors this season. This is a great spot for the Twins’ offense as a whole and we know they have no shortage of power in their lineup. Max Kepler (.343 xwOBA), Jorge Polanco (.354 xwOBA), Nelson Cruz (.420 xwOBA), Eddie Rosario (.331 xwOBA), and Miguel Sano (.355 xwOBA) are all elite plays at their respective positions.
Stackability – BLUE